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Old 03-27-2010, 10:34 AM   #1
Daniel Negreanu
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Could I have won more?

Could I have won more? I put RunThisTable on a flush when he over called the turn, but I was afraid he wouldn't bet. Maybe a really silly obvious hand so apologies in advance. Just curious if something thinks I could have done more with the hand.


Poker Stars $100/$200 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

RunThisTable (CO): $47520.00
theASHMAN103 (BTN): $31635.00
Hero (SB): $38320.00
AlGohr (BB): $35890.00
NegroVente1 (UTG): $81441.00

Pre Flop: ($300.00) Hero is SB with A 8
1 fold, RunThisTable raises to $600, theASHMAN103 calls $600, Hero calls $500, 1 fold

Flop: ($2000.00) T 7 2 (3 players)
Hero checks, RunThisTable checks, theASHMAN103 bets $1600, Hero calls $1600, RunThisTable calls $1600

Turn: ($6800.00) 4 (3 players)
Hero checks, RunThisTable checks, theASHMAN103 bets $4600, Hero calls $4600, RunThisTable calls $4600

River: ($20600.00) A (3 players)
Hero bets $12000, RunThisTable calls $12000, theASHMAN103 folds

Final Pot: $44600.00
RunThisTable mucks 9 T
Hero shows A 8 (a flush, Ace high)
Hero wins $44595.00
(Rake: $5.00)


Poker Stars $100/$200 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

RunThisTable (CO): $47520.00
theASHMAN103 (BTN): $31635.00
Hero (SB): $38320.00
AlGohr (BB): $35890.00
NegroVente1 (UTG): $81441.00

Pre Flop: ($300.00) Hero is SB with A 8
1 fold, RunThisTable raises to $600, theASHMAN103 calls $600, Hero calls $500, 1 fold

Flop: ($2000.00) T 7 2 (3 players)
Hero checks, RunThisTable checks, theASHMAN103 bets $1600, Hero calls $1600, RunThisTable calls $1600

Turn: ($6800.00) 4 (3 players)
Hero checks, RunThisTable checks, theASHMAN103 bets $4600, Hero calls $4600, RunThisTable calls $4600

River: ($20600.00) A (3 players)
Hero bets $12000, RunThisTable calls $12000, theASHMAN103 folds

Final Pot: $44600.00
RunThisTable mucks 9 T
Hero shows A 8 (a flush, Ace high)
Hero wins $44595.00
(Rake: $5.00)
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Old 03-27-2010, 10:58 AM   #2
sjp507
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Re: Could I have won more?

usually removing the results and only posting the hand once will get the best results daniel :P
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Old 03-27-2010, 11:08 AM   #3
MATT111
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Re: Could I have won more?

I think this really depends on how they view you. I feel like if you want to donk the river it`s better to make it smaller or bigger.
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Old 03-27-2010, 11:47 AM   #4
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Re: Could I have won more?

I think you played it fine, DN.
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Old 03-27-2010, 12:17 PM   #5
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Re: Could I have won more?

I think a C/Shove is the best for sure, I mean his range has plenty of FD's in it and a lead just looks super strong here, especially with ashman still to act after he has been betting into 2 people.
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Old 03-27-2010, 12:30 PM   #6
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Re: Could I have won more?

If you put him on a flush, why not check raise him all in? If you were afraid he wouldn't bet a flush, he must be really weak -- wouldn't just about everybody bet a flush here when checked to?
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Old 03-27-2010, 12:31 PM   #7
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Re: Could I have won more?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT111 View Post
I think this really depends on how they view you. I feel like if you want to donk the river it`s better to make it smaller or bigger.
yea this.

given you like to make blocking bets based on ur other hands posted, id make it rly small and RunThisTable woulda prob raised you.
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Old 03-27-2010, 12:34 PM   #8
Apathy
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Re: Could I have won more?

I think checking the river would be a big mistake I'd be very worried about RTT checking and Ashman isn't too likely to try and bluff here, it's also unlikely we get a check raise in and get it called even if RTT bets so in that case we make about the same. You could bet river bigger if you are very confident in your read but there are meta considerations to think about there so you need to be careful with that.

Last edited by Apathy; 03-27-2010 at 12:39 PM. Reason: other streets seem good to me
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Old 03-27-2010, 12:42 PM   #9
Daniel Negreanu
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Re: Could I have won more?

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Originally Posted by Apathy View Post
I think checking the river would be a big mistake I'd be very worried about RTT checking and Ashman isn't too likely to try and bluff here, it's also unlikely we get a check raise in and get it called even if RTT bets so in that case we make about the same. You could bet river bigger if you are very confident in your read but there are meta considerations to think about there so you need to be careful with that.
Everyone has all seen me make stupid bets before so with my river bet sizing I was trying to rep like Ac 10 or something along those lines. I was worried there that a big bet would scream of the nuts.

When RunThisTable called the turn I put him on exactly a flush, however, if he doesn't check raise the turn I don't feel like he'd ever just lead the river when I checked. Felt like I had to bet it or it was going to get checked around.
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Old 03-27-2010, 12:47 PM   #10
Jason Strasser (strassa2)
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Re: Could I have won more?

I think its a meh time to try to check. How does he not value bet a flush here, especially vs a guy with your reputation to call a lot? Thats not the issue for me... Ace is a decent card to go for a check because guy who overcalled the turn figures a) its a decent bluff-looking card and you might call light, 2) there are some hands that you could have that pick up some showdown value with that river (two pairs, some hand with the naked Ac?).... although there arent a ton of hands that make sense... The real concern is that you prolly dont CR bluff the river much so it might not be worth it to try.... You need him to be a hero one out of four or five times I'd estimate to make this better than value betting. you are probably better off playing it the way you did, especially because there is very little chance you have any bluff equity here (hard to find a hand he overcalls the turn with that will go ahead and bluff the river, especially because he doesnt have the Ac) + i bet he doesnt pay you off enough.

The way its played i agree it looked like a flush all the way from the button... why not bet more on the river? people get too caught up in being consistent with value bet sizes instead of just realizing that in this particular spot the guy probably has a flush and is probably not folding for a near pot sized bet, regardless of what you've done in all your past hands. Shania is overrated, welcome to 2010.. seems like most of the top players these days are the ones who abandon their theoretical urges to play balanced poker and think about dynamics within the hand as a priority over overall balanced poker. Certainly for me that is something i am constantly fighting.
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Old 03-27-2010, 12:54 PM   #11
Jason Strasser (strassa2)
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Re: Could I have won more?

id also think that given the action, its rare the ashman does anything but check behind or fold to a bet from anyone.
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Old 03-27-2010, 01:26 PM   #12
autotune
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Re: Could I have won more?

I think you probably played it optimally--Ashman will seldom fire a 3rd barrel into two people in that spot and a check-raise from you would look very strong to runthistable on the river. That said, I certainly would have bet a bit more on the river.

I think you would rep Ac10x better with a weird raise on the turn than a weakish lead on the river btw.
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Old 03-27-2010, 02:04 PM   #13
sauce123
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Re: Could I have won more?

pretty cool hand DN

1. sucks to be oop huh ? your best flop play is going to be lead 150bb eff 3way here against a hijack open and co flat range. check is for sure fine too.

2. gotta c/c turn always

3. on river u need to bet smaller or larger, you would bet larger to get paid off from a smaller flush like everyone in this thread has been saying. betting 6800 is pretty cool as well because you are going to get call + overcall slightly more often, you are going to get paid off by a hand as weak as a set sometimes if runthistable folds by ashman. the biggest reason though maybe is that if runthistable flats, and you have a history of making blocking bets on the end with weak + medium showdown hands (for example the K9 fiasco you posted) it is going to be more likely theashman thinks runthistable would just go ahead and raise you if he had the nuts or 2nd nuts and ashman will also think it is less likely you hold the nuts (he would be right too, given that in the moment you bombed out 12k w/the nuts). And then you leave ashman perfect stacksizes to make a cheap/believable river shove which reps exactly the nuts on every street in a spot where you + runthistable cant have the nuts very often. this probably only happens like 5% of the time though, cause you have to trick the **** out of him, but its sure nice when it does.
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Old 03-27-2010, 02:32 PM   #14
SoLost
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Re: Could I have won more?

really like strasser and sauce's posts
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Old 03-27-2010, 02:34 PM   #15
ILikeTrees
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Re: Could I have won more?

interesting. I think your donk is very intuitive in that its obvious that ashman is not firing 3 here. also, it seems unlikely that RunThisTable will lead into him. So in that sense i think the donk is great-- im just curious about betsizing.

i've been trying to think of a way that making an overbet will let you get paid and i just dont see it. its too strong of a line, and i could see RunthisTable folding with Ashman behind. unless its like an overbet-ship to rep the bare Ac, but to me that doesn't fit with your table image (at least as far as i know).

So i guess im with the camp that would just bet bigger, like 18500 or w/e. i dont think you see enough spazzes from a smaller bet to induce. but i could see the value in that too
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Old 03-27-2010, 02:59 PM   #16
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Re: Could I have won more?

clearly check river imo, how could leading be better?

Last edited by jungleman; 03-27-2010 at 03:05 PM.
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Old 03-27-2010, 03:11 PM   #17
MATT111
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Re: Could I have won more?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jungleman View Post
clearly check river imo, how could leading be better?
Well, Ashman needs sth really strong to bet fv here given the action, no?
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Old 03-27-2010, 03:11 PM   #18
Vinh Diesel
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Re: Could I have won more?

what sauce said...
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Old 03-27-2010, 03:21 PM   #19
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Re: Could I have won more?

I was so ready to bet all of my money that I had left on the table too. : \
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Old 03-27-2010, 03:23 PM   #20
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Re: Could I have won more?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT111 View Post
Well, Ashman needs sth really strong to bet fv here given the action, no?
leading reps 0 bluffs, reps a ton of strength while ashman or runthistable may value cut themselves/occasionally bluff?
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Old 03-27-2010, 03:39 PM   #21
Sleyde
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Re: Could I have won more?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jungleman View Post
clearly check river imo, how could leading be better?
#
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Old 03-27-2010, 03:50 PM   #22
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Re: Could I have won more?

I like a slight overbet on the river... like bet 25k. I think you get paid by any flush and its way better than river c/r (that might whiff or not get paid)
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Old 03-27-2010, 03:52 PM   #23
Nick Rivers
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Re: Could I have won more?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Daniel Negreanu View Post
Could I have won more? I put RunThisTable on a flush when he over called the turn, but I was afraid he wouldn't bet. Maybe a really silly obvious hand so apologies in advance. Just curious if something thinks I could have done more with the hand.
I think your decision to lead the river instead of going for a check/raise is fine, but I think you should be making closer to a PSB. I think in terms of which play generates more EV, it goes ~PSB > c/r > ~1/2 PSB. But, I don't think the EV differential between those three choices is very big. The other option people have been discussing is the blocker bet. You throw out a lot of those (according to what you said in the other thread), so there's a chance it could work for you. That said, I think the chance of it getting just called is too high to make it optimal, plus it's also unlikely that, if it does get raised, that the raise will be very big or that he'll call your subsequent reraise. Maybe on balance a blocker is better than a ~1/2 PSB, but not by much.

So: ~PSB > c/r > blocker > ~1/2 PSB. IMO. But, again, against the ranges of your opponents, I don't think you cost yourself very much in the way of expectation (just shooting from the hip... maybe $1000 or so). Yes, a flush is very likely for RTT, but it doesn't represent 100% of his range, and it's not like he's going to stack off with a weak flush here anyway, because, regardless of how you play it, your hand is going to look very strong. As sauce123 pointed out, it sucks to be OOP.
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Old 03-27-2010, 04:12 PM   #24
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Re: Could I have won more?

its actually an incredibly interesting river spot. i think until the river you have played it perfectly.

the trouble with checking is that ashman is hardly ever bettng the river. his value range may not even contain every flush. idk his bluffing freq, but it seems pretty nuts to bluff that often here on the river when one of his opponents is likely to have a flush.
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Old 03-27-2010, 04:18 PM   #25
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Re: Could I have won more?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sh58 View Post
its actually an incredibly interesting river spot. i think until the river you have played it perfectly.

the trouble with checking is that ashman is hardly ever bettng the river. his value range may not even contain every flush. idk his bluffing freq, but it seems pretty nuts to bluff that often here on the river when one of his opponents is likely to have a flush.
i disagree ashman is hardly betting river. we check to crai. we should do this with lone Ac if we somehow have it as well.
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