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4.50 180.  Fold this river ? 4.50 180.  Fold this river ?

06-19-2012 , 02:11 AM
No reads to hand.

    Poker Stars, $4.10 Buy-in (15/30 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    UTG+1: 1,470 (49 bb)
    UTG+2: 2,960 (98.7 bb)
    MP1: 1,200 (40 bb)
    MP2: 1,620 (54 bb)
    MP3: 2,170 (72.3 bb)
    Hero (CO): 5,464 (182.1 bb)
    BTN: 1,755 (58.5 bb)
    SB: 4,060 (135.3 bb)
    BB: 3,095 (103.2 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with J A
    5 folds, Hero raises to 90, BTN folds, SB calls 75, BB folds

    Flop: (210) 9 J 6 (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets 105, SB calls 105

    Turn: (420) 6 (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets 210, SB calls 210

    River: (840) Q (2 players)
    SB bets 780, Hero ??

    06-19-2012 , 02:47 AM
    Nope
    06-19-2012 , 07:20 AM
    wow, that's the ugliest card that could come :/ He has a lot of draws in his range and Q completes them, or catches top pair for him, hands like KQ, QJ, KT, T8, QT, Q9, or hands like 99 or J9 for the nuts. But he also has some bluffs in his range, like any busted FD or a hand like KJ, JT, T9. However, readless and looking at his sizing, I think it could be a fold, a random player wouldn't call two streets and then fire almost 1/4 of his stack OTR on a bluff, unless he's really a bluffy spew-tard, in which case I would call more liberally. And against the range I assigned him we don't have the odds to call.

    Board: 9c Jc 6h 6s Qd
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 37.984% 37.98% 00.00% 49 0.00 { AdJs }
    Hand 1: 62.016% 62.02% 00.00% 80 0.00 { 99, ATs, A8s-A7s, A5s-A2s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, KTo+, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+ }

    I am tempted to call, but I would wait for a better opportunity because I am still pretty deep with like 150BB. What did you do?
    06-19-2012 , 08:14 AM
    Fold, this is rare a bluff and its rare u beat anything here.
    06-19-2012 , 09:11 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by XMenCypher
    I think it could be a fold, a random player wouldn't call two streets and then fire almost 1/4 of his stack OTR on a bluff, unless he's really a bluffy spew-tard, in which case I would call more liberally.
    +1

    Hardly a bluff
    06-19-2012 , 11:14 AM
    3 most likely scenarios:
    You were beaten anyway with A6, J9, 99 etc.
    Draws got there - KT, T8,
    SB had a draw and the Q gave him top pair - KQ, QT, Q8, QcXc etc.

    There is such a thin part of his value range you beat (basically KJ) and so few villains would bluff. We are certainly not good anywhere near 32% of the time here.
    06-19-2012 , 12:14 PM
    Nuts, meet Dave .. Dave, this is Nuts.
    06-19-2012 , 01:15 PM
    thx for replies.

    I think its a clear fold. folded in play. nobody c/c's 3 streets then bombs river as a bluff or for value with < AJ.
    06-19-2012 , 04:44 PM
    Yeah, it's kind of a sick spot, but a good fold.
    06-20-2012 , 01:09 AM
    Readless call a smaller sizing cause of the missed draws, to this sizing just meh/fold
    I think it's very clear to bet flop and turn bigger since you will get paid for sure (and their calling range is fairly inelastic in general anyway)..
    river isn't that ugly fwiw, only KT gets there, QT (or QJ) almost never bombs river like this
    06-20-2012 , 07:28 AM
    fold
    06-20-2012 , 08:33 AM
    more on flop/turn, at this BI they call alot more than they will semibluff/bluff vs balanced sizings.
    easy fold.

          
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