Imagine you have same stack as button =13k or so, how wide can this villian profitably just jam? Say its all hands X [hint: a lot of hands are in X because of the huge bubble factor.] Now suppose just for arguments sake we have the hand in question and he minraises some range... it is close to X, probably a bit wider. Maybe he raises less cuz he can get abused, maybe he raises more since he figures you won't play back and he can get away with that. From easy analysis of X it is clear we have to felt AQ, so definitely pushing is better than folding. But what about call, 3b/f, and 3b/c?

First, 3b folding is not a bad strategy because we want to represent a "pure" bluff sometimes (still suited or w.e to have equity vs random all ins) vs some villians that would click too much here. For example, say X is 35% (I donno what it is actually, too lazy to calculate), say most people minraise like 40% there, but some villians that are aggressive... there are some villians where they would click to 2x with 50% here or more, and play 8% at you. Meaning they are folding 84% or more of the time to this ... and so with many hands you can 4x and show a big big profit (there is 4.2bb or so in the middle before you act, chance of someone calling behind is low and you have decent equity). Remember if his raise gets past you, it is a very very +cev spot as the blinds are bound to play really really tight vs his perceived decently strong range. Also with almost all regs he is never calling when we cib 3bet, so now we are risking < 4 bb for him to decide whether to put 25 in or not.. attacking his weak range. This is why small 3betting when we have the lead is a sound play, because we are representing this credible attack on his overexposed range, and the bubble/bubblefactors are affecting his play and his risk to reward ratio, way more than it affects our play and our risk to lose our equity in the tournament [because if we go all in and lose, we dont bust, we still have decent equity.]

Also if he is a reg, the fact that it is a $35/180 may entice him to push Axs or even a worse hand thinking you can be semi-fos, since if he is a reg he is playing say 3r 8 15 35 so 35 is a "high" buyin and people tend to do more spewy fps stuff / play more aggressive overall if they perceive the tournament to be higher. I dont agree with the notion that somehow a tiny 3bet looks scarier and gets less action than usual. You are equating your range with his range which is not a good idea. Theoretically when you put less money in, your range is theoretically weaker. Now, obviously to some players it will seem scarier but that helps you anyways because vs these nits you want him to herofold 99/AQ type hands anyways. But to many players, with all factors considered, he may rip it wider than what he calls jams with. The only question is whether you will induce from too many pairs which you do not want to play against to make it worth it. My initial reaction is no.

But again all factors considered.. we are in position, we have some padding incase we get allin and lose [not necessarily going to bubble], there is a big bubble, I think 3925 is clearly the best play.

Note btw that if the stacks were reversed between you and the villian then I think jam is clearly the best play.

never say never dude (justin bieber quite ). when regs see another reg doing something redic they automatically assume it's a power house hand. if it's a rando then don't do it. you must know your perceived image and abuse the **** out of it. + it's on the bubble no-one's going to want to phuck about with such an odd line by a reg there there

not saying button mash vs regs. im saying it's ok to do it sometimes. and tbh this looks like a good time

ps did u change your avvy for me? i swair we had the same one and i spite called u for it and the next day u changed it to a diff avvy of space or smth <3

pss ur next dylan

Some pretty good strat ITT.

This is just crazy though. Games are changing bro.

I could be wrong but for me, it's the same reason we can't 3f-fold with 25bbs as to why we can't raise-fold with 10bbs. Because we'd be getting the odds. In MOST cases when reg shoves over your 3-bet you're needing around 40% (probably maths **** up) and in MOST cases you're getting that. Ok maybe 40bbs was a bit high, I could throw in the odd 3b/f all the way down to 30bbs minimum, but it would always be in such exceptional cases that I'd probably hardly ever do it because I'm playing too many tables to think about it, to examine villain's stats etc. Guess it's ok deep in an MTT with lots of dynamics going on and with plenty of time to think. But for mass tabling SnG's is just so isn't required.

You said "for the same reason you can't raisefold 10bb." But infact you can raisefold 10bb and even smaller.....

Lets put it this way, blinds 25/50, and you are playing someone headsup, and both of you have 500 chips. If he never flats, what would you rather do: minraise or go all in?

@Double ice:

If we minraise in your example we risk 75 Chips to win 75 Chips. So it has to work 50% of the time to be profitable. If Villain doesnt reshove more than 50% we can Raise ATC. When villain reshoves we get 1.5:1 odds and need 40% to call. If he reshoves 30% we can Raise/call 22+,A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J9s+,A2o+, K8o+, QTo+, JTo and Raise/fold the rest.

Is this the correct explanation why we could have a raise/fold range with 10bb or less ?

some responses ITT seem weird to me.
he is calling off wider than he is 4bshoving? what kind of reg is this?

sanity!
5k/c seems a bit too much reading my first response. ~4.3k/c i'd do

we can have a r/f range with 10BB as easy as a 3b/f range in this spot (or ~20BB eff) and sometimes its even correct to 3b/f a hand as strong as AQ here (not here tho)

? What of course, if you are villain are you happier to jam TT on a small 3-bet or to call a 3-bet shove?? Only really bad regs/players will 3-bet fold in this spot so a 4-bet jam having fold equity is irrelevant. A small 3-bet is on average stronger than a 3-bet jam ainec

You're completely wrong

care to explain pls?

depends on your 3b%.
if you dont 3bet much your small 3b is prolly to induce jams.
however this is a great spot for a light 3bet and if i have like A8s in villain's shoes i am way more likely to 4betjam it than call off unless its vs a nit obv in which case just lolfold regardless of his 3bsizing.

sry, i meant in this exact spot that is. Obviously in other spots where it would be more common to actually 3-bet light (and/or 3b/fold) then a small 3-b isn't necessarily stronger and we can be happier to 4b jam light or whatever etc etc

edit: also maybe you are referring to how icm applies here and 'he who jams has the power' in which case 3b call is even worse in this specific hand with aq but whatever

furo if you are 4b jamming light here as villain vs a small 3b you are probably burning money vs. most regs in this spot
no disrespect or whatever. also 3bet stat, like many stats, is probably pretty bad to use for 180s unless its a big sample and someone has an extreme (VERY low or VERY high). the stats get heavily disproportioned because of early/mid/late stages, e.g. even vpip/pfr 10/9 over 3k hands can be a really good reg who is shoving very wide late game etc

depends on what you think is a light 4bet in this spot.
i dont think ATs/AJo/KQs/66-88 are light 4bets if we frequently 3b light but if we 3betjam he cant call with these stacksizes.
and if he thinks 1 step wider and realises that A2s has about the same Equity and blocker value than AJo in this spot vs our 3b/c range his 4b range widens alot.
and yea you get alot more money from me if you 3b/c in this spot and you happen to have it.

this is a really good point!
but i ignore ICM in this spot because of metagame cause if i 3b light i have to have AQo in the 3b/c valuerange vs a reg even if its -$EV for this spot (i think its close vs someone who thinks in this spot like you, which is fine obv). if not we will just get exploided and loose money in future spots.

I'm not necessarily advocating this, but I'd be curious to get some discussion going on the merits of flatting. Not only should this look ridic strong in villain's eyes, but the chances of one of the blinds shoving over and putting MP in a really gross spot is super high, and if he just flats the blinds' shove if it happens then we can jam to iso. If we get to a flop we pretty much minraise any cbet from MP.

Just thinking out loud.....

MTTs are dead

Really nice thread btw

howmuch u lose?

You didnt answer my question, but it was kind of rhetorical anyways. Obviously if they never flat it is strictly better to min than go all in.

Also your bolded part is wrong, it should be "If villian doesn't fold more...". He can call too, you know.