PokerStars - $2.28+$0.22|10/20 Ante 3 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+2: 77.55 BB (VPIP: 22.45, PFR: 20.61, 3Bet Preflop: 13.64, Hands: 148)
CO: 73.7 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
BTN: 73.2 BB (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 13.34, 3Bet Preflop: 5.79, Hands: 717)
SB: 73.7 BB (VPIP: 24.47, PFR: 18.93, 3Bet Preflop: 10.45, Hands: 333)
Hero (BB): 74.7 BB
UTG: 74.7 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
UTG+1: 74.7 BB (VPIP: 34.29, PFR: 8.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
MP: 74.7 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
MP+1: 78.05 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)

9 players post ante of 0.15 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.85 BB) Hero has A A

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero raises to 5 BB, MP+1 calls 4 BB, fold

Flop: (12.35 BB, 2 players) J 9 3
Hero bets 9.85 BB, MP+1 calls 9.85 BB

Turn: (32.05 BB, 2 players) J
Hero bets 10.55 BB, MP+1 calls 10.55 BB

River: (53.15 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 52.5 BB and is all-in, fold

MP+1 wins 53.15 BB


Player is unknown.

OTF i bet 60% not to leave him good odds for fis fd (but just haven't considered Limp/calling pre seems he doesn't know to play.
OTT the top card doubled, I slowed down my engines and cbet only 1/3 of the pot
OTR i just assumed he just called with his flushdraw and gave up.

After analysis, now I would just shove the turn prolly

What would you do different?
Also, any reasons for bet/folding about 450 ott?

Thanks

Most will say 5 BB is a bit big pre. I do 4 but I think 5 is fine with these massive antes though. Obviously it should be the same with all hands and not just because you have AA.

Your flop bet is more like 80% not 60%. I don't much like the turn sizing. I would just keep barrelling. We can't check-fold so we lose a bet against a J anyway. On the river, well maybe you induced this with slowplay or maybe he got there with the J or heart. You don't know because of the weird sizing.

Regarding sizing generally, you hit the flop with 69 BB effective stacks and 12 in the middle. I would go something like 8BB into 12BB on the flop, planning for 19 into 28 on the turn and setting up the final 38 into 56 on the river.

Yeah I prefer Lektors sizing.

The thing about the line you take when you 80% flop bet small on turn and check river you can just get blown off so often if villain know's what he's doing (if he knows you're pretty capped at overs in this spot). Like if I was villain in this spot and had any decent heart blocker I'm just jamming because it puts so much of your range in a ****/sigh fold spot.

Granted this villain who limped MP+1 like has A4hh or something and is weighted to many stronger hands when we make some generalisations about his image. Just the thought of calling river in this pot vs this villain is pure spew, it's kinda spew even if you're right and call vs reg, that's what makes it such a sick and bad spot to be in as hero.

I prefer lektors sizing but the thing is when we decide to bet river in this spot, what worse hands are calling and what better hands are folding, maybe we get a jack to fold (wishful thinking vs a guy who limped mp+1)

More I think about more I feel it's a tough spot.