So what the OP is saying is if $X represents some HUGE % of ur bankroll/life money.... can you make this call. I can understand folding under those circumstances....

but if that's the case, I can't see playing in the game -- if you are that underolled.

this is completely false. opportunity of a lifetime. worth the financial risk.

this is the dumbest thread ive ever read in my life

Those Billion Dollar hedge fund manager are now probably 600 Million Dollar hedge fund managers.

you shouldnt be in this game, you are obviously terrible

he gets to pick the brains of best hedge fund managers in the world about poker! how bad could he be?

onepac, you're jesse right?

i was out in LA few months ago, I'm Jordan. we played the 5/10 uncapped game a few times, i thought this had to be you saying 'ding dong' haha.

anyways, i'd def. snap this off...and dont' gamble with monies u cant afford to lose.



im hoping to come back out there in feb for lapc, get me into some of these games please!

Finance theory that applies here is: preserving optionality. If ur in a game where you're a 90 percent favorite and ur a 60/40 its an insta fold correct. Unless u understand "preserving optionality" and other finance theory you can't really comment too strongly. Its about risk adjusted returns. Rational investors prefer lower varience with same return given certain percent chance to see same returns.........silly example- Barry Bonds sees GOOD first pitch and passes because he feels confident he'll see a better pitch.

dude, you're in a forum mostly for professional poker players. world class nl players are giving you advice, and you're arguing that they are all unqualified to do so unless they understand finance theory.

this is like saying that top kickboxers/mma fighters are doing it wrong because they don't know how to do dragon kicks, which you, as an amateur, have mastered. guess what, it it were a good idea/relevant, they would all be doing it and the ones that couldn't would no longer be top fighters.

similarly, insofar as your 'advanced' finance knowledge is a prerequisite to be able to make decisions in poker, trust me, most HS players understand it, and it either doesn't apply in this particular situation, or it still leads to you being wrong.

even if we accept your billion dollar coffee boy friends as the ultimate authority on the subject, all that means is that this is one spot where poker and finance are different.

and once again, nobody is saying it's inherently 'wrong' to pass up +EV opportunities to avoid variance. depending on your expectation in the game overall, you have a certain window where you can afford that. but there's a point, somewhere between 'play your normal game' and 'check/fold to any bet but still post your blinds', beyond which it's better to just suck it up, even considering the opportunity cost if you lose. calling a 65BB all in from the mark with a set is one of those spots, regardless of the history you provided.

This has become too painful. 1) im not saying its a fold, im saying its something to think about considering i thought there was a good chance i was behind 2) i gave the opinion of experts in the field of analyzin risk which what poker basically is. I never even stated my opinion and Im gettin attacked, this is awesome, LOL

if only there was something like this in poker...

like some sort of tournament where you cant rebuy... that weve all played extensively and which some people here are world class at... then you could get useful replies.

nice

painful read

you're not getting attacked for your opinion, you're getting attacked for your attitude. seriously how freakin hard is it not to be a moron about this.

here's how to do it

- you: ok so i played this hand, did x, was that all right? not sure about y, but my thought process was z
- experts: nah man better do a, because b. and your thought process didn't take into account c
- you: hmm ok that makes sense, thanks!
or alternatively
- you: that sounds reasonable. but how about ...?
- experts: good point, but ...
- you: i don't understand. please explain
- experts: nah we've already given out too much, sry. think it over on your own


here's what you do:

- you: ok so i played this hand, did x, was that all right? not sure about y, but my thought process was z
- experts: nah man better do a, because b. and your thought process didn't take into account c
- you: but but but he hadn't raised a single hand
- expert 1: wtf man count how many blinds he has tho
- expert 2, with good track record of live play: also experience tells me he's fos anyway
[blah blah more valuable advice]
- you: doesn't anyone agree with me?
- experts: nah doesn't look like it. take that fwiw
- you: but my big shot finance buddies agree with me!
- experts: who is better qualified to give poker advice - us or experts in some different field? take that fwiw too, you would do well to pick your teachers wisely. also you're doing this wrong, do ... instead and you'll get more out of these forums
- you: nooooo bitches you're wrong you don't know anything about finance which in the end == poker. so fu ure wrong.
- experts: sigh
- you: wtf wtf why does everyone keep attacking me? why can't you just tell me that i'm right? i mean i came here to learn but as it turns out learning new things kind of blows. i'd much rather just win arguments. why can't people just tell me i'm right? wah wah wah

LMAO! im with "big shot finance buddy" right now and we honestly got a good laugh outta that, that was funny.

So since like 10 2p2'ers played in this game at various points/stakes... someone might as well fill everyone in about when and where this took place.

lol.. this post is hilarious, i can't believe I actually read the whole thing. Onepac, bro, u seem like an alright guy... but listen to what people are telling you, because you are wrong on this one. It's a call. Maybe given some of the factors you were saying, it's close, but it's still a call. The fact that he had total AIR, not even a draw, almost definitely means that you're evaluation of the likelihood of him having A/B/C in his range, weighting strongly towards sets/straight was probably off, and he was more likely to be bluffing/semi-bluffing then you thought anyways.
Your one point that you seem to be hanging on to is risk-management, and honestly the point every poker player is trying to make to you is that if you think the $$ is so big that you are passing up a "60/40" (an offhand estimate u used earlier i believe), then you should not be playing the game. No poker player can pass up 60/40's to "find something better" (PH notwithstanding obv, he can wait for 75/25+). So if the game was so big that you feel that way, then previous posters are right that you should have quit the game because you are -ev if you are going to play so nitty that you should pass up 60/40's for BR management reasons.
Honestly, u probably were -ev playing like a huge nit... u said yourself you were extremely nitty, had never raised a turn... etc... i sincerely doubt that in a 3 handed game, with u super-nitting it up, you were 90% to get the money later if you folded here. That aspect of your analysis is way off. This "fish" was probably running u over to enough of an extent that you weren't as +ev as u thought (if at all).

Alright? And also, about your financial buddies... just because they now help manage a billion-dollar fund does not make them better equipped to answer this question. BR/risk-management is a pretty central part of playing poker, something most pros understand at least theoretically. Additionally, I think there are many intelligent professional poker players that could easily have become "billion-dollar hedge fund managers" if they wanted it and applied themselves... not to mention that based on a lot of things that I have read hedge-fund managing is more luck-based then poker playing, so someone who is "successful" at that is less likely to actually be good at what they are doing.

Food for thought...

Normally when I'm playing someone live who I think I have a decent edge on I don't go on an internet forum calling them a 'ding-dong'. These rich players can play with whoever they like and they are not obligated to supply you a living.

onepac are u leslie phillips?

lollerskates, you are so confident that finance rich guys are bad at poker that you'll fold sets to "wait for a better spot" yet your defense of the play is "finance rich guys told me it was right"

Nice.

1000% agreed with that statement (99% of the time). However, with this particular rich player it doesnt apply.

Good Reply: The 60/40 and 90% edge numbers were just an example.

Also, it should be clear that I thought I was behind in the hand, I really "felt" like I was an 80/20 dog against his range fwiw. Should also be clear that I AGREE THAT IT WAS A CALL, was just giving the opinion of some fairly intelligent people and what they had to say.

Another point, many people have said, "dont sit if the money......" that is not the question, the question is, given that I AM IN THE GAME AND A PARTICULAR SITUATION HAS ARRIVED, blah, blah, blah.

Also, I havent been raising because of the flow of the game, not because Im playing with scared money. The game is "ABOVE MY ROLL" Not my entire roll. I can afford it, I just dont have 20 buyins.

2 other notes,
1)he did shove like 3 other times prior to my departure after the 555 hand, all 3 were the NUTS (or 2nd).

2) After this hand, I ended up netting an additional 100k-ish, the amount that I felt i could get from him if I folded. People are not acknowledging that he is paying as poorly as one can play, that's somehow been forgotten in this discussion.

you played the hand awful given your read. If he doesnt fold a pair, raise the flop. Your turn raise was too small given the gutters/FD/he doesnt fold a pair. Its an instacall and not even remotely close, unless you would be unable to play and earn a living. I dont know how you can stay in the game and not call there. If the river is a 3 and he bets big, are you just going to call again? Youre at the same risk of going broke now, as you will be when he reloads to 500k or whatever.

chris berman, mike ditka, tom jackson and steve young said this is a call

impossible!!!! Steve Young folds, he owns a FUND of FUND. Chris, Mike and Tom probably call.