fold, fold, Hero raises to 66.00, MP+1 calls 66.00, LP raises to 270.00, fold, BTN calls 270.00, fold, fold,
Hero???
My thinking was that the only hand I'm probably behind here is LP, but he's so tight so far I think I can get him off the hand with a c-bet if the flop is dry.
I'm calling 204 with pot of 717, which is 3.5:1, so am I definitely seeing a flop here?
The immediate pot odds are tempting but you're sticking ~25% of your stack in with a hand that is either a)crushed right now in at least one spot or b) will have to be folded on the flop a huge percentage of the time.
Pushing has some merit but a very specific turn of events will have to play out in order for me to feel good about it. (LP calls with exactly AQ/AK - Button and MP+1 both fold.)
fold. I think its too early in the tourney and your pocket nines cant have much of an edge 3-handed. With higher blinds level its another decision but now fold.
So let me refine my line a little more...I agree with the fold vs. 10/5 in general, but I felt with so much dead money in there it was worth a call, and secondly it's only 20 hands so I can't really attribute too much value to those numbers yet - I mean, it's only just over 2 orbits. If it was 100 hands or more, I'd be confident that I'm crushed against that range and the action so far. I had a hard time with this hand because I didn't really know how much credit to give those numbers so early. Is that just flawed thinking?
I felt that either check/folding the flop or c-betting the flop was better than shoving with my 9's against his range pre-flop, because I can rep a set if the flop is dry.
I ended up c-betting the flop and took the pot down uncontested, so his most likely holding was AKo.
Depends on villain but yeah, I fold as standard. 3bet ranges are so nutted in these spots. Also, raising to 2.2x at this stage of the tourney is horrible given that your range is made up entirely of value hands. 3x at least.
Also, re:comments above, open limping is HORRIBLE. Over-limping with 4 limpers before you would be ok but even then I think open shipping is better. As for just open-folding - WOW. Seriously? If you're scared about playing pocket 9s with 30+bbs in a 180 then you should just give up and find a new hobby.