V stats 8/4 after 27 hands (I know that it is small sample)

Fold or shove?

Poker Stars $2.28+$0.22 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t500/t1000 Blinds + t100 - 8 players - View hand 2459154
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG+1: t16904 M = 7.35
MP1: t24408 M = 10.61
Hero (MP2): t13864 M = 6.03
CO: t14547 M = 6.32
BTN: t9572 M = 4.16
SB: t39594 M = 17.21
BB: t13616 M = 5.92
UTG: t21344 M = 9.28

Pre Flop: (t2300) Hero is MP2 with 9 9
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t3000, Hero ?

jam

it's a small sample size. I mean after raising this hand he is now a 12/8

hmm tough,

facing early position 3x, no info other than tight, you gotta figure you are flipping or crushed most of the time.

what do you think a jam will get this nit to fold that he is opening 3x?
I would assume he is calling almost all of his opening range.
Maybe he folds AJ 77 88 ATs maybe.

I think a fold could be found here if you look really really hard and had a good read.

But there is already about 1/3 of your stack in the pot.

You need about 42% vs a nitty range. IMO you have this with 99.

So jam it in, a fold would be a bad decision me thinks.

getting it in, gl ul if beat here...

In my opinion getting it in is pretty easy .

Let ' s go over some math .

If we assume he never folds to our shove we are risking 13.864t in order to win 16.164t (500 SB + 1000 BB + 800 ante + 13.864 (effective stack) ) .
In other words 1:1.16 . So we need 46% equity .

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.26 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
PLAYER_1 AA-66,AxKx-Ax9x,AxKy-AxTy,KxQx
PLAYER_2 99
1222585056 trials (exhaustive)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
AA-66,AxKx-Ax9x,AxKy...	50.2052%	49.5722%	1.2658%	606062640	15476076
99	49.7948%	49.1619%	1.2658%	601046340	15476076

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.26 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
PLAYER_1 AA-88,AxKx-AxTx,AxKy-AxTy,KxQx
PLAYER_2 99
1078751520 trials (exhaustive)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
AA-88,AxKx-AxTx,AxKy...	54.1301%	53.4703%	1.3196%	576812148	14235204
99	45.8699%	45.2101%	1.3196%	487704168	14235204

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.26 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
PLAYER_1 AA-TT,AxKx-AxJx,AxKy-AxJy,KxQx
PLAYER_2 99
842453568 trials (exhaustive)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
AA-TT,AxKx-AxJx,AxKy...	58.5738%	58.3735%	0.4005%	491769588	3374316
99	41.4262%	41.2260%	0.4005%	347309664	3374316

These Graphs Show us that even against a very tight range we are only mising 4.5 % equity .
If we now consider that he may also fold some % of the times and the fact that players rarely 3x with AA and KK we can confidently shove here .

I would fold only against notoriously tight opponents . Or regulars that i know they only min raise monsters with that stack size from that position ( if it was a min-raise instead of a 3x)

im very happy getting it in here

Shove, but not excited about it

shove and excited about it

Thanks for Your contribution!