Kinda annoying spot. I think MPs range is tighter than usual due to the shortstack, but def still think I'm ahead of his range. If you're folding this, are you also folding AQ and AK?

Easy call readless. Not to mention how easy the call with AQ, AK is.

Ez call. He is about to hit the BB. When I'm in that spot with 7-8BB I'm pretty wide.

Even with a shorter stack than you at the table?

yes, you are miles ahead of his range and if you win the hand you are the big stack and a good chance to win it.

So at what point does it become a fold?

What kind of range you got him on?

very easy call , readless he has 7 big blinds, you are very often ahead of his range

Call. Would probably fold A9o, read dependent.

He can be shoving some worse aces, worse broadways, low pocket pairs, and even higher suited connectors.

AJs is around 55-8% against that range (depending on how many weaker aces). AQo 58-60% and AK 60-3%.

The value of winning is very high and if you lose you have greater than 0 fold equity on another shove; you're not completely dead.


A9 is 46-50% against that range, which is fine to shove, but imo too wide to call. A10 is marginal (around 49-55%). Most people would call, and it's fine, but it's closer than you might think and highly sensitive to whether the villain folds the worst aces and/or the worst pocket pairs.

With 7bb on the villain you're fairly safe, but against some villains on 8-10bb, A10 would actually be a fold.

this. Also it's only costing us 42% to have 55-58% equity.

While in this example the BB called, that won't happen very often (maybe 5%).

If I were you I'd ask the STTers. You're always going to get an answer of "easy call" when asking MTTSNGers (including me) about ICM heavy spots, but we're probably all wrong.

I'm folding readless there in an 18.

Calling and losing leaves you 5/5 with the CL to your left and you need to get every shove past him.

Calling and winning isn't going to boost your equity hugely as you'll be roughly equal with second and you won't be able to open up too much with the gained chips as you'll still have the CL to your left.

In an ICM vacuum it looks pretty close depending how you range villain but with the factors above I'm folding.

I like Krobens thinking, you gotta be pretty tight in this spot unless you feel that the pusher is way wider than he should be here. blinds have just gone through us and stacks dictate that 1 player gotta gamble it up pretty much this orbit. If he is a reg I snap as he is about to hit the BB so should be wider than nash. A random I fold as his range is gonna be tighter than it should be. You gave limited info (i.e non) about the players so your not gonna get any kind of definitive answers.

Easy call for me with AJs. It's 50/50 for me with AJo. But suited I'm making that call every time. Plenty of stuff in his range that you have equity over.

This looks like maybe a close call. It's a fold if he's shoving nash, which is 17%, 44+ A2s+ ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ QTs+ QJo JTs.

Folding isn't horrible and there are certainly lots of players who it'd be correct to fold against.

disagree. Can you prove what you said? Why can't we call if he is shoving nash. Makes zero sense to me.

Because it's not +$ev, or to put another way it's not in the nash calling range for us here. I have no idea how this can make zero sense to you.

Why don't you post the holdem-ressources calculation? At least you could have said that is your source. I asked you to prove it. Is it that hard to post a link to the calc?

HoldemResources Nash Results

Yeah, you are right. Wasn't aware that 5 players is right on the bubble in these 18mans though.

I no longer had a link to it after you asked me to prove it.
When I said it's a fold if he's shoving nash, then gave the exact nash range, I assumed it would be obvious to anyone remotely familiar with nash what my source was, my apologies if this wasn't the case.

Np, just post next time the calc right when you do it. But thx for the correct advice and sry for the rude tone.