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MTTSNG Discussion and analysis of MTTSNGs.

 
 
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Old 12-08-2016, 02:48 AM   #1
stacker604
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$3.5 18 man - RR w JTs in BB vs SB confrontation

I'm 3rd postition of final 5. I get JTs in the BB of 300. SB raises and has me covered, but I feel like it's just a bully move so I shove.

Is this too reckless in this spot, or is this hand ok?



PokerStars - 150/300 Ante 25 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 17.19 BB
UTG: 26.84 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 22.73, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 22)
CO: 10.72 BB (VPIP: 23.26, PFR: 20.51, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 43)
BTN: 14.06 BB (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
SB: 21.19 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 18.60, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 45)

5 players post ante of 0.08 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.92 BB) Hero has J T

fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 17.11 BB and is all-in, fold

Hero wins 5.42 BB
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Old 12-08-2016, 06:07 AM   #2
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Re: $3.5 18 man - RR w JTs in BB vs SB confrontation

Probably wreckless, 18 PFR isn't lagtard but still more than capable of 100% steal attempts, nevertheless flatting this juicy hand is by far the most optimal option imo.
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Old 12-08-2016, 12:15 PM   #3
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Re: $3.5 18 man - RR w JTs in BB vs SB confrontation

Calling this and probably jamming 77+ AJo+. This hand plays very well post flop, but 17bbs is still a little too deep to be jamming it. I'm going to plug it into icmizer when I get home. What do you think villains raise/calling range is? Or push range?
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Old 12-08-2016, 10:18 PM   #4
stacker604
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Re: $3.5 18 man - RR w JTs in BB vs SB confrontation

Quote:
Originally Posted by onehandatatime View Post
Calling this and probably jamming 77+ AJo+. This hand plays very well post flop, but 17bbs is still a little too deep to be jamming it. I'm going to plug it into icmizer when I get home. What do you think villains raise/calling range is? Or push range?
To be honest, I didn't really think about his exact range. I saw he had a bigger stack than me and we were in a bubble position, and he had seen me play very tight at that final table, so I guess my tight play had me thinking people would try to exploit me. I'm not saying that's the correct way to think, but rather my line of thinking at the time. I believe I saw his stats appeared to be a slightly looser and more aggressive, but not a lag-tard by any means.
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Old 12-13-2016, 08:44 AM   #5
LektorAJ
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Re: $3.5 18 man - RR w JTs in BB vs SB confrontation

JTs doesn't play that well post flop with an SPR of 2.7 against an uncapped range.

Are we going to stack off on the bubble on the turn or river with 2nd pair 3rd kicker? Or are we just going to call flop and see if he gives up? We can do that with 2 blank cards.

Ok we might flop a semi-bluffing hand but on the bubble it needs to get through a lot more and once villain has his top pair it's going to be difficult to get him off it.
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Old 12-13-2016, 10:52 AM   #6
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Re: $3.5 18 man - RR w JTs in BB vs SB confrontation

Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ View Post
JTs doesn't play that well post flop with an SPR of 2.7 against an uncapped range.

Are we going to stack off on the bubble on the turn or river with 2nd pair 3rd kicker? Or are we just going to call flop and see if he gives up? We can do that with 2 blank cards.

Ok we might flop a semi-bluffing hand but on the bubble it needs to get through a lot more and once villain has his top pair it's going to be difficult to get him off it.
I dont play these anymore but I'm just interested what your calling range is if it doesn't include this? (assuming you have a calling range)
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Old 12-13-2016, 12:27 PM   #7
LektorAJ
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Re: $3.5 18 man - RR w JTs in BB vs SB confrontation

It would depend a lot more on how the person has been playing blind versus blind up to now and also if he's been raise-folding against other players or just raise-calling with these kinds of stack sizes.

Without reads I would assume he is pretty nutted here and there is no flop on which I would feel good about stacking off (with JTs) with less than 2 pair so there is no reason to call off 10% of my stack pre-flop. In that case I don't really have a flatting range and would just toss this hand. That's not to say I wouldn't sometimes get FPS and flat KK+ here

If I've seen him raise-fold a bit before then a shove with JTs and plenty of other hands is fine.

If he's been making these raises a lot then I would call all kinds of stuff (including this), and try to take it away post-flop in position.

The important thing is, if we're talking about whole-stack play then chips won are worth only half as much as chips risked on this bubble which is why I would hate to play post-flop against a strong range. For example with a normal pot-sized shove on the river under chip EV we need to think villains are bluffing at least 1/3 of the time. On this bubble we need to think it's 1/2 of the time and we are never going to be able to call against a strong range.

Last edited by LektorAJ; 12-13-2016 at 12:34 PM.
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