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3.50$ 45 man - shove? 3.50$ 45 man - shove?

12-22-2015 , 12:08 PM
Hey guys - should I shove here? (this is FT )
Everyone is pretty reg-ish

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $3.19 Buy-in (500/1,000 blinds, 60 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37199004

BB: 6,914 (6.9 bb)
MP1: 7,672 (7.7 bb)
MP2: 3,466 (3.5 bb)
MP3: 13,097 (13.1 bb)
Hero (CO): 8,144 (8.1 bb)
BTN: 19,860 (19.9 bb)
SB: 8,347 (8.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K 9
3 folds,HERO?
12-22-2015 , 12:54 PM
Dumping this one,mostly for ICM reasons. We have a ubershortie here with 3 BB who is very likely to bust in a short amount of time, its good chance it happens next time he is in the BB and is forced to take his chance and go with whatever he has.

Jump up a spot in payjumps and let ubershortie bust first- then take it from there.
12-22-2015 , 01:00 PM
Ok, great point, thanks.
Can't we see it the other way though? (just and idea)
Any good reg will see that I am shoving for more than 8 bb and that there is a super shortie < 3bb. Therefore, they'll put me on a super strong shoving range (because of what you said previously, i guess we only shoving monsters) and have a ridiculous calling range (JJ+?)? Which would mean that I am almost never called?

Basically what Im trying to say is cant we take adv. of this ICM pressure?
This is just a thought I had while reviewing my session.
Hope you understand what I mean.
12-22-2015 , 01:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChipsNcrisps
Ok, great point, thanks.
Can't we see it the other way though? (just and idea)
Any good reg will see that I am shoving for more than 8 bb and that there is a super shortie < 3bb. Therefore, they'll put me on a super strong shoving range (because of what you said previously, i guess we only shoving monsters) and have a ridiculous calling range (JJ+?)? Which would mean that I am almost never called?

Basically what Im trying to say is cant we take adv. of this ICM pressure?
This is just a thought I had while reviewing my session.
Hope you understand what I mean.
Yes, absolutely a good and valid point. The premise for this principle to be effective though is that you make sure you are shoving into players who are good enough to be on this level of thinking (and is capable of executing strong folds), and that is for sure not always the case at this stakes.

However i find that its more important to take advantage of ICM here with simply letting ubershortie bust first before you put your stack at risk without a super premium.

Another bonus is that while you are waiting out ubershortie to bust first other players can also find themself in setups/big pots with eachother and possibly knock out more players=you make more money without even risking a chip.
12-22-2015 , 07:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChipsNcrisps
Ok, great point, thanks.
Can't we see it the other way though? (just and idea)
Any good reg will see that I am shoving for more than 8 bb and that there is a super shortie < 3bb. Therefore, they'll put me on a super strong shoving range (because of what you said previously, i guess we only shoving monsters) and have a ridiculous calling range (JJ+?)? Which would mean that I am almost never called?

Basically what Im trying to say is cant we take adv. of this ICM pressure?
This is just a thought I had while reviewing my session.
Hope you understand what I mean.
Your thinking is on the right lines. There is a kind of balance between shoving too much and not enough. Yes, if were shoving only monsters and therefore getting called by JJ+ then it would be +EV to add hands, and keep doing it till it gradually became +EV for them to add more hands until a balance is found (the hands in your pushing range and no others are good enough against their calling ranges, which are made up of hands good enough against your pushing range and no others).

Nash calculator says the balance is at 31.5% 22+ Ax+ K4s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s
more details:

http://www.holdemresources.net/h/web...4&s8=&s9=&s10=

Perhaps you are surprised K9o doesn't rate as a top 31.5% pushing hand in this situation - it's not as good as you think it is then

Generally I think villains play too scared in terms of pushing and calling at these tables, but 7-handed in a 45 is an exception - people think in terms of "now we're in the money we can loosen up" when actually we still have a long and relatively straight pay-ladder ahead. The ICM pressure here is comparable to 4-handed in a 9-man SNG but the others don't realise it and may well call too loose (e.g. SB is not folding 88 here even if the calc says he should) so I would be playing tighter than the above - depending on reads.

      
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