Quote:
Originally Posted by thereitis
I feel like V should not have a lot of air on the flop. I guess if you count bad pairs as air then yes he has air.
Some assumptions for villain ranges.
Preflop calling 3b: Stronger Ax hands, pairs, some suited connected cards, suited broadways?
Calling flop bet: one pair hands, club draw, sets
River when he bets: 1 pair hand as bluff, trip 2s, flushes, full house
Some assumptions about your range.
Preflop 3bet: Stronger Ax hands, pairs, suited broadways, AXs
Flop bet: Close to 100% of your range could be betting flop.
Turn check: Ax, Kx, suited broadways, all pairs. sets might check some % of time. AcXc might check some of time.
Turn bet: flushes, some A high and pair hands you turn into bluffs.
River raise: AcXc,KK,88,22,44, bluffs made up of your Ax, suited broadways, pairs, etc.
River call: Kx I assume you might be inclined to call with top pair hands and bluff with anything worse.
Some villains are probably capable of folding hands as strong as trip 2s. But a lot of it depends on the villain and on your image. You have way more combos of bad hands that get to the river than good hands that get to the river. So if you bluff with even half of your bad hands your are heavily weighted to bluffs.
Villain needs to fold 60% of the time if you shove. If villain thinks you are only shoving full house and AcXc it should work much higher % than that. If villain thinks you are capable of shoving with air a reasonable % of the time then I think this shove will lose you money.
lol all this text for such a straight forward spot..
you are repping very thin by checking that turn and shoving the pairing river on a flush turn.. not many thinking regs ar gonna bet fold this river to your line
and if they do they are probably a bad reg or you are perceived as very nitty