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5-10 deep,3bet pot,river with air vs good thinking reg 5-10 deep,3bet pot,river with air vs good thinking reg

06-30-2015 , 09:00 PM
Villain is a winning thinking reg,opens wide
Hero's image is a tight
Hero with A9hh otb
Effective stacks 2500$
Villains opens 45$(standart for him), 2 calls with one fish,hero raises 210$,villain calls, all fold
Flop(420$): Kc8c2d
V checks,hero bet 300, v calls
Turn(1020$): 4c .
check,check
River: 2h
Villain bets 700$, hero?( 2000 behind)
Can i shove here?
06-30-2015 , 11:05 PM
your line makes very little sense if you shove now, pretty much repping KK or AQcc
07-01-2015 , 05:36 AM
I think his range on the flop is a K, fd,air,sets, river flush,air,sets
07-01-2015 , 08:26 AM
The river card is decent spot to bluff. The check behind the turn can be done KK/88 or any combo of AcXc. A lot depends on how the player perceives you, would he be the type to hero call you with Kx or fold a hand as strong as 2x or a flush?
07-09-2015 , 09:05 PM
I feel like V should not have a lot of air on the flop. I guess if you count bad pairs as air then yes he has air.

Some assumptions for villain ranges.
Preflop calling 3b: Stronger Ax hands, pairs, some suited connected cards, suited broadways?
Calling flop bet: one pair hands, club draw, sets
River when he bets: 1 pair hand as bluff, trip 2s, flushes, full house

Some assumptions about your range.
Preflop 3bet: Stronger Ax hands, pairs, suited broadways, AXs
Flop bet: Close to 100% of your range could be betting flop.
Turn check: Ax, Kx, suited broadways, all pairs. sets might check some % of time. AcXc might check some of time.
Turn bet: flushes, some A high and pair hands you turn into bluffs.
River raise: AcXc,KK,88,22,44, bluffs made up of your Ax, suited broadways, pairs, etc.
River call: Kx I assume you might be inclined to call with top pair hands and bluff with anything worse.

Some villains are probably capable of folding hands as strong as trip 2s. But a lot of it depends on the villain and on your image. You have way more combos of bad hands that get to the river than good hands that get to the river. So if you bluff with even half of your bad hands your are heavily weighted to bluffs.

Villain needs to fold 60% of the time if you shove. If villain thinks you are only shoving full house and AcXc it should work much higher % than that. If villain thinks you are capable of shoving with air a reasonable % of the time then I think this shove will lose you money.
07-09-2015 , 11:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thereitis
I feel like V should not have a lot of air on the flop. I guess if you count bad pairs as air then yes he has air.

Some assumptions for villain ranges.
Preflop calling 3b: Stronger Ax hands, pairs, some suited connected cards, suited broadways?
Calling flop bet: one pair hands, club draw, sets
River when he bets: 1 pair hand as bluff, trip 2s, flushes, full house

Some assumptions about your range.
Preflop 3bet: Stronger Ax hands, pairs, suited broadways, AXs
Flop bet: Close to 100% of your range could be betting flop.
Turn check: Ax, Kx, suited broadways, all pairs. sets might check some % of time. AcXc might check some of time.
Turn bet: flushes, some A high and pair hands you turn into bluffs.
River raise: AcXc,KK,88,22,44, bluffs made up of your Ax, suited broadways, pairs, etc.
River call: Kx I assume you might be inclined to call with top pair hands and bluff with anything worse.

Some villains are probably capable of folding hands as strong as trip 2s. But a lot of it depends on the villain and on your image. You have way more combos of bad hands that get to the river than good hands that get to the river. So if you bluff with even half of your bad hands your are heavily weighted to bluffs.

Villain needs to fold 60% of the time if you shove. If villain thinks you are only shoving full house and AcXc it should work much higher % than that. If villain thinks you are capable of shoving with air a reasonable % of the time then I think this shove will lose you money.
lol all this text for such a straight forward spot..
you are repping very thin by checking that turn and shoving the pairing river on a flush turn.. not many thinking regs ar gonna bet fold this river to your line
and if they do they are probably a bad reg or you are perceived as very nitty
07-09-2015 , 11:10 PM
had the turn action went check, bet, call.. and the river bet, shove then it would be a totally different scenario (assuming you had larger stacks)
08-24-2015 , 09:46 AM
You underrepped your hand and i don't think he's going to bet folding this river very often, in fact, villains bet looks very value heavy. Do you honestly think he thinks your shoving over the top with ak, if you had ak , you'd probably just call this river bet. So , no, i don't think you can shove here.
08-24-2015 , 06:46 PM
define "thinking reg"

      
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