OK hsnl, against my better judgment, I'm gonna post a hand. (Mods: x-post from msnl. If inappropriate, please delete this thread and leave msnl thread)

25/50. Villain is a middle-aged live "pro" who I think sucks pretty terribly. He survives solely off of the whales. But he's not the live-nit type. He certainly will bluff and mix it up, but he just takes bad lines and doesn't have any real understanding of ranges and such. But he's not an idiot. He plays cali and vegas games. I had been somewhat active, lost a 10K pot in a cooler hand. Nothing really significant.

Villain has about 20K and I cover.

Villain limps utg, couple other limpers. I raise otb with KJ to $250. Villain calls. Others fold.

Flop 6TJ. Villain checks. I bet $400. Villain calls.
Turn 3. Villain checks. I bet 1100. Villain raises to 3500. I think for a small amount of time and call.
River Q. Villain bets 7500.

I think he raises a set otf quite often given the draw-heavy board, but flatting certainly is not completely out of the question. If he flats, I'd expect him to take this line, but I just don't think he flats a set very often.

If he was semi-bluffing the turn with Q9 or KQ, I'd expect him to either check the river or make more of a blocking bet. I would also expect a check or blocking bet from TJ because that river card sucks. His river bet size seems very polarizing.

QJ is unlikely given turn c/r.

Obv 89 and AK get there. AK seems unlikely for obv reasons.

All that said, I don't beat ****. Snap fold and I'm just overthinking???

I mean, I'm pretty sure this is an easy fold, but I guess I'm just curious if my analysis is accurate.

Thanks

how fast did he bet the river?
seems like the faster he bet the faster i call.

most of his value hands should be concerned with that river card, so even if he decides to go for thin value, he should at least have to give serious consideration to checking that specific river card.

generally when ppl don't care at all about a texture changing card they have total air or the nuts....and given his turn CR it seems as though he should have total air here more then the nuts.

he bet river pretty fast, within fifteen seconds

well the difference between five and fifteen seconds here is enoooormous

isnt shove better than a call btw?

yeah i fold

Do we think villain will fold 98 ever?

yeah, don't know if it is 7.2167947 seconds, but he barely hesitated after the river card was dealt before he bet. So I'd say closer to 5 seconds than 15 seconds.

lol why is that relevant? Obv not, but sets and 2 pairs are another story. All in all I probably just fold though you really don't beat much

sets/2 pairs are discounted because he is unlikely to slowplay on this board, villain would play 98 this way very often.

9 combos of sets/2 pairs
16 combos 98

I dont know how accurate these assumptions are though.

not saying he never has 98, just that he's never folding it to a shove