Hi all havent played in awhile and as such havent posted in awhile. Ive always had trouble with these spots.. obviously this is +cev to call but in terms of $icm i believe its a fold... anyone care to chime in here what are you guys doing and why?? are you guys leaning more towards icm or chip ev here

Thanks in advance!

PokerStars - $3.19+$0.31|5000/10000 Ante 1000 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 14.61 BB
UTG: 21.74 BB (VPIP: 19.02, PFR: 18.24, 3Bet Preflop: 4.52, Hands: 644)
CO: 18.42 BB (VPIP: 19.57, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 46)
BTN: 11.84 BB (VPIP: 12.92, PFR: 13.02, 3Bet Preflop: 7.59, Hands: 209)
SB: 27.89 BB (VPIP: 25.35, PFR: 23.88, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 72)

5 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2 BB) Hero has A 7

fold, fold, BTN raises to 11.74 BB and is all-in

use ICMizer?
pretty sure it's +EV both ways though
pretty sure it's even the most +EV move you could make at this point

Suposing villain is competent and aware of ICM i don't think is so wide opening because the other stack sizes. Saying that and with 14bb behind i think we can find a fold here.

^ what he said

close fold, but calling can't be terrible.

okay thanks for the replies guys! In game i was stumped and folded.. then thought id made a mistake, after i ran it in icmizer i realized maybe not but still wasnt quite sure! guess its close either way

Hey there,
I think folding is not the best play here, i mean u have an ace high against a btn shove. I am a regular at this games and i shove j10s from villain's position. with an ace high there u are almost 58-60% against any two random cards. Given the fact that u told u just started playing again,the adjustment towards the game is vital. Like i am sure alot of regs would agree with a snap off there. U have to remember any ace that he has is also going in. Think of the combo of cards he is shoving there, K5o+.k2s+..Q9o+,Q5s+(ofc this is assuming he is competent). With this games, u really want them chips, r/f in the future spots etc.. Given all this, i would defo call..

Sorry if my explanation is wrong. Do let me know if u a want to have a chat in future hands..etc..

PS: Open for criticism!!

Cheers..

Hey Net,

I definitely agree that we are ahead of his range of hands.. if we are using icm i think its really borderline a call/fold.. depends just how wide we think he is shoving.. when i give him like 38% then its a slight call.. and if i give him 35% its a slight fold..

Perhaps something can be said for gambling here to get a bigger stack and play for first.. Anyways yea i would be happy to discuss some hands with you i recognize your name from pokerstars, we've actually played quite abit together in these games! i would really be interested in what you think of my game( its hard to be critical of my own game)

I think the BTN shouldn't take ICM into account too much, because he is the shortest stack at the table with just 11 bb. It's also shorthanded. ICM doesn't take into account the speed of the blinds going around.

Thus the BTN should use a looser range than ICM suggests imo, especially if he thinks the blinds will fold too often. Myself I just switch to chipEV Nash if I would be the BTN, but I don't know if that's the best approach. FGS should give you the answer, but I haven't studied FGS yet and I'm not the best at ICM.

close one, i think we can disount QQ+ AK.
i am more inclined to call, even though i dont love it

i am almost always just shoving QQ/AK here

Nash call is (12.7%) 55+,A7s+,A8o+,KJs+

I think ICM limits us to calling here as it is crippling to lose this.
I would want to dominate a range before calling here.

If I am desperate my Ax(bleh) call usually starts at A8o which is coincidentally nash here.

Much rather shove and make someone else think than risk calling with A6 or A7.

I'd rather call with A5 than the above cards if I had to.

I think your only ahead to start may 1/3 of the time and mostly you are facing better connected or suited cards... so you gambling on your A only.

I think it is easy to find a fold here without any good reads on opener. He seems tight over a small sample. I say pass, until you've see him get out of line then widen your range.

33% 22+,A2+,K5s+,KTo+,Q6s+,QTo+,J7s+,JTo,T7s+,97s+,87s

Is Nash ICM open for the BTN... how much wider do you think he is opening here? I doubt someone with his stats (albeit over a small sample) is going to be open shoving wider than 78s, Q6s, JT, A2. In fact I doubt very much he is open shoving Q6s with over 10BB at the FT, even if it is the correct thing to do.

I think BTN should play ~ chipEV Nash. Something like 43%: 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s+, 54s+, A2o+, K6o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o.

Almost a year ago I played without ICM and had no clue about it and I was crushing a lot, even $15 180 mans. See sharkscope: IFish2Luck. After I learned about ICM, it became worse and I think Nash ICM is overvalued these days nowadays. You should really adjust, especially against not-regs.

Imo it's not worth it with a shortstack to play exactly Nash ICM, especially shorthanded.

You played 150 15$ 180mans with a completely ran hot for a 45%ROI, you did not start losing because you learned ICM.

I am not knocking you as a player, far from it.

I just hate your " I was crushing 15$ 180mans before I learned ICM then it became worse." That reasoning is hugely flawed.


I think it is far more reasonable to say:

"I was crushing because I was running good. Then I started to learn, and variance evened out a bit. Now I know ICM and am a profitable player over a reasonable sample at various stakes. ICM is not the only factor in good decision making but it a where you start to make adjustments from. And in my opinion this is a spot where we can adjust and deviate from nash due to table conditions and game dynamic."

seriously you can't argue with math, and ICM is math that you tweak to certain situations.

Yes, I was running good too, but there are so many factors. The early game was way softer that time. I left those games when I wasn't in the zone any more, ran bad and suddenly heard of ICM.

In my opinion, your goal in ever 180 is to go for 1st place. I don't say ICM Nash is not correct mathematically! Still, it's not always useful. It's very good to minimize variance and maximize profit. But, in some situations it's not useful at all, as I see nowadays.

I think in situations like the hand above, when you're the shortest stack with just 10 bb at a shorthanded turbo final table, the BTN's "extra value" is somewhat strange to model and overvalued in this situation, because it's a turbo and it's also shorthanded. BTN should play wider than Nash ICM imo. http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/maximax

It's very simple: using a maximin (ICM Nash) strategy (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/maximin) is not always optimal, because sometimes you have nothing to lose but could gain a lot of money if you're not blinding out and/or able to see some clashes and/or win the SNG for a higher place than 5th.

As I have said in other posts, there is more than one correct way to play, and Nash and ICM are not optimal in all situations. I am not arguing with you on those points.

Also if you think the BTN should play wider than Nash at a shorthanded final table when small stacked because the value of the BTN position is hard to model, then that's all cool. That's your opinion and something you believe in your experience. (I would like to hear a detailed reasoning behind your theory. eg. Why is it strange to model due to turbo and shorthanded?)

Like I said in my post, I was just calling your out on your 15$ 180 man stats and the statement that learning ICM caused your winrate to decrease.

Lastly (he is my controversial statement), I don't think we should be playing 180's to get 1st place. I think we should be aiming for top 3 spots. This goes for MTT's too. We should be pretty happy in 2014 to score a top 3 with better players and fast structures. I think always shooting for first can lead to spew vs players that are increasingly more aware of table dynamics, icm and correct ranging techniques. I see more and more players calling near perfect compared to previous years and edges are slim. Consequently I see decent reg opening in the money ranges tightening. This is one of the reasons why I think A7 is an easy fold here.

Yeah, I agree people are tightening up. Even with a shortstack, some people seems to play even tighter than Nash... I don't know why, but it is very bad. It has something to do with the crisis I guess.

The main reason I quit $15 was because I became very inconfident about my game when I studdenly heard of ICM and ICM Nash.

Hmm, if I calculate BTN's chances of not getting into a Nash ICM push spot in one orbit, it will be around 10-15%. That's very low to my surprise. Blinding out wouldn't be a problem in most cases. So, it's probably still best to use ICM Nash even in situations like this and adjust well from there.

hey this has gotten way off topic but i thought id just chime in. I find the whole thing about 180s is you need to be pretty confident in your game because the variance is gonna be crazy so its hard to see without a huge sample if your making the right plays... ive also gone through periods where i feel like im the best player in the world and cant loose then over the next 200 games i feel like i forgot how to play... playing 180s and even just mtts youve gotta try and be level headed and think about the long run if possible.

also fishing just to let you know ive known alot of players that literally play almost entirely on "feel" they do have abit of icm knowledge and what not but havent studied it extensively but instead just rely of past exp. sometimes when players like this decide to try and learn icm or w/e it may be it messes with the way the think and confuses them and changes the way they play... seems like thats what your talking about

Yes, variance is killing. Running extremely bad too.

ICM has changed my game and my results. It's just a learning curve to improve my ranges.
I know I should still adjust them well against different tables and players. That's very important.

i consider my self new to the game after a long 3 year break and still re learning the game. i play a lot of this as well and i totally agree. read/hud first then ICM if there is no solid read or stats.