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MTTSNG Discussion and analysis of MTTSNGs.

 
 
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Old 12-03-2016, 09:50 AM   #1
wanderer_pro
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JTo $3.50 45man postflop ICM

    Poker Stars, $3.19 Buy-in (400/800 blinds, 50 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37533618

    CO: 10,333 (12.9 bb)
    BTN: 17,472 (21.8 bb)
    SB: 7,003 (8.8 bb)
    Hero (BB): 21,959 (27.4 bb)
    MP: 10,733 (13.4 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with T J
    MP raises to 1,760, 3 folds, Hero calls 960

    Flop: (4,170) Q K 4 (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP bets 1,751, Hero raises to 20,149 and is all-in, MP calls 7,172 and is all-in

    Turn: (22,016) 7 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
    River: (22,016) 5 (2 players, 2 are all-in)




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    I was thinking about folding this pre, but decided not to. The main reason is that if we fold this combo we would be overfolding bb, I think.

    OR is a good reg. Seems like a steal or nutted hand to me as he min raises off of 13bb here. I think he's good enough to have raise/folding range here (especially that he does not have odds to call the sb). Shoving would be a disaster I think, because we don't have good enough equity when called to justify shoving.

    We flop good equity vs his range. My standard is to shove here, however is shoving the best option given icm and stack distribution? If we shove and lose, we flip stacks and give him CL and we are close in chips with other guys. So maybe calling is best in this scenerio? I also don't think he barrels light ott very often, so we can fold unimproved. What's your line here?
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    Old 12-03-2016, 11:50 AM   #2
    humdrum
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    Re: JTo $3.50 45man postflop ICM

    I would try c/c, and if there's no second barrel on the turn I'd think about leading some rivers as a bluff if I don't make the straight/SDV.
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    Old 12-04-2016, 06:02 AM   #3
    bardaks86
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    Re: JTo $3.50 45man postflop ICM

    his open range is prob this: r/c pre JJ+(other stuff i believe he open jams with these stack sizes) r/f pre KQo and some A7s,A8s hands (depending on SB might call/might fold)

    not look great pre,flop also no so great according to open range.
    as played i agree with humdrum,myb not some rivers but close to 90%

    how you play your Kx hands here?
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    Old 12-04-2016, 11:19 AM   #4
    wanderer_pro
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    Re: JTo $3.50 45man postflop ICM

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bardaks86 View Post
    his open range is prob this: r/c pre JJ+(other stuff i believe he open jams with these stack sizes) r/f pre KQo and some A7s,A8s hands (depending on SB might call/might fold)

    not look great pre,flop also no so great according to open range.
    as played i agree with humdrum,myb not some rivers but close to 90%

    how you play your Kx hands here?
    probably x/c and x/decide turns depending on how aggro he is and if other draws open ott. dont think some players willbarrel very often ott with no equity hands
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    Old 12-05-2016, 01:19 AM   #5
    RobertM
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    Re: JTo $3.50 45man postflop ICM

    x/c flop.
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    Old 12-05-2016, 12:38 PM   #6
    onehandatatime
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    Re: JTo $3.50 45man postflop ICM

    I put for fun the villains r/f and r/c range at 23.7%, as you think he's good enough to have an open/fold and open/GII range. Versus this range and considering the flop we have 41% equity in the hand OTF. After he bets the flop I've narrowed down villains continuing range to 13.9% and your equity goes down significantly to 32%. We know he's not c-betting for fun here considering the stacks so we have no fold equity or implied odds by shoving, so we're risking 11226 to win 11383. approx. 1 to 1 with approx 32% equity, I think it's a fold.

    Overall I don't think this is +ev. Maybe if you were deeper and had some implied odds it would be, but this is not the case.

    Last edited by onehandatatime; 12-05-2016 at 12:53 PM.
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    Old 12-09-2016, 01:22 PM   #7
    LektorAJ
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    Re: JTo $3.50 45man postflop ICM

    I wouldn't much consider GTO-type considerations like whether or not we personally are overfolding in a 5-way pot, which is the number of players left when he opens. The other players are also defending the BB for us in this line where MP raises.

    With this stacksize and ICM pressure Jam or fold pre. But mostly fold without a specific dynamic.
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    Old 12-11-2016, 08:03 PM   #8
    Corpsey
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    Re: JTo $3.50 45man postflop ICM

    Folding pre seems way too nitty, imo.

    Check/calling flop here seems standard with this combo unless you have some specific read on villain.
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