Two interesting hands played at the WSOP cash games - Page 3 - High Stakes Poker Pot Limit and No Limit

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Two interesting hands played at the WSOP cash games

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07-06-2008 , 10:25 PM

#51

amulet

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 2,874

Quote:

Based upon your numbers, your turn shove has EV = +$1,100:

Call with Bottom Set: 10% * 40% = 4%
Middle Set: 9% * 10% = 0.9% (round to 1%)
Top Set: 5%
Straight: 15%

So, all total, that's a 25% chance that he'll call. You have 25% equity when he has a set and he calls. You have 22.7% equity when he has a straight. Based upon your numbers, if he calls, he will have a straight 60% of the time. So, weighting the straights at 60%, you have 23.62% equity when he calls. Your overall EV when he calls will be -$3,102.70 (.2362 * $16,500 - $7,000). I'll round to -$3,100 for simplicity.

.75 * $2500 + [(.25) * -$3,100] = EV
$1,875 - $775 = EV
+$1,100 = EV

The question remains as to whether you have higher EV by checking the turn behind. I previously estimated your equity in checking behind somewhere between $1,350 and $1,800. So, if you go with your numbers, you are winning $250 to $700 less by shoving than checking the turn behind.

Also, after re-reading your OP, is the UTG player you are up against the straddle? If so, then it is a lot less likely he has JJ+ type hands (since he'd usually raise the straddle preflop), and more likely to have sets and straight hands like J9o or even 96o (which he'd check behind on the straddle). Even if he is the guy after the straddle, I still think I gave him too much credit for JJ+ type hands. So, I'm now starting to think the turn shove is not better than a check (I guess I'm flip-flopping).

Anyhow, if your numbers are correct, then checking the turn behind is clearly better than shoving.

***EDIT: I accidentally left off your 95% folding equity with all other non-set, non-straight hands, but the results shouldn't be enough to swing the conclusion.

His numbers can not be right based on the way the hand was played. This is getting somewhat absurd. You have many very experienced high stakes winning players who have provided their expertise, and it seems that their knowledgeable insights are being ignored.

As I posted above:

"This is way to wide. And live I strongly disagree. In fact High Stakes online i disagree.

The way the hand when down, when the opponent called out of position vs 2 players (one still to act), the strong likelihood was that op was in a lot of trouble. On this flop the likelihood of it hitting someone hard is possible. The call makes it extremely probable. And without the nuts in a mutiway pot on this type of board, a good player will often just call and be cautious - with exactly the type of hand he has. The odds on the turn push of the opponent calling are significantly higher then your estimating."

Last edited by ike; 11-25-2009 at 04:15 PM.

07-08-2008 , 02:01 AM

#52

BoyChick

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 332

Ban for masquerading your bad beat stories as 'interesting hands'. Esp the first one, which was very clear cut and not interesting at all.

07-08-2008 , 02:15 AM

#53

r3vbr

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 1,984

Quote:

Originally Posted by BoyChick

Ban for masquerading your bad beat stories as 'interesting hands'. Esp the first one, which was very clear cut and not interesting at all.

Ban for making stupid comments that ammount to nothing.
What have you contributed to this forum up until now mr.arrogant?

07-08-2008 , 02:25 AM

#54

winningfish

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 676

zzzzzz

07-13-2008 , 04:10 PM

#55

gguzman23

adept

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 726

Was the flashy guy the only donk on that table? The rest proz?

07-14-2008 , 12:27 AM

#56

dtan05

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 5,144

jesus that turn shove is horrendous. I really like a turn check bhd b/c the flashy guy doesnt know your image. flop raise isn't TOO bad.

07-16-2008 , 12:27 PM

#57

Neuman101

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 295

[QUOTE=r3vbr;4965522]Board was NOT paired

I thought with my history at the table it was a credible bet to make and represent the nuts or semi nuts...

QUOTE]

Why would u want to represent the nuts, when u have a top pair plus big drawing hand? It sounds like u are trying to force him to make some kind of big laydown...do u see an opponent who everyone bought in to cover ever laying either straight, any set, any two pair? IF your prepared to semi bluff now, surely u can semi bluff 2k, then value bet or bluff 5k on river...which in my opinion looks stronger than a 7k bet on turn...something just looks wrong about that overbet, if u had j9, would u really bet 7k?

07-16-2008 , 03:22 PM

#58

klamz

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 86

Quote:

Originally Posted by r3vbr

Background:

turn is 5h and guy checks to me.

Total pot is now about 2.5k. I think for about 1 min, very nervously (not fake nervous but truly nervous about what to do) Also I am a bit of a tell bag and have no experience playing live.

I Shove allin for 7k into the pot and he goes into the tank.
After about 2 minutes of thought he calls with 88 and I lose the 17K pot unimproved.

Are you nuts? Check and take the free card!!!!!! This guy seems like a rich gambler type from his bling bling. He also just sat down with 60K. I doubt he is folding anything better then top pair so you have no fold equity on the push. I dub him a"loose gambling calling station" until proven otherwise. You should always play straight forward with the new guys until you figure them out. You just got unlucky there when he showed 888 and when you didnt improve on the river.

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