Poker Stars, $4.60 Buy-in (10/20 blinds, 3 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
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#37527966
MP2: 1,228 (61.4 bb)
MP3: 1,478 (73.9 bb)
CO: 1,632 (81.6 bb)
BTN: 1,458 (72.9 bb)
SB: 1,468 (73.4 bb)
Hero (BB): 1,428 (71.4 bb)
MP1: 1,545 (77.3 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with T
A
MP1 folds,
MP2 raises to 60, 4 folds, Hero calls 40
Flop: (151) 6
8
4
(2 players)
Hero checks,
MP2 bets 75, Hero calls 75
Turn: (301) 7
(2 players)
Hero checks,
MP2 bets 150,
Hero raises to 400, MP2 calls 250
River: (1,101) 7
(2 players)
Hero bets 890 and is all-in, MP2 calls 690 and is all-in
Is bluffing on this river profitable given the ranges?
villain preflop: AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s
turn cbet/c range vs raise: AA-44,A5s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s,98s,87s (any set, overpair, oesd, two pair)
I was trying to decide whether or not bluff otr to fold out his overpairs and everything that is not a straight. He obv calls with boats and straights
turn range: AA-44,A5s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s,98s,87s (71 combinations)
calls river (boats, straights): 88-44,A5s,87s (21 combinations)
folds river (overpairs) and missed oesd: 71 turn combos - 21 call combos = 50 combos
so he folds 50 out of 71 total combos = 50/71*100% = 70.42% of his range
we risk 690chips (his stack) to win 1101 (pot). So he needs to bo folding 690/1101*100%=62% of his range or more to make this bet a +EV play. Is that correct? So if I did the math correctly and he folds anything but straights and boats, we should be making chips, right?
Thank you