Villain is playing 17/11 in a sample of 30 hands. i searched him on OPR and its seems to be a reg but with an average volume of sng games. I think his range in this spot is very tigh ( QQ+, AK). I decided to fold my Kings for ICM reasons. If to think with ICM im pretty sure i took the right decision, of course if i estimated correctly about his range. Maybe is stupid fold, im not so sure so i need help!

this isn`t FT, is it?
dont fold this please!@ enough AQ+ JJ+ in his range.

its final table of a 45 man sng and is exaclty on the bubble

ok, sorry.
im happy to get it in!

So did you just fold KK to 4 bet with 30 bbs effective? This is nowhere near an icm fold, in fact, it's bad and you should feel bad.

Even if he's QQ+, AK, it's still a call.

Please don't fold.

Ouch

I hope he showed you AA

If he is QQ+, AK is ICM fold!!! is -$ EV 1.40..check it on ICMIZER. and i think in a bubble of this kind of games his range is very tigh. we were the two chip leaders that moment and i think he would only do that with a tight range

Even if his range is as tight as you suggest in your OP (QQ+/AK) you have something around 58% equity against him, and with the money already in the pot you only need about 36% to break even in chips. This isn't a satellite, the ICM tax isn't that high, so even if you fold it for ICM reasons, it's still a bad fold.

His range needs to be KK+ only for KK to be a good fold here. Doubt he folds either QQ or AK, certainly not both.

I think you are wrong about the ICM TeamTrousers. If his range is QQ+, AK then:
EV fold: $19.37
EV call: $ 18.33

So i have - 1.04 $EV... is not a big differenece but is still a negative $EV. Of course if his range is so tight as i am thinking. I will not make this fold again as is not realistic to apply in the long run so tight ranges to my opponents but in that particular case i think his rane was pretty tight

what hes trying to say is that this doesnt need to be look at completely in icm ev... check it in chip ev and have a look, even though its the bubble its not that high of a icm spot. anyways yea dont fold kk here

ICM is not gospel.

You shouldnt fold KK ever in a 180 turbo.

Depends on the situation but this one I don't fold.

Well I agree to disagree ;-). I played like 15k 180s and didnt fold KK one time. Format is just too fast and shallow most of the time to make it a longterm good fold. Although I understand your reasoning. There might be an exceptional situation where it can be good to fold it. It just didnt occur yet for me.

45-man ICM is quite a different from 180-man. Final table play is much more complex.

Lets assume there is no limper and the MP3 opened with a 25-30%-ish range. Just for example, we could 3bet with a 10%ish range, now MP3 could 4bet with the same 10%ish range. In a 180man FT we could call that 4bet TT+, AK but in this place at the 45man bubble FT we could do that with QQ+ and maybe AKs is not bad either.

In this situation posted, it is hard to know the exact range MP3 has and calls with. If we'd 3bet all in it would work best vs. any player and range. Any range he calls with is pretty bad to us, so we wouldn't wanna induce any somewhat lighter 4bets at all, I think. For example even MP3's AT+, 99+ range would be bad for us in this bubble situation, to which we can make a mistake calling, too many aces out there. If MP3 is tight enough and folds to our 3bet-shove, good to us and we collect precious 2.4k chips (1/5 our stack) and we wont risk our life. If he's too wide, MP3 would be making a mistake, bad for us and for him but there is bigger chance we'd win a hand.

I'd say 3bet shove and let them make mistakes or fold correctly. Bet-folding is crazy, yes.

This is just wrong.

+1.

I am not saying KK is a fold there vs 99+, AT+, it is quite borderline, not a place to slowplay KK and maybe getting two opponents to the river, I am saying taking 2.4k chips uncontested if folded and 3betting all in as the first action to take would be more +$EV and would result in less variance.

Say wut? borderline?

Nobody advocates to slowplay

3b folding KK here is just atrociously bad. Why on earth would you ever 3bet this hand if you are planning to fold to a 4b jam? thats just a horrible plan to have, if you really want to reduce your variance just flat pre, but 3bet folding is just ridiculous. This is a great example of programs like sngwizard being taken way to seriously and common sense being thrown out the door.

Sorry if this is the wrong thread but to add to the discussion. What about this one then?

Very first hand of the tournament. No HH on the guy or anything.



I don't even think I could fold that on the flop.

Thats a non turbo i believe and I might fold there to be honest. Early stages with a guy 5betting that sizing is not a lot ak/qq, mostly kk but you block it, so i expect aa there a lot of the time. But even when you wrong you can suckout. So my rule of thumb. Never fold KK in a 180 turbo. Cheers :-)