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History Discussion of History up to Circa 1990

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Old 01-26-2016, 04:10 PM   #201
jalfrezi
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Re: The Second World War

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Originally Posted by meanboyfriend View Post
Then after the war ended, they didn't utter a peep to Russia AGAIN about letting Poland be free.
You cannot understand this if you happen to believe that the war was lost until America entered it.
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Old 04-05-2016, 08:50 AM   #202
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Re: The Second World War

The abandonment of Eastern Europe was even worse considering they actively deported the Allied soldiers from that region back over to the Soviets after 1944
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Old 04-07-2016, 02:05 AM   #203
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Re: The Second World War

well thanks for the information in this thread history is fascinating to read about but i'm more concerned about the future; is there a place for futurism in the history forum? silly question, of course not, that belongs in SMP. The biggest question I ask myself is will we wipe ourselves out or will there be people talking about the propaganda wars going on with donald trump and hilary clinton in the future?

does present day history deserve a place in these forums? again, silly question, politics is the place for that
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Old 06-11-2016, 11:18 PM   #204
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Re: The Second World War

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Originally Posted by Olangotang View Post
The biggest question I ask myself is will we wipe ourselves out
Probably.

Assume that we wipe ourselves out (by nuclear means or otherwise) in any given year with probability 1 in 1,000,000- a grossly optimistic estimate no doubt. Then, the probability of wiping ourselves out in the next 1,000,000 years is roughly (1- 0.999999^1,000,000=) 63%*. And I assume we don't wipe ourselves out inadvertently through raping the planet.

We've existed for about 2.5 million years as hom0-"various" but it's sadly probable that we won't reach 3.5 million years.



So I'm about a third of the way through William Shirer's "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich". I'm enjoying it despite the author's shamelessly homophobic remarks. Just one question:

After the night of the long knives, Hitler announced publicly, on July 13 1934, that he was responsible for organizing the deaths of over 100 people.
His reasons for doing so were (paraphrased): "argo fargo...these people were a blight on Germany and I take the law into my own hands."

Remarkably, Hindenburg commended him for it (page 225). What the hell?

Why wasn't he arrested on the spot? If, say, John Key or Justin Trudeau killed 100 people and then issued a public confession by television or radio announcement, there would be complete outrage. And they'd be arrested immediately.

I wasn't taught history at school so i'm probably naive but it's inconceivable to me that a politician, or anyone for that matter, could get away with that.
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Old 06-12-2016, 12:51 AM   #205
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Re: The Second World War

If a nuclear war went off now there would be many human survivors, so I don't agree with your one in a million estimate.

Also, if you changed it to one in a billion the end probability drops to less than 10%; and this all assumes that humans stay as we are and don't ever take the opportunity to genetically modify some of our inherited behaviours that run against our best interests in surviving as a species in the modern and future world where ICBMs exist.

Last edited by jalfrezi; 06-12-2016 at 12:57 AM.
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Old 06-12-2016, 12:58 AM   #206
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Re: The Second World War

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Originally Posted by Inzaghi View Post
Probably.

Assume that we wipe ourselves out (by nuclear means or otherwise) in any given year with probability 1 in 1,000,000-
So you're telling me there's a chance?
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Old 06-12-2016, 08:00 PM   #207
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Re: The Second World War

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Originally Posted by jalfrezi View Post
If a nuclear war went off now there would be many human survivors, so I don't agree with your one in a million estimate.

Also, if you changed it to one in a billion the end probability drops to less than 10%; and this all assumes that humans stay as we are and don't ever take the opportunity to genetically modify some of our inherited behaviours that run against our best interests in surviving as a species in the modern and future world where ICBMs exist.
I'd agree it's unlikely we'd wipe ourselves out completely. The people of North Sentinel Island for instance probably won't be drawn into a nuclear battle and would remain unaffected by power struggles.

But to estimate the likelihood of a nuclear wipe out (in a given year) at one in a billion is grossly optimistic. You do realize how large a billion is right?
The current environment poses a number of struggles that could lead to a nuclear fest:
-unresolved conflict in the middle east
-Putin's game of chess (at least that's how the west see it)
-racial hatred among hom0-sapiens in Europe
-subtle power interests in the pacific

Personally, i think you'd be optimistic at estimating the likelihood at anything under 1 in 100,000 in the current year. Which i admit is small but over millions of years its a sure thing.

You make a great point about modifying ourselves and that would be one of our escape cards aside from the classic "migration to another planet."
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Old 11-08-2016, 02:23 AM   #208
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Re: The Second World War

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Since Britain and France went to war with Germany to defend Poland why did they not go to war with the Soviets also? They invaded Poland as well.
Because they aren't stupid.

They would have got destroyed by Germany and the Soviets..

Though it fun to think about the changes that would happen
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Old 11-11-2016, 12:42 PM   #209
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Re: The Second World War

The Nazi-Soviet Pact (at least the part where they agreed to divide Poland) was secret. The Soviets went into Poland under the public pretense of securing their own border against the German advance.
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Old 11-29-2016, 08:27 PM   #210
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Re: The Second World War

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The Nazi-Soviet Pact (at least the part where they agreed to divide Poland) was secret. The Soviets went into Poland under the public pretense of securing their own border against the German advance.
Why would you call that "pretext"? The Soviets knew the Germans had been rearming - the Soviets had helped them do it. The Soviets knew that Germany would invade Poland - hence the pact. The Soviets never presumed rhey would be at peace with Nazi Germany for decades. They knew a war was inevitable. They had a very real reason to want to secure their borders with a buffer area. That may not have been their only reason for grabbing the eastern part of Poland, but it was a genuine part of their reasons for doing so.
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