Hi

I am trying to determine ICM values for a satelite and I was wondering if anyone has an opinion or a tool I can use to get some decent values.

Example: pokerstars 1.65$+R sunday million satelite

119 entries. 70 left after addon. total prize pool is 1265$

average stack is 61000

I have 33000

If i divide my chips by the total amount x the prize pool I get a value of 9.77$ (33000/ 4.270.000 x 1265$)

My question is: is this accurate enough or is this number understated given the flat payouts at the top?

It would be accurate if there was one seat but you are so far away from the payout that it's going to be close enough.

^ This.

If they are paying 5 spots and there are 70 left then ICM really isn't a factor this far away from the money. Just get as many chips as you can.

If you need to know a dollar value then the approach you use is fine this far out.

What ICM in satellites is about is that if you have 0% of the chips you average 0% of the seats, but if you have 50% of the chips you don't average 50% of the seats because you can still only win one seat - so chips are not of linear value (in other words every new chip is worth progressively less).

In your case, you (and almost certainly everyone else in the satellite) have so few chips relative to the amount you need that doubling your stack does (almost) double your chance of getting a seat.

Pretty much nil with 33k.

+1 what NellyV said. There's scant use except sillydoodling EV payouts this early on in a sat.