3.50 45man ICM says fold?? FT 5 handed - MTTSNG -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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3.50 45man ICM says fold?? FT 5 handed

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12-01-2011 , 11:06 AM

Matt Wolfe

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,248

villian has been fairly tight up to this point

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.5 Tournament, 600/1200 Blinds 75 Ante (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t5693)
MP (t24536)
Button (t6469)
Hero (SB) (t19556)
BB (t11246)

Hero's M: 8.99

Preflop: Hero is SB with K

, A

1 fold, MP bets t24461 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls t18881 (All-In), 1 fold

12-01-2011 , 11:09 AM

mckrogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 6,495

Im only folding if Britney Spears stands in my doorway!

Spoiler:

Last edited by mckrogh; 12-01-2011 at 11:14 AM.

12-01-2011 , 11:24 AM

striiing

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 4,402

you still have ace high and he has you covered but it looks so pretty. tough fold, really tough fold

Spoiler:

12-01-2011 , 11:41 AM

ValuetownJL

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 1,436

cant ever justify this as a fold, i am NEVER folding here, snap off

12-01-2011 , 12:04 PM

JanF13

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 71

call--> hold aigainst 78s --> win this SNG

12-01-2011 , 12:05 PM

D33P

old hand

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 1,986

+ 1 on snap.

12-01-2011 , 12:10 PM

streetwalkincheeta

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 5,132

Why is everyone snapping here? I'd fold, it's not like you're guaranteed to get first if you call here and busting is pretty bad with these stacksizes.

12-01-2011 , 12:44 PM

liamof

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 350

It's a fold with these stacks. If you fold you can expect to get 1st, 2nd or 3rd usually. If you call and lose which happens about 40-45% of the time you get 5th. If you call and win you'll probably get 1st or 2nd. If you do the math its a pretty clear fold.

ICM is not perfect but it's recommendations are mostly reliable when you're not short and calling off vs. a bigger stack.

12-01-2011 , 03:13 PM

Downrock

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 299

I hate to fold it.. and I never do. That being said... I probably play wrong in this spot every time.

12-02-2011 , 12:51 AM

#10

musaire

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 271

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckrogh

Im only folding if Britney Spears stands in my doorway!

That is when I'd be snapping.

Easy fold otherwise.

12-02-2011 , 12:57 AM

#11

4 card brett

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 146

ya fold

2 stacks are so dead

just fold

12-02-2011 , 08:11 AM

#12

OMGClayDol

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 11,062

calling is probably icm suicide just fold

12-03-2011 , 05:44 AM

#13

AcidManner

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 382

JJ+

12-03-2011 , 06:01 AM

#14

JanF13

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 71

I thought about it a second time, calling here is never +$EV (according to wiz). Against a really loose villain, it is probably ok to call (future game bla bla bla), but generally this is a clear fold, although I hate it.

JJ+ seems fine

12-03-2011 , 06:16 AM

#15

LOLsamplesize

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 62

at first glance this looks like a call.... and against a total spew box who doesn't care about icm then its a snap call.

But if the villain is competent with the stack sizes as such, I like a fold.

12-03-2011 , 03:06 PM

#16

jonrempel

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 30

Quote:

Originally Posted by streetwalkincheeta

Why is everyone snapping here? I'd fold, it's not like you're guaranteed to get first if you call here and busting is pretty bad with these stacksizes.

My thoughts exactly. I dont think our equity edge against villains range, even if its fairly wide, is enough to justify calling here.

How tight does wiz have us calling here?

12-03-2011 , 03:26 PM

#17

LoveThee

adept

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 1,013

The reason why we should fold is only because there are 2 shortstacks and we are already in the final table. If we were on midstage or if those 2 shortstacks were midstacks I believe this would be a call from here to china.

12-03-2011 , 04:54 PM

#18

Cpt.Hero

adept

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,020

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonrempel

My thoughts exactly. I dont think our equity edge against villains range, even if its fairly wide, is enough to justify calling here.

How tight does wiz have us calling here?

If we exclude QQ+,AK from his Range and let him shove up to 10% it says call JJ+.

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