Quote:
Originally Posted by samothraki
cause i can get value from a lot of hands
I find it weird that you say "a lot of hand" cause I can hardly think of any.
Hands that beat you that may take this line (ck turn and jamming river):
JT(1),TT(3),KJ(3),99(6),J9(1) - 14
Somewhat less likely - flushes and AQ (total combos 2)
Total combos that beat you - 16
Hands that you beat that may take this line and CALL river:
KTs(3), AJ(4) - 7
Hands that you chop that may take this line and CALL river:
KQ(6-chop), QTs(2) - 8
Hands that may take this line and feel compelled to bluff river:
89(3),9T(2) - 5
Given the above, even if we discount the 16 combos that may play like this by 50% (due to the turn check), we still don't have a profitable river bet (8 value jamming, 7 potentially calling).
If we discount his value jamming range to 8 then we need 4 bluffs in his range to bet/call river. So he would need to turn most of his 89/9T into bluffs, or also turn hands like KT into bluffs.