I recently started paying attention more to ICM spots as I play more 45mans sngs. I believe ICM influences us much stronger then it does in 180mans. IMO in 180s its more profitable to play for top 3-4 spots and don't worry too much about ICM in the begining/middle of FTs. It's not like I completely ignore ICM in 180s. It's more like playing something between ICM and FGS, thinking about how winning/losing will change playability of our stack.

In this hand tho, I was pretty sure about my fold due to ICM. We have 4 regulars on the table and OK stack left to play with. Do you guys care about ICM in this spot a lot? It seems like a super nitty fold and I need somebody to tell me that Im wrong and folding is a move here.

hrc says that he should be shoving 49.8%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K3o+ Q2s+ Q8o+ J2s+ J8o+ T6s+ T9o 96s+ 86s+ 75s+ 64s+ 54s which I don't think he is, so I have changed it to 23.7%, 22+ A2s+ A6o+ K8s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T8s+ 98s 87s



Do u ever fold TT and AK here? Madness

I call with aq. TT and ak are high five the cat get it in. Ajs is fold gii

I concur with the philosophy that we should just fold to the gold.

Sigh-folding AK here. You're going to find better spots to abuse the others on the table.

Close call.

gotta agree

I just aint folding AK and TT here but AQo is a fold.

Guys on these levels dont have good 16-19bb shoving ranges so im like 99% sure he aint shoving even that wide

It's less than 12bb effective.

If they aren't even shoving that wide then it's going to be even worse of a call with AK/TT.

There is some merit to calling and then being able to run over the table... but then you have to weigh that up against the times where we're going to bust unnecessarily in this spot.

my post is ridiculous then, i missread stacksizes (tought he have a guy covering him )

If you are playing loads of tables and don't know the answer, open the hand history and look if he has been jamming loads of hands (many of the recent pots will be down as he wins a small pot).

This is actually not correct. The strongest ICM point of a 180 FT is 7th place. The area between 6-8th places is where ICM will have the most influence on your play.

ok I don't play 45 man but this still feels like a call to me. The bottom of my calling range. The thing is at this buy-in people are going to call wider then GTO underestimating ICM tax, and therefore Shover can not shove as wide as GTO.
So yes op is right to tighten Shoving players range but if you tighten it still further so it has proportionately more stuff we dominate, the Ax hands and less stuff we are only slightly ahead of like suited connectors.
hang on minute ive just noticed op range he used the 23.7% now I don't just use the slider when giving villain a range but at 23.7 the range given would include A2o+ yet op has capped it of at A6o+ but hes included 87s which isn't normally included until range is 55.5%
I'm all for tweaking to give more realistic shoving ranges but it seams like we have scewed it massively to make AQo a fold by including all the stuff we are only marginally ahead of (so when you account for ICM tax) and excluding all the stuff that should be in the range we dominate ( enough to make up for ICM tax.) my HRC subs run out so I guess I will need it to run hands like this.
Yes I don't play 45 man but I still think AQo is a call.
Oh and also as Corpsey eluded to HRC will not assign any value for gaining the chip lead and applying pressure to table. Which if we are getting folds from aq in spots like this is obviously very valuable.

^^ I think shoving ranges are going to vary by how wide we are going to get called. There are going to be spots on 45man FTs where we're going to be better off shoving A2s than, say, 77; due to the fact that the ranges are so thin.

If we are going to get called, would it be better to have live cards or be dominated?

more like 36%... but whatever... when i have to shove, im much more happy to shove 76s 87s than A3s than A7o etc...

that's a good point! and I think true, we should scew to some extent to account for Ax. But it all depends on the perceived calling range as well. Its not all Ax vs Ax there is mid pairs. Consider the equity of a5o being called by 1010 then consider 89s equity when called by 1010.

If peeps are folding ak here whats their calling range JJ+

and one other thing we never capped villains range. I think we can cap of AA probably kk. I don't think a min raise would look to suspect at his stack size at this BI ( perhaps it should with the effective). Unless he has been shoving a lot then a min may look suspicious and he would most likely rip it even with AA but we haven't been given any stats or real game flow considerations in the op.
**** more to say but got to go work, but one other thing I may just be completely wrong lol.

If this guys is a regular this would be an easy call for me, because this is exactly the spot were regulars have to abuse their stack and push wide on other people i mean in his case look. you're considering a fold so if everyone else is thinking like you he will get called once every 15 hands in these spots at which point his stack would already be 25-30k just because of your nitty folds.

I had similar situation (45man turbo FT)


and another one, also 45man turbo FT

With AJ it's -EV call regardless of pusher range, so it's easy fold. That is because there are micro stacks, i think.

I remember spacegravy and Chip Ferguson rewieving 9man turbo, and the situation was:
1 short stack - fold, 1 big stack - goes all in, and hero with middle stack.
Hero had AKo, and the result of their calculation was also to fold AK in this spot, because of this short stack.

^^ Those two examples are somewhat different. It matters less on the ICM side if we are the shortest stack at the table. Also, I'm not sure the ranges that are being raised into us are correct. Certainly in the second example, villain will be heavily capped with the shove sizing.

This isnt correct.

Not folding in this spot with these stack sizes against most villains. Key question is whether villain is jamming their entire range with >17bbs. I think you can frequently remove premium pairs from their range (min open) and suppose their likely holdings are weighted towards smaller pp and then a bunch of hands you dominate (AK excepted).

Why not?

Actually....slightly row back on what I said given effective stacks are closer to 12...but still, premium hand likely min raises a good proportion of the time to fake some fe.

already had this discussion with you. Not going to do it again.

Lol uh yeah it is.

ICM bubble factors reach their maximum at 7 handed. I think you can make a case that the downward pressure that the ability to stack-swing in later hands has on "real life" ICM ... that downward pressure is greater when we are earlier in the FT rather than later and that might be enough to make the ordering of "real life" ICM bubble factors different to normal ICM bubble factors - particularly when the normal bubble factors at a 180 final table are really close to each other - they don't "peak" in the way 45 man bubble factors do.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19...ctors-1504943/

That's why I was interested in what Leia Amidala had to say about it. I didn't realise we'd already discussed the matter (I always forget names).