Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth
5. And at the very least prolonging the war in such a negative way for the North that Lincoln is defeated in the 1864 election.
I think this is the most important part of the post, as political developments were as or important than the course of battles.
I think Lincoln's support was more fragile than retrospect suggests and one battle or another going a different way might have sunk Lincoln's reelection. Democrats were playing on opposition to the war to get votes, but they would not necessarily capitulate to the CSA once in the presidency. A Democratic executive would have to accept blame for losing the war and wasting all that sacrifice.
So all sorts of scenarios are plausible, and maybe if the war got replayed ten times, succession might succeed three times.