Do u even read what im writing? I need to correct this again.

60% toppair beats us? Where is that number from?

60% is the time an overcard flops to our JJ. Now the % that he holds that card exactly is not 60%. Sooo......

Who knows, maybe not... maybe the spazzes... maybe they dont. But at least give them a chance to make a mistake!

sigh... alot of toppairs? Are u aware of the percentage they flop toppair with Qx, Ax and Kx ???

And if yes, just do 0.6*^=X and u have u %.. I bet its under 10%

And oh, Well hell yes ill take that risk!

Il try and explain it again ffs. After this im done. When he calls our all in on the flop with top pair, 60% of the time it will be beating us, 40% of the time it wont, thats because there is a 60% chance that that top pair will be an overcard.

NOTE: Im saying WHEN he calls us with top pair, more often than not its not good news (60% of the time). Of course MOST of the time he is NOT calling us with top pair, I am simply talking about the occasions he does.

Bottom Line, with JJ if he only ever calls us on the flop with top pair, it is -EV for us as we are only ahead 40% of the time.

lololololololololololololol this is just so wrong, neverthefknless, GL!

The problem is... it isn't. When a player stacks off with top pair, if you rule out the J, then 60% of the time it will be a Q, K, A, whilst 40% of the time it will be a T or lower. NOTE: He HAS to have top pair for this to be valid, we are not talking about any other possible hand OTHER than top pair here. Thus 60% of the time WHEN HE CALLS WITH TOP PAIR he will be ahead. 40% of the time WHEN HE CALLS WITH TOP PAIR we will be ahead.

The exact odds are 55.3% and 44.7% not 60:40

Its just simple mathematical fact, but as said, neverthefknless, gl!

?

Meh changed my mind If you cant figure out the maths yourself refer here:

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...umber=10141192

Shown workings of odds of a flop with a Q, K, or A on it, which proves my point. I thank you v.much. As said again as I dont think you understand this, this is ONLY referring to when Villain stacks off with Top pair and Top pair only. 55% of the time we are behind. Fact.

This doesnt really need to continue, only you will respond with some comment trying to disprove the above without providing any proof as there isnt any, followed up by me responding stating you are wrong again. Thats why this conversation should be done as facts have been shown and it is now pointless. tyvm

lol, Im glad u found out basic stuff. But thats certainly not what we are discussing. At least im not lol, so I give up explaining to u. GL to u tho.

If BB is calling 25% (which u fear since u posted some stuff with him flatting Q2 lol, that good for us btw). Then for the fans this is his range:

AA-22,AKo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo-J9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s

now lets just for the fans say flop comes Ks8s3d right..... omg, he can have toppair with Kx within his range..... but how often does that occur..... woooooooooooooow a hole

top pair: 17.2%

which then means u lose the hand 10% of times... last 90% u win more...

also this is probably lower since he ships AQ+ pre probably... but whatever.

Calm down lads it's only 10c!

I'm still in the min raise camp

The maths in here is absolutely correct. However it is pointless given there are so many other factors to consider. There are so many more scenarios where we will stack villain (and vice versa, but not so many). 60% of the time, an overcard will flop, but villain will have to pair that very card, not just simply have A,K,Q X. We are unlucky if Q5 gets it in on a Q86r flop against us - I'm certainly not saying there are some outcomes we won't regret. But looking at the bigger picture, by NOT ending the hand here, we allow ourselves to utilise our edge over the field EVEN MORE, which can't be bad.

In answer to your question, yeah, there's definitely some merit into simplifying situations by jamming. The hand ends there, you don't have to worry about it, and you can focus on other tables. Some people would says this means you're playing too many tables... but of course I don't know what your volume / stake / # tables situation is.

I think there's just been a huge misunderstanding in this thread. What mckrogh is saying is correct. The chances of villain having QX AND a Q high flop + KX AND a K high flop + AX AND an A high flop is rather low. This is the reason why our JJ still plays so strong. Remember TT+, AQ+ most likely 3bet pre, so villain will be likely to have just one overcard to our JJ.

Still.... at least noone's trying to reason a -EV play here....