v is on the nittier side running 17/13 over pretty big sample. Break even all year.

Should i just be giving up on this runout? Interested to hear thoughts on my turn play and sizing aswell it would really suck to get x/r shoved ott right? so is that enough merit for checking back? i think he will lead a ton of rivers when we do and sometimes we'll be ahead because of missed draws etc. but it will be difficult to call a bet otr with K high esp if he sizes up. how u guys playing it and what cards/runouts are you guys 3x barreling with ? not sure if we would barrel any T, or K as it gives us reasonable sd value. for sure id say any club, any jack of course. theres gotta be more good barrel cards tho? or am i wrong

I think it's 2 barrel spot vs bbs range here. I would expect him to peel any gutshot Ax Qx and strong 6x OTF and FD. OTT you can easily fold out everything which is not a Ax, so I like the barrel. Sizing is good. OTR tho, I don't think he folds often enough. You still beat the weakest parts of his range (if he's a station and calls with fd and gs). I would not 3barrel this. Also, I don't think that we should be barreling any club OTT with our entire range. I think that betting with our Tc blocker is fine but betting with the whole bluffing range is not so good. BB def range has way more suited combos then you do, so he would have way more fd then hero. I will check this spot and our equities in flopzilla in a sec and post results.

Additionally, vs good villains you could consider 3barreling from different positions. eg utg vs bb. The later your position in spots like this the less likely it is that bb will give you credit and fold Ax by the river IMO.

I was not sure how aggressive hero is and what villain thinks about hero, so I gave him JJ, TT and AQ as a call 50% of the time, as some of the time he would 3b/call those.

SO, Villains def range IMO looks like that (494 combos)


we cbet 372 into 870 (FE required 372/870=42%=207combos)
our hand eq is 43% - reasonably high, but our hand is best on 31% of the time


he calls and stays OTT with that (229 combos, folded 265combos so cbet of this size was indeed +ev) and our eq drops to 28%


we barrel 900 into 1614 (FE 900/1614=55%=127combos)

his range OTR (assuming he folds FD and GSs OTT and Qx 6x and stays with Ax, 2pair+ and pair and fd / pair + oesd, gs hands)
130combos (with this sizing OTT we needed him to fold out 127 combos, but he fold 99 only, so barrel OTT is not profitable v his range, obv assuming we don't get there with our equity)


OTR, our hand is best 3% only. Looking at the board runout and the fact that he is not folding any Ax, betting river seems spewy. He calls 2675 to win 8764 needing 30% eq. I don't think he ever folds there.

So, according to math, betting OTT is a mistake, unless, he calls with gutshots and fd and you then you can check back river and scoop vs his missed draws.

conclusion: barreling vs fish that calls with gs and fd is fine. barreling vs reg that is kinda scared and folds Ax by the river is fine. barreling vs thinking player that knows that draws missed, you are capable of barreling and understands that he needs to protect his calling range and therefore will not fold Ax is not a winning play.

peace

When you are betting the flop, it's worth considering which turns (and rivers) we can barrel as well.

Betting the gutshot + backdoor clubs is fine (especially on the A-high flop which is much better for our range) on the flop, but we really need to plan which cards are good for barrelling the turn as well.

Another ace would be fine to rep, obviously if we hit our gutshot and also a club for a little bit more equity with the, albeit not great, FD.

Turn is a complete brick though so I would just take the free card and re-evaluate on the river.