8$ 180SnG FT 4 left - is this a total spew? - MTTSNG -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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8$ 180SnG FT 4 left - is this a total spew?

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06-09-2012 , 10:59 AM

biceps

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 1,478

Poker Stars, $7.34 Buy-in (2,000/4,000 blinds, 400 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13149271

BTN: 29,056 (7.3 bb)
SB: 138,996 (34.7 bb)
BB: 83,208 (20.8 bb)
Hero (CO): 18,740 (4.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5

Hero raises to 18,340 and is all-in, BTN folds, SB calls 16,340, BB folds

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

06-09-2012 , 11:33 AM

hardcoreUFO

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,281

I like it. You still have some FE, 75o is not completely awful, getting the BB next hand is massively -ev for your stacksize.

06-09-2012 , 03:14 PM

Martypartyy

banned

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 77

super std

06-10-2012 , 07:37 AM

MangoBall

adept

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 809

Tough. may as well go for it.

06-11-2012 , 07:59 AM

Chindo_Nights

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 994

it's connected and you are the shortie - and don't have bad equity against typical calling hands - I'm jamming this

06-11-2012 , 08:07 AM

Tregon

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 281

What's the worst hand you guys would ship in this situation?

06-11-2012 , 08:49 AM

Puppy2209

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 30

Quote:

Originally Posted by hardcoreUFO

I like it. You still have some FE, 75o is not completely awful, getting the BB next hand is massively -ev for your stacksize.

I don't think there is some FE... I'd rather call ai on BB. But I'd shove here any suited.

06-11-2012 , 01:10 PM

hardcoreUFO

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,281

Quote:

Originally Posted by Puppy2209

I don't think there is some FE... I'd rather call ai on BB. But I'd shove here any suited.

By my calculations the BB is not even 2:1 to make the call, so I'll always consider at least some FE here.

06-11-2012 , 04:46 PM

musaire

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 271

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tregon

What's the worst hand you guys would ship in this situation?

If I would sit on every position at that table I wouldn't push more than 25-35% of hands from CO vs. myself.
40% would be the max I'd push against anyone.

75o would be very bad. There are 75% of better hands than 75o. Our next hand is much better on average and we can call with that pretty wide on BB easily vs. atc-push and still fold the worst hands then too.

So yes, it is a total spew.

06-11-2012 , 05:09 PM

#10

hardcoreUFO

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,281

Quote:

Originally Posted by musaire

Except that only the SB will push atc into us. Also there's -1bb to be added to our stack when we call the jam since we are the bb now. in the first case we're picking blinds + antes + possibly our entire stack/entire stack -sb/entire stack -bb + FE. in the second scenario we're very unlikely getting a walk (if sb is indeed atc we never are) + we only get our entire stack/entire stack -sb + antes. you need to add all that into the mix before claiming this is a total spew because we're likely getting a better hand in the bb. a better hand in the bb will only seldom show more profit than getting it in now.

06-11-2012 , 05:28 PM

#11

musaire

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 271

Quote:

Originally Posted by hardcoreUFO

you need to add all that into the mix

Yes, it is all added into the mix.

We can call with 60-65% next hand if SB pushes and wait for the better hand with the rest of the hands. Plenty of time to push later.

We need to wait for the better hand with such a small FE. It doesn't matter that our stack is small. We can double it up when we're actually ahead and there is 50% chance we're ahead next hand already when the SB pushes.
We don't need a walk next hand often enough for this to be a fold.

Losing +/-1bb doesn't matter much in ICM-situations.

06-12-2012 , 04:36 AM

#12

Chindo_Nights

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 994

Quote:

Originally Posted by musaire

can you explain as my understanding is that ICM massively overvalues shortstacks - surely this +/- 1bb makes a huge difference?

06-12-2012 , 04:42 AM

#13

Chindo_Nights

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 994

Quote:

Originally Posted by musaire

sorry missed this

06-14-2012 , 03:38 AM

#14

biceps

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 1,478

TY all for responses and I am still into shoving this. Idk why. seems perfect

06-14-2012 , 09:26 AM

#15

DeJammer

newbie

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 22

We're shovIng atc there no?

06-14-2012 , 10:54 AM

#16

furo

deviation of equilibrium

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 29,639

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeJammer

We're shovIng atc there no?

yea

if they know we shove ATC we should jam slightly tighter, like 85%ish.

06-15-2012 , 03:19 PM

#17

musaire

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 271

Quote:

Originally Posted by furo

yea

if they know we shove ATC we should jam slightly tighter, like 85%ish.

Not sure this works. ATC and 85% is too wide.

Anything over 40-50% is too wide and if they knew we'd push ATC and they are good I'd push no more than 30%.

06-15-2012 , 06:20 PM

#18

Glitlr

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 4,682

seems very nice. well done

06-15-2012 , 06:47 PM

#19

intclock

veteran

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 2,666

85% sounds about right

Having the next shortest stack on our left means we can't wait for him to bust. Gotta do work.

06-15-2012 , 09:22 PM

#20

analyser2

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 38

PokerStars NLHE Tournament, , t2000/t4000/t200 blinds, 4 handed, 30%/20%/11.9%/8%/6.5%/5%/3.5%/2.6%/1.7% payouts

{Tournament|PokerStars|22||2000|4000|200|180-Man}
Hero: t18740 4.5 BBs{Player|Hero|18740|7d|5d}
BTN: t29056 6.9 BBs{Player|BTN|29056|None|0|Overridden|49|46}
SB: t138996 33 BBs{Player|SB|138996|None|0|Overridden|24|17|66|17}
BB: t83208 20 BBs{Player|BB|83208|None|0|Overridden|168|17|44|17|80 |17|15|17}

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7

Hero?

Opponent calling ranges when hero pushes:
BTN (25+), SB (36.3+), BB (44.2+) (if these are good assumptions)

SNG Wizard says that this is a clear fold. We can push with the top 20-25% only. Based on Nash we can push top 25%.

I don't really understand where does that 100% and 85% push comes from. Is it intuitive or is there any math behind?

06-16-2012 , 04:39 AM

#21

musaire

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 271

Quote:

Originally Posted by analyser2

Is it intuitive or is there any math behind?

Can't see any math there, me too. It is just a short-stackophobia, I guess.
25 - 50% is good.

06-16-2012 , 07:03 AM

#22

furo

deviation of equilibrium

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 29,639

Quote:

Originally Posted by musaire

25 - 50% is good.

and 70-85% is better.

06-16-2012 , 12:28 PM

#23

mckrogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 6,495

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glitlr

seems very nice. well done

Glitlr itt woooooot???

But yes, nice hand op!

06-16-2012 , 02:11 PM

#24

biceps

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 1,478

I kind of got to the bottom of this hand and as I look at it now, I think it's a f.

06-16-2012 , 02:30 PM

#25

sjalala

newbie

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 45

Quote:

Originally Posted by furo

and 70-85% is better.

This sounds about right if he knows we are shoving wide.. If he doesnt we shove atc imo

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