Is it a correct call based on the odds and my stack size?

If there are no ICM considerations, it's an easy call.
It's b/e vs 3.5%{TT+/AK}, ofc he'll be wider than that, but that just puts it in perspective.
Really easy to work this out yourself
The pot will be 7,060 if you call so...
• 100/(7060/1730) = 24.5% so we have to win ~¼ times to b/e
• pokerstove.com

You are getting 3.1-1 and you are 1.9-1 against a top 40% hand and it's not like you are losing FE or anything if you lose.

I forgot to say, this is from a 45 man sng so we were on the bubble here

that changes it a tiny bit. I prob let it go, i dont think CO is gonna be that wide on the bubble with other shorties about to get hit by the blinds. Call maybe 25-30%, id need to take a look at the payouts as im not that familiar w 45mans.

Yyyyeeeeaaaahhh this is kind of important.

wicked spot to be in, might still fold with the MP1 being low

If you fold, you probably have to call a shove the next hand in the SB. You could make it to the next blinds without being anteed out, but it isn't certain anyone busts by then. If you win the hand, you have a close to average stack, but it is about 2-1 you bust. You need for the expected payout if you win the hand to be 3x the expected payout if you fold for calling to be correct. I think it is close.

yeah i'm drunk and posting betgo so take no notice of me ssdjnkjdcnndcndsancndcndncdnclsdncknddc

40% of your stack is in the pot, I don't think you can fold here even if it is the bubble. If you fold everyone's going to tighten up and wait for you to bust. If you win you're almost guaranteed to mincash with all the shorties. Also it gives you a chance to come back and win a lot more.

If you win, your expectation is like 6 buyins. However, you only get that 1/3 of the time, so all you need is 2 buyins by folding, which is a mincash. If you fold, you may be able to make a pot odds call in the SB. Also, you won't get anteed out till the next BB. You can hope someone busts first or you survive the next BB. Plus occasionally you get a good opportunity to call a raise with pot odds with your microstack hoping to get HU or you pick up a big hand. So I lean toward thinking folding is better.

While it could be a marginal ICM fold/call, I think we should be a bit more willing to get it in here than ICM suggests because when we double up here we gain a significant amount of fold equity, something ICM doesn't account for. If we fold and plan to get it in in the SB and then double up there we won't gain anywhere near as much fold equity. This is the pot odds call we should be taking in my opinion.

sick spot, close either way I guess. I tend to never fold this, but then again thats probably why my graph is jagged as all hell.

54o is not that bad. It is a call.
It is better than calling with K4o.

If the villain is tight though this may become marginal 50/50 in our head (fold/call) theoretically and according to wiz, if we have no more information to decide on.
And then, actually 50/50 would mean that we should play if we are better than the rest of the field.
It is because we could use our skill to do better and get a better place and would waste our skill if we're folding. That is why we bought in to SnG in the first place if we wanted to make a profit - we assumed that we are better than the rest. So we should act aggressively if there is a 50/50 situation in our head to be able to use our bigger stack skillfully later if we did hit.
If we knew or acknowledge to ourselves that we are worse than the rest of the field at the table, a losing player in FT fights, we can fold and lose less that way, maybe hitting ITM this time...

K4o is way better than 54o. Try it in Pokerstove. Villain has a wide range and the K plays.

Villain can't be wide because BB would call him practically 100%. There is no way villain should risk bubbling with bad cards. He can wait and there is another short stack, even shorter.
In villains shoes I'd push top 10% or so only.
He'd wait for BB and the other shorty to bust.

Usually the villain would push 25-30% though, many of those containing K. No? (Not sure what they would push in $1.5 )
Something like 22+, A2s+, K6s+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, K9o+.

K4o and 54o are pretty equal but 54o slightly ahead still.
Not much though, indeed. Maybe equal with K6o against this range.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.134% 65.67% 00.47% 4641643188 32943930.00 { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, K9o+ }
Hand 1: 33.866% 33.40% 00.47% 2360859864 32943930.00 { 54o }



equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.203% 65.83% 01.38% 4395812820 91989510.00 { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, K9o+ }
Hand 1: 32.797% 31.42% 01.38% 2098193760 91989510.00 { K4o }

Using Stove's default 25% range, I get K4o is 3 % better. I am not sure how you came up with a range where K4o is worse.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,702,542 games 2.983 secs 1,576,447 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.665% 66.79% 00.39% 3140785 18515.00 { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 33.335% 33.20% 00.39% 1561356 18516.50 { 54o }


---

7,504,834 games 3.448 secs 2,176,575 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.844% 64.43% 01.46% 4835087 109488.00 { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 36.156% 35.85% 01.46% 2690681 109488.50 { K4o }


---

not taking either side about 54/k4 but using pokerstoves defaults is usually not good because for e.g. 99% of randoms are pushing a6o before Q8s (the former not included, latter included in the defaults above)
also you musaire you can't just assume all players are competent and/or playing tight. its a $1 sng, the average player in that spot is gonna shove way wider than he "should" be

so edit: i will take sides k4 is easily better than 54 since villains range will be on average wide.. vs a nitty range yes 54 is better

+1 call, pot odds etc and future considerations of fold equity and so on. saying there is no icm is wrong (but its considerations are minimal compared to the other issues; uber short stack size etc)

There is a big ICM factor. Your expectation if you win is about 6 buyins, which sounds good. However, you only need 2 buyins by folding to get the same expected win rate, since you are about a 2-1 dog. 2 buyins is 7th place. If you have a decent chance 1 or 2 players will bust before the next blinds, plus sometimes you survive the next blinds or pick up a big pair or something. I am afraid players at this stakes may paly incorrectly tight waiting for you to bust and it will still be the bubble by the next blinds. However, there are reasons for continuing with a microstack.

The difference in values between 54o and K4o is not that big. Usually we'd call both anyway.
Just wanted to say it is just slightly better to call with 54o if the villain pushes less than 28%, as an example.
Checked it out with SitNGo Wizard too:
It is that using wiz ranges. I think that Pokerstove's ranges aren't that optimal for specific situations.

According to wiz, 54o and the rest of our 65%+ range becomes a call if the villain pushes 24% or more.
So we may fold if we think that the guy is a super tight. I'd push 10-20% (depending) from CO there, so it would be fold against me if you knew me. If you want.
Against a random and every non-ICM-nit I would call because I wouldn't believe CO would fold hands like K7o, K8o and K9o (in 30% range) there.

There is a big ICM factor, yes.
Comparing it to the 180-mans; we would have to call with 100% of our hands even if we knew the CO would push KK+, AKs only, considering the same stack sizes/blinds relationships at the 180-man table and 8 players left.
We couldn't call 100% vs. KK+,AKs here. But our stack is so small and 7th place in 45-man at PS is actually worth 1.43 buy-ins only , not 2.
So it can easily become a call with 54o. Almost every time, depending our style and how we'd manage the late game play.

(And OMGClayDoll, yes, me too, I never thought CO would be tight. It was an answer to betgo's argument that villain has a wide range which he just shouldn't have. Was talking about tightness to compare 54 and K4 only if CO was tight.)

just remember
with 3BBs at BB call atc
with 4BBs at BB call 70%
with 5BBs at BB call 35%

and you will never make a big mistake