Hi,
V is 31/27 @ 26 hands (let's asume 10x bigger sample size for the sake of analysis since for me it's kind of nice spot to learn 'proper' postflop analysis).
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.91 Buy-in (15/30 blinds, 4 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
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#37429126
SB: 2,022 (67.4 bb)
BB: 1,512 (50.4 bb)
UTG+2: 1,485 (49.5 bb)
MP1: 1,068 (35.6 bb)
Hero (MP2): 1,659 (55.3 bb)
MP3: 1,373 (45.8 bb)
CO: 1,521 (50.7 bb)
BTN: 1,440 (48 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A
A
UTG+2 calls 30,
MP1 folds,
Hero raises to 120,
MP3 folds, CO calls 120, 3 folds, UTG+2 calls 90
Flop: (437) 3
Q
5
(3 players)
UTG+2 checks,
Hero bets 327, CO calls 327,
UTG+2 folds
Turn: (1,091) J
(2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks
River: (1,091) 3
(2 players)
Hero bets 327,
CO folds
Flop
Of course I was a bit scary he might have already a flush here, but I felt like I have to cbet since I still have a draw to nut flash which I will hit roughly 36% of the time. If I bet 75% flush calls anyway and I can make him fold sth like top pair I want him to stick around with, so I should decide to go with smallish bet to charge those kind of hands. Now, after giving him 27% without top 3.2% which I think he will surely 3bet pre with, he has made flush just 4% of the time so I think It would be ok to charge any pairs etc. (~30%)? Shall bet smaller.
Turn
I guess I should bet here ~50% of the pot here. The question is - shouldn't he expect that from made flushes? Maybe if I just check here he will put me on flush draw with something like AQ / AK and continue with any pairs?
River
Well, it's last chance to get any value so I decide to bet 30% pot with overpair. Now that I think of it maybe I should shove? If he has flush only 4% of the time he can read that as a bluff?
The longer I think about the hand the more confused I am. Any constructive criticism is highly appreciated. #RoastMe ;-)