chip difference just 300, but difference in ranges 50%, is this a bug in wizz?



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Your pics aren't working, just like the first pic in the other thread.

Judging by your question, the answer is no.
Because the majority of the math is based on fold equity (i.e. probability everyone behind folds x all the dead money you gain).. The rest is based off how much you lose or gain on average, when called vs. your specific hand. Say for simplicity we shove KQs BvB against a top 10% calling range. Instead we shove 87o, which is around 50% lower in range ranking (according to Stove, for simplicity).... The math vs. a 10% calling range is as followed, for PRE ante 10BB effective..

Probability fold = 0.9 x 1.5BB + probability call x equity gained when called = 0.10 x (0.42 - the equity kqs has vs. top 10, x 20 = 8.4bb, folding would leave us with 9.5 since we fold our SB which is half a BB so on average when called we lose 1.1BB).. so 0.9 x 1.5 + (-) 0.1x1.1 = 1.35 - .011 so on average shoving kqs nets us 1.24BB compared to folding

Now we shove 87o vs. a top 10% calling range, the only difference in the calculation is when called instead of 0.42 we have 0.30 equity. so on average when called, we lose 3.5BB since 0.3 x 20 (the pot when called) is 6bb, 3.5 less than 9.5 which is what we have if we fold. 1.35 + (-) 3.5 x 0.10 = 1.35 - 0.35 so we gain 1BB on average instead of 1.24BB for KQs.

obv this is simplified since it's bvb but the concept is the same. a hand "a massive 50% lower in ranking" doesn't necessarily have way less profitability since fold equity is the same math and when called we don't necessarily have WAY worse equity and even if we do it's significantly scaled down due to the weighting of the probability we get called (which in most cases is reasonably low)

wut? worked fine for me..ok tried another uploader

More than 1bb which is +15%, plus higher edge - seems about right, no?

err ok a slightly different question to what i thought you were asking but same thing applies, just different variable changes.. not a bug. with the calling ranges being the same, what changes is now when you shove and get called, you will lose less on average vs a range ahead of the hand you shove (obviously true with the bottom of your range, which is what your question is asking about) since you are behind their calling range with the bottom of your shoving range (obviously) and you put in less chips.

so if you put in 10BB and get called by 10BB (ignoring antes/blinds) pot is 20BB. if you have 30% equity vs. their calling range, you on average get back 6 since 0.3 x 20 is 6, meaning you lose 4 on average (since you have 10 to start) WHEN CALLED.....
if instead you put in 8BB and get called by BB (ignoring antes/blinds) pot is 16BB, and with 30% equity vs their calling range, which is the same in your pictures, you will now get on average 0.30 x 16 which is 0.48, which is only 3.2 loss on average now when called as opposed t o4.. etc

fold equity remains the same since the calling ranges are the same in both scenarios you showed

Ja thanks for the insight.
But callingranges wont change compared to 10BB, imo change below 7BB.

So who goes with the 8,5BB stack and the 50% range in a 45er? Is that close to reality?

ya, cool. btw wasn't saying they would change (even though they should, people are not very good lol)

How is your starting stack different in the 2 pics, yet everyone elses chips are exactly the same??? LOST!!!!!

he changed it out of curiosity prob. not both real hands (one is)

so that would also be a reason as to why they are different???

Yeah..... but his question was why is the range we can shove "so different" even though the difference in chips is fairly small

btw. the chipedge in both cases is the same percentage of our stack..so that didnt change our calling range, but claydoll already clarified the situation.
Thoug i still dont think someone/ maybe even a good reg would shove the 50% range if he shoves the 25% range with 10BB.

So doesn't it actually tighten up your shoving range if you aim to win 37bb/100 instead of 32.5? I mean, 1bb more in your stack doesn't add up for this, does it? Where's the flaw in my thinking? What range does it suggest for #2 if you set up equal edges, and what edge do you have to set up for both range suggestions to be equal?

I'm not shovin 50% there either fwiw (prob not even 25%) but I seem to be a huge nit anyway.

You're losing money overall from UTG if you shove 26.1% in #1, due to the .125bb ante.

Fold 73.9% = -9.2375bb
Shove 26.1% = +8.4825bb

-> -0.755bb/100

So I think you should have a slightly higher edge from UTG and thus shove tighter. Makes that sense?

i dont get your last two posts...but in general, if opponents have fix calling ranges, no matter from what position we push, then what is the best strategy?!
Low variance late position pushes, or high variance but ev wise correct early position pushes with bottom range?

THe weaker the opponents, we should always prefer the lower variance strategy!
Thus we should take a higher edge the further we are away from the BTN, if the field is weak!

(Thats the strategy behind what was this book named "kill poker" or something like that...make high variance pushes to take the edge away from better players...our strategy should be the opposite.)


Does this make sense?

fmp


I was just thinking loud tbh, idk whether my assumptions are correct or not. Would like to hear some comments on that.

My thinking is that if you shove such a small edge you will lose money overall even though each of your 26%-shoves is +cEV in a vacuum, because a cEV/edge of only .325bb per shove is not enough to outweigh the ante you lose each time you fold (the remaining 74%). You are supposed to shove a range that allows you to make overall profit from each position (except from the blinds), or at least breakeven vs "perfectly" playing villains, no?

Imo it makes sense. I just filtered my stats by 8-12bb eff - EP - unopened, and I'm only shoving nitty 17% but win 13.5bb/100 overall (sample = 19k), which seems to prove above assumption to be correct. (edit: ~12bb/100 without showdown, ~1.7bb/100 at showdown)

Plz do me a favor and figure out the edge for a 17% range in your 2nd example, and then calculate whether that's close to 13.5bb/100 overall.

Plz flame away if I'm totally off here.


edit: it was this post from your other thread that led me to this assumption:
Any comment, mckrogh?

my stats: 13.63bb/100 and VPIP 11.5 with the filter applied you posted......wow i thought that i would be way looser..but this includes also pre ante. With ante i push 15% from UTG1 with 10BB.
PS i play the 45er!
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great thoughts Boabhaa, i will go over that after i end my session for today.
But in short...i know from cash game nitty break even players always have a hughe bb/100, cause they only play strong hands if you exclude the losses from blinding down. So that doesnt is a proof wether your strategy is correct.

if you only push aces, and go over the stats, sure filtered this looks great in terms of BB/100, but you will still be a loosing player!

I bet that's wrong cuz you then only shove .5% of your hands but lose .125bb each 99.5% of the time.

Even if they then still call you with top7% your stack is obv way too small to outweigh the ante.

I said filtered!

Well what filter are you talking about? VPIP=true? Then yea, that would look good, but with the filters we applied to our stats above (EP unopened @ 8-12bb eff) it would read as -xxbb/100 @ VPIP0.5%

Fwiw how can one have a huge winrate in cashgames but still be a breakeven player?

with the same setup, you would have a chip edge of 108, like 5,4% of your stacksize, thats alot, its too much.

Also i just recognized its not EP, we are actually MP1..lol
There i am 16bb/100 and VPIP/PFR= 15%...thats too tight for my standards, my target is 25-30%.


PS:
If you only push aces and filter your bb/100 through position, you will see that except in the blinds your BB/100 would be skyrocketing.
I learned that from Grindcore (during my cash game time) that when you have low VPIP/PFR but still high bb/100 filtered by position, and loose tons in the blinds...+ being a break even player...you are playing too nity!

PS: just see i made a mistake, forgot to apply filter unopened:
16,5bb/100 from MP and 22,5% PFR