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AQs 4 handed

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01-20-2014 , 07:28 PM

Adyo

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 462

Shorty is a good reg, doesn't seem to matter much here. Other 2 are randos to me. I suspect initial raiser is a little looser, and a little aggro, and they sort of just built there stack and I've been pretty loose and table captainy. However I have no reads to know that villain can play back in an ICM way. (edit: also we have an obvious skill advantage over the randos, at least pretend that is true lol)

I'm not so good with 3bet/4bet calculators for the ICM but after playing with scenarios I think its interesting and at least worth looking at...

Poker Stars, $13.77 Buy-in (2,000/4,000 blinds, 400 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #22496711

CO: 105,308 (26.3 bb)
BTN: 678 (0.2 bb)
Hero (SB): 109,269 (27.3 bb)
BB: 54,745 (13.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A

CO raises to 8,000, BTN calls 278 and is all-in

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

Last edited by Adyo; 01-20-2014 at 07:47 PM.

01-20-2014 , 09:42 PM

BeauVanny

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 198

Shove seems like a spew imo. I just call and play it safe in hopes of knocking out a player and getting the SnG to 3 handed with the chiplead

01-20-2014 , 09:54 PM

taipan168

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,740

Don't think I'd shove back here. We're deep enough to make it 20,000 to go and fold to a shove aren't we? The alternative would be to flat call and check it down unless we hit the flop.

01-20-2014 , 10:03 PM

fidstar-poker

I'm gonna need a hacksaw

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 32,995

not shoving. calling isn't horrible.

01-20-2014 , 10:17 PM

bardaks86

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 145

shove

01-20-2014 , 10:50 PM

Adyo

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 462

Quote:

Originally Posted by fidstar-poker

not shoving. calling isn't horrible.

then you suggest 3bet. Sizing? Call/fold?

01-20-2014 , 11:45 PM

BeauVanny

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 198

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adyo

then you suggest 3bet. Sizing? Call/fold?

prefer a call over a 3bet, try to bust the all in player

01-21-2014 , 06:45 AM

win4me

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 69

3b/folding this hand is horrific which we are forced to do when facing a 4b shove needing 54% and not getting close to that vs a likely 4b range. Shoving is easily the best option imo.

01-21-2014 , 08:00 AM

taipan168

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,740

Quote:

Originally Posted by win4me

3b/folding this hand is horrific which we are forced to do when facing a 4b shove needing 54% and not getting close to that vs a likely 4b range. Shoving is easily the best option imo.

Why is it "horrific"? Sure, I'm not delighted about raise/folding for 20% of our stack but if you don't want to 3b then I'd much rather just flat call and see the flop rather than shoving against an unknown who might just make a horrific call with something like 88 that loses both him and us a huge amount of equity.

01-21-2014 , 10:21 AM

#10

Adyo

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 462

Quote:

Originally Posted by win4me

3b/folding this hand is horrific which we are forced to do when facing a 4b shove needing 54% and not getting close to that

I'm being neutral in all my posts cause I want to hear all lines/opinions.

But I want to point out that if 3betting is profitable, and we really can't call, then 3b/f can't be horrible. It might not be optimal but its still +$ev.

Also in cev if we can't 3b/c then 3b/f plays better than a shove given villain doesn't shove back significantly (lol word) wider. In $ev it might turn out to be different but we should look at the math, its tough to guess how much.

With what I could do with my limited calc(ulator) skills, I found that 3betting marginal at best (mostly -$ev), yet we have to call AQs to a 4bet shove.

01-21-2014 , 10:34 AM

#11

smithy2588

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 398

I think this is very villain dependant.

v an aggro/loose player I like 3betting to 20k and folding to a 4b. This could work well v this villain since you suspect he may be light here. Although just calling to k.o. the shortstack isn't bad either.

Hate shoving here.

01-21-2014 , 11:03 AM

#12

dguia

adept

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 789

CO knows he haves a ton of FE cause BTN is as good as done. Saying that is the option of 3b not that bad cause he can only 4b us with a very small part of his range and calling with hands we def should be ahead from. Problem is when he folds hands we def crush, but well we cannot get all the options at once either i guess

01-21-2014 , 11:24 AM

#13

BeauVanny

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 198

Quote:

Originally Posted by dguia

so.....?

01-21-2014 , 12:45 PM

#14

dguia

adept

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 789

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeauVanny

so.....?

And..?

01-21-2014 , 03:12 PM

#15

Adyo

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 462

Quote:

Originally Posted by smithy2588

I think this is very villain dependant.

Hate shoving here.

Its true thats why its good we have reads that we have!

Quote:

Originally Posted by dguia

Its good thought but you didn't finish with sizing and call/fold etc?

If we flat, do we have a plan, are we x folding most flops (non ace or q etc.). Seems to me that villain with any competence is cbetting 100%.

01-21-2014 , 04:54 PM

#16

dguia

adept

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 789

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adyo

Its true thats why its good we have reads that we have!

Its good thought but you didn't finish with sizing and call/fold etc?

If we flat, do we have a plan, are we x folding most flops (non ace or q etc.). Seems to me that villain with any competence is cbetting 100%.

Sizing is dependent of what we want to archieve, still with less than 30bb we cannot get that creative i guess.... At first I hate 3b/folding there 'cause if villain is capable of adjust against hero's loose style so fair then he could 4b us lighter than we think he should and then is folding awful. Saying that i def don't like calling because we loose a ton of equity against most of his opening range and we go to the flop with no further info... Also he should def cbet us at the flop and then we are guessing again. So i think that even shoving is more profitable than just calling

01-21-2014 , 06:24 PM

#17

Adyo

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 462

Quote:

Originally Posted by dguia

At first I hate 3b/folding there 'cause if villain is capable of adjust against hero's loose style so fair then he could 4b us lighter than we think he should and then is folding awful.

We should remember its more important what villain will do rather than what they could do. We don't exactly know the answer butthe wording is important I think.

Quote:

So i think that even shoving is more profitable than just calling

Its interesting I think because some people hate shoving and feel its spewy.

Maybe someone is good with a 3bet/4bet icm calculator...?

01-21-2014 , 07:29 PM

#18

taipan168

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,740

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adyo

Its interesting I think because some people hate shoving and feel its spewy.

Maybe someone is good with a 3bet/4bet icm calculator...?

OK, I ran this hand in SNG Wiz assuming CO opens 15% (33+, A8o+, A4s+ and KTs+) and shoving is -$EV if he calls any wider than 2% (QQ+, AKs).

This is why I think shoving is bad - in this spot a villain who knows ICM will know to call only the best hands here but one who doesn't (and that was OP's read) may call wider which is bad news for us.

I can't do the analysis on the 3-bet/4-bet scenario as it gets pretty complicated but I definitely think that either 3-betting or flat calling is by far the lower variance play.

01-21-2014 , 09:39 PM

#19

Adyo

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 462

Quote:

Originally Posted by taipan168

Thx!
Ya the read is we aren't sure, and villain is certainly sometimes a tight random and sometimes a loose random in response to our lines, I doubt anyone thinks villain usually calls only QQ Aks. prob more like TT+ AQ for sure and sometimes quite a bit looser.

Quote:

I can't do the analysis on the 3-bet/4-bet scenario as it gets pretty complicated but I definitely think that either 3-betting or flat calling is by far the lower variance play.

I did what I can with 3bet/4bet and as far as I could tell 3bet (non shove) isn't +$ev vs most scenarios where villain never flats.

01-22-2014 , 01:12 AM

#20

spartan1

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 761

Essentially 3 handed here w AQs, i'd 3b and fold.
jamming is pretty horrid imo.
Flatting is okay, but i wouldnt be giving up to easy post
facing a single cb otf. A small XR otf on most boards are effective, since
villain will try to win the side pot uncontested a ton.

01-22-2014 , 01:59 AM

#21

emitnulB

veteran

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 3,444

3b/call and call are both reasonable. I'm not really going to discus how to proceed on the flop because there's like a million different scenarios that can arise.

01-22-2014 , 05:45 AM

#22

MasterJ009

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,386

How can shoving 26BB here ever be bad? OR is aggro, shortie goes allin and we have a monster 4handed.
3bet/fold is so bad it's funny with 26bb and AQs.
3bet/call is only good if we stack off with 100% of our range.

01-22-2014 , 07:16 AM

#23

bardaks86

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 145

Quote:

Originally Posted by MasterJ009

+ 1
to others STOP seeing monsters,perfect stacksizes to take chiplead

01-22-2014 , 09:45 AM

#24

Ihearthunder

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 56

Quote:

Originally Posted by fidstar-poker

not shoving. calling isn't horrible.

+1

Fidstar, what's your nick on pokerstars bro?

01-22-2014 , 12:24 PM

#25

BeauVanny

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 198

Quote:

Originally Posted by dguia

And..?

whats your point for that post? you just kind of restated what everyone is saying.

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