+1

Throwing less money away you mean, everyone's solid.

Obv? When OP doesn't give reads, we operate off defaults or what we expect a typical player in these games to do on average. There are far more players that will be folding enough hands to make this a snap shove than there are these bad regs that are calling greater than 30% that you're talking about, lol.

I agree that "play for first" is a silly argument, but that doesn't extend to maximising your equity in every single spot (although certainly most spots). Hands don't take place in a vacuum, we have to consider context, and ICM doesnt do that. There are going to be times when taking a -ev play is preferable, and even times when passing up on a +ev play is preferable .

agree

how do you know when to do that?

Are you sure?

100% sure

By considering what's happened up to this point, and more importantly, future hands. We might be able to give ourselves greater EV in the future by not thinking about a single hand in isolation.

A common example of when to take a -ev spot is to preserve FE. We might shove a slightly -ev hand when we have 4-8bb, because by doing so we can retain FE and give ourselves an opportunity at more future +ev spots.

An example of passing up a +ev spot might be when we're shorthanded on a FT with a huge stack, and we fold our BB to a 4bb shove to keep the shorty in. This way we keep the variable in play that allows us to abuse other players at the table in future hands.

can you explain me why?

In a vaccum, as they say this is a straightforward shove with Q9

But I like this and agree.

And i suspect that...sometimes there are going to be times when taking an incorrect ICM move is the right play and vice versa.

i agree with you, but how can you quantify how much $ev you can give up or how much of a -$ev you should take because of future hands?

because our bubble factor vs him is bigger than his bubble factor vs us

We can't quantify it, because we really can't predict the future. And that's why programs like SNGWIZ can only look at each spot in isolation. It's a qualitative assessment, and I know that's a weird and scary thing for a lot of math driven poker players.

In the vast majority of cases, taking the most +ev decision for the specific moment is going to be correct anyway... Just thought I'd point out some specific examples where it may not be optimal.

I dont really see how we can take in account future hands if we cant predict the future.
what do you mean by "qualitative assessment"?

If you want to see a nice discussion on this subject : http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/36...plays-1181385/

didnt read it yet but ty in advance

We can't predict the future, but we can certainly give our estimation of what will happen in the future (eg. what retaining FE does to our future EV, or how many steals we can execute as a bigstack when we keep a microstack in, etc).

It's not perfect, so we can't put numbers or values to it and we can't put it in an equation, like we can a single hand.

In the examples I give, I estimate that I will gain EV in future hands by making a sub-optimal play when looking at it in a vacuum. This estimation is based off various reads and incomplete information.

ok ok i understand what you are saying but im too scared to make speculations about future hands cause theres no method to check if my estimations about future are accurates or not. So i could think that i can fold a +ev spot cause of future hand while i shouldnt. you know what i mean?

Yeah sure. The more of these situations that you find yourself in, the better feel you'll have for when it might not be such a bad thing to take an isolated sub-optimal play. Obviously it's never going to be a huge mistake to just maximise EV at every decision.

What I mean is its so small we ignore it and this spot creates future spots that makes us do less worse icm pushes or loss fold equity, I did not say to shove wider vs regs... lol at this thread going to 70 posts

Its also important to note the better the player the wider we can shove here. Unlike aliquan I can predict the future im going to icm **** alot of regs and make alot more easy steals vs randoms with a 11bb stack here instead of an 8.