hi guys i dont know a lot of things about villain..i have got only 22 hands with him..so PFR=24 PFR=19 3BET=0,00 i have a very strong hands bit it is a drawing hand...so what do you think its shove or not...?


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $2.28 Buy-in (15/30 blinds, 4 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37194509

MP1: 1,072 (35.7 bb)
MP2: 3,911 (130.4 bb)
MP3: 1,442 (48.1 bb)
CO: 1,472 (49.1 bb)
BTN: 1,455 (48.5 bb)
SB: 1,465 (48.8 bb)
Hero (BB): 1,485 (49.5 bb)
UTG+2: 1,198 (39.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K A
UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to 90, 5 folds, Hero raises to 240, MP1 raises to 1,068 and is all-in, HERO?

fold... there is a great possibility one of them has a pair and other some blocker for our hand ( i dont expect us to be in a headsup pot here EVER ) , so that screwes our equity up so much... get it in with QQ or even KK+ and dont worry whatever they turn... its high variance spot with AK

I think I'd call here. But yes, it is indeed a very high variance spot.

0% 3b? Yes, it is. Over 22 hands, assume static distro, Top 10 hands uhh.

He can't 3-bet when nobody raises ahead of him,

In the 22 hands he had maybe 11 chances to 3-bet and didn't take them.

Now he's taken his 12th chance so we have an observed 3-bet of 8.33%, that's what will show when it refreshes at the start of the next hand, however really we still don't have enough data to make any conclusions.

We are getting 1.64 to 1 on this call so we need 37.93% for chip EV.

Against a range of Top 10 hands (4.52% 99+, AJs+, AKo) we have 44.92%

Against a range of Top 6 hands (2.56%, TT+, AKs) we have 37.81% and have to fold.

We have no reason to think he's as tight as only playing top 6 so call.

im not sure what u think ppl are shoving here ? I mean, weakest A high hand he is its AK for sure... he can be also shoving some more pairs if he's crazy ass but AJs/AQ ? noooooooo

Yes, sorry, I forgot this was a 4 bet. Probably chip EV but a close fold due to the ready present weak effects of ICM.

it's cEV breakeven at best

What range does he think we 3-bet, what does he have and what does he expect us to call with?

Based on chipEV, if we 3-bet 5% but are expected to call QQ+, AKs (1.66% of all hands) then he has a profitable 4-bet bluff with anything he opened so that can't be right. If we are supposed to call JJ, well that performs worse than AKo against any villain range that is wider than QQ+, but narrower than 99+, AQ+

If we 3-bet 5.5% then there is some kind of balance where we he jams JJ+, AQs+, AKo, (3.32%) and we defend JJ+, AKs, AKo (3.02%). He can't profitably jam wider against that calling range and we can't improve by calling wider or tighter.

Are you crazy??? ppls what the hell it's going here??? 35 bb effective stack with yours 8 bb in the pot. Easiest call ever.

call

thank you guys merry christmas all of you

Snap and smile.

Do we know how he lost a ~third of his stack?

Generally not giving unknowns a ton of credit especially if they've been active. Absent any other info. I'm 3b/calling here (and like Puzo said, not necessarily displeased...)

I don't think I'd 3b pre without a plan, and if I'm not planning to get it in against MP1 then flatting initially seems best.