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 tough spot vs achen close to the bubble  tough spot vs achen close to the bubble

12-04-2011 , 09:47 PM
i don have the exact hand history
achen is a MTT sicko with a few live successes and a sunday million win.
22 players left. achen open shoves from btn for 8bbs. im in the BB with JQo with 12bbs, fold? i know im way ahead of his shoving range OTB. but is this a close fold close to the bubble?

Last edited by pkratitsbest; 12-04-2011 at 09:57 PM.
12-05-2011 , 12:23 AM
Just because he shoves with less doesn't mean you should call, I think calling isn't even +cEV.
12-05-2011 , 12:34 AM
its close

should not realy mention his name should just say "great reg" with great success

he would be shoving really wide here maybe 90%-ATC

i am not sure of the equity of JQo v ATC (am at work atm)

id say call and dont like it... although icm prob says fold
12-05-2011 , 12:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LoveThee
Just because he shoves with less doesn't mean you should call, I think calling isn't even +cEV.
no its +Cev for sure.

achen is shoving 50% of hands (probably 75% around) here at least. JQo is flipping against top 50% of hands.

but is it a +$EV call?
12-05-2011 , 12:46 AM
I don't like assuming he is shoving ATC as a reason to call.
I was wrong, JQ dominates some % of wide ranges but that is likely not enough to make it a call.
If your reason to call is that he is shoving ATC I don't like the call.
I don't think it is likely that he shoves ATC 100% of the times.
12-05-2011 , 05:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LoveThee
I don't like assuming he is shoving ATC as a reason to call.
I was wrong, JQ dominates some % of wide ranges but that is likely not enough to make it a call.
If your reason to call is that he is shoving ATC I don't like the call.
I don't think it is likely that he shoves ATC 100% of the times.
I think you make it too complicated. Its just a simple math problem. He shoves 8bbs. With Ante we need around 40% Equity. If he shoves we can call 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J6s+,T7s+,98s,A2o+,K2o+,Q6o+,J8 o+,T9o chipev wise.
Now we add an ICM Factor. At this stage its probably like 1.4 but i am not certain about that because we cant calculate it exactly. Then we need 48%.

Our Calling Range is then :33+,A2s+,K7s+,Q9s+,JTs,A2o+,K9o+,QTo+

If you want a little bit of Edge you should call a bit tighter but 50% shoving Range is already a very conservative assumption so this Calling Range should be good.

      
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