+1

Now that we're not folding, what do you advocate?

I think that people are looking at this in a too simplistic way and krantz recognizes that OP is going to view it this way.

why not raise the flop?

if you get heat after that you can be certain of a fold, if you only get called by jc, you'll most likely be able to check behind on the turn if you're still scared.

looks to me like jc had some medium hand and was looking to find out where he was. krantz could have god knows what but you could easily narrow that range down if he's looking at a bet and rr and stays in the hand.

38,

What is a medium hand?

At starbucks, its a grande hand.

here, a pair of queens

Well, it's certainly not the case if you want to be folding a lot of turns, which makes the flop call generally terrible and very -EV.

Without any information about his turn/river bluffing frequencies or the bluff portion of his checkraise range, even if we have enough equity to call his flop C/R it's impossible to realize that equity. I think that Krantz is going to realize the dynamic going on here where his range is much stronger than yours, so he's going to be bluffing the turn quite a lot.

the question really comes down to how do you quantify "a lot". 22, 55 and QQ is 9 hand combinations all together. there are a few combinations of some power draws as well, some just non gutshot/gutshot + over. it's not hard to get it to where he's bluffing well over 50% of the time. so the point is, if he bluffs the turn "a lot" you can make +EV calls with this hand on good turns (anything between a 7 and A or a non board pairing of any sort).

so while it's true that krantz can be bluffing here more than normal, if you think he is going to try to take advantage of this and exploit you, the optimal play would be to try to get it in with good equity against his semibluff range (if it exists) and win the pot from his pure air/weak draw range (if it exists).

so, i know nothing of what anyone's range actually is in this spot. maybe AQ is the top of yours, maybe you have hands like A3, maybe you have sets. maybe jc always has QJ+ here and never air. the person in the best position to make that judgement is the person playing the hand - only they are at the table and know what the dynamic is at that point. but if krantz can be bluffing here, folding in this big a pot on this board with this hand is just too easily exploitable.

xorbie- what about preflop???

i don't understand... what about it.

jc and krantz are supposed to be good right?? But when jc leads out, he can only have a set or I guess monster draw? Ok... well, if that's true, then krantz can only be c/ring monsters, so fold. If jc isn't only leading monster hands, which I don't see how he could be if he's any good, then krantz should be c/ring more than 22/55 with a discounted QQ.

Basically, if either of them are "good" and semibluff or mix up their play in the slightest, I don't see how you can put them on monsters or fold. I would call and on the turn:
fold if he bets, bet if he checks.
shove if he bets, check if he checks.
Anything else is probably a fold, if he bets. I'd probably check everything else.

he flatted a tight/solid player's open from the SB with a moderately aggro 3bettor behind him........

guys, what do you think about turning our hand into a bluff on the flop(or waiting and doing it on the turn)? We are deep - this could really work.

James

so this means he has... two cards?

no, this could not work. are you thinking 22 folds here? i dont think he has KK/AA here ever so thats basically what you are targetting. on a board that has draws, only 200bb deep, already a big pot, your hand does not look like a set too often.... no i dont think this would work.

Here is my thinking, we have one of the queens, making QQ very unlikely. He knows we know jc is tight and usually has 22, so he usually has 55. I would be surprised to see him risk his stack in this spot given all of this information.

James

no one, including myself, would ever lay down a set vs the pfr in 2008 no matter what comes on the turn. you'd have to be closer to 300bb and i still don't think enough players would fold to make it +EV. games are too juiced.

"Any player who can't fold the 2nd nuts is a rank sucker and my sister would be a huge favorite to bust him."

David Sklansky

rank sucker sounds kinda dirty

I should also say, we have backdoor outs against a set if Krantz did indeed make the dubious all in call.

James

congrats james i literally lol'd after each of your last four posts

exactly why david, and his sister have been crushing the ftp deep games.......

guys i just got some sick new 500 dollar noise cancelling headphones and i was utilizing them while i read the last dozen posts in this thread but i'm pretty sure that everyone within a city block (except me) heard my burst in laughter after reading some of these posts

lmao

last time i checked people dont balance their ranges in every possible spot, especially when up against tight players who are supposed to have huge hands

last time i checked people dont balance their ranges in every possible spot, especially when up against tight players who are supposed to have huge hands


people SHOULDNT balance their ranges in that spot, but exploit the guy's tightness