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Who Will Be The First Woman Poker Player To Win The WSOP Main Event? Who Will Be The First Woman Poker Player To Win The WSOP Main Event?

03-21-2011 , 06:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hotjenny314
Probably the worst played hand ever on Poker After Dark by Tilly, in case you haven't seen it. (Ivey's face and Harman's look of digust make me LOL every single time.)
Jennifer Tilly is an insult to female poker players everywhere... I'd go as far as to say poker players in general. Jesus that hand made no sense..
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03-21-2011 , 06:19 PM
Lol, nice ninja-mod-ing skills, jmurder!

I like Jennifer Tilly, and think she improved a lot in the aftermath of this tragic hand. It has to suck sooo hard to have a hand like this on tv.
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03-21-2011 , 06:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamieAnn
It has to suck sooo hard to have a hand like this on tv.
Yeah, I was thinking that too. I have to imagine that must have been real motivation to improve. And she does have something I don't have-- a WSOP bracelet ffs. I can't speak for how good she is now, but obv that hand was terrrrible.
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03-21-2011 , 06:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CAisaiah5710
If I say me, does that make me entirely too pompous or just generally dellusional?
Dear CAisaiah5710:

It would be great if you were to win since it would make your dog very happy. (That's the nice thing about dogs - they'll lick your face and love you no matter what!) Also, if you win you can laugh in the face of that man who wished you ovarian cancer. (I need to work on my understanding of advanced math - especially probability and statistics.)

Former DJ
Who Will Be The First Woman Poker Player To Win The WSOP Main Event? Quote
03-21-2011 , 07:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CAisaiah5710
Jennifer Tilly is an insult to female poker players everywhere... I'd go as far as to say poker players in general. Jesus that hand made no sense..
Well, this is a tad harsh.
Everyone goes through stages of their poker development. We were all terribad at some point

Also, at some point we have to realize and admit though, that even though people in general may not have the most respect for a specific player's game, in this case Tilly, one cannot ignore the fact that her win did it's part in boosting poker awareness and women's poker due to the fact that she was a known actress prior to poker.
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03-21-2011 , 07:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamieAnn
Lol, nice ninja-mod-ing skills, jmurder!
ooohhhh I missed it.
Get'em JM
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03-21-2011 , 10:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamieAnn
Lol, nice ninja-mod-ing skills, jmurder!

I like Jennifer Tilly, and think she improved a lot in the aftermath of this tragic hand. It has to suck sooo hard to have a hand like this on tv.
Never met her but she seems awesome...also have a feeling she's a lot better at poker than people think. I listened to an interview with about six months ago on 2+2 and while she didn't talk much about poker strategy she seemed extremely smart and motivated--and yes, she talked about how annoying it is that people still come up to her in person and ask her about that hand, lol.
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03-21-2011 , 10:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamieAnn
Lol, nice ninja-mod-ing skills, jmurder!
Technically speaking that was just modding...when I used to sit around 4L & edit people's posts within 5 mins (usually to fix things they did against the rules), so there was no trace of it...that was ninja-modding.

& when I used to sit around for a few hours during work at my old job adding an applicable youtube link or picture to every omg post within 5 mins...

I figured I can't take away all your fun with responding to trolls, but I can't leave the troll post up, so seemed like a good compromise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by katie75013
ooohhhh I missed it.
Get'em JM
Venice usually beats me to it, but occasionally I get 1 1st

Also, as for the math, I'm just going to do it really roughly, but last year, if the men & women in the tournament are assumed to be of equal skill, there was a 23.4% chance a woman would make the final table (& a 95% chance a woman would make the top 100).
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03-22-2011 , 12:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Former DJ
Dear CAisaiah5710:

It would be great if you were to win since it would make your dog very happy. (That's the nice thing about dogs - they'll lick your face and love you no matter what!) Also, if you win you can laugh in the face of that man who wished you ovarian cancer. (I need to work on my understanding of advanced math - especially probability and statistics.)

Former DJ
Let me calculate the odds that I was just insulted...

...nope I need a bigger calculator
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03-22-2011 , 02:20 AM
That clip never gets old.
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03-22-2011 , 03:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hotjenny314
Probably the worst played hand ever on Poker After Dark by Tilly, in case you haven't seen it. (Ivey's face and Harman's look of digust make me LOL every single time.)
Ivey's face is hilarious for sure.

I think that Tiffany Williamson's call of Greg Raymer moving all in was actually worse though.

Back story; at some point earlier Shawn Sheikhan had reraised Tiffany Williamson all in after she raised in early position. TW then took literally over a half hour to fold KJs. And then had the audacity to ask if she could she Shawn's hand after a clock was called and time ran out on her.

WSOP 2005, blinds might have been 15k/30k

UTG raises (maybe 90K or so)
UTG+1 Tiffany re-raises with AJ (???)
MP1 Fossilman re-re-raises all in with an entire table to act behind him.
Lots of folds, including UTG who was raising with 77 (likely the bottom of his range).

Tiffany asks how much it is. Raymer has his chips all in neat stacks and says "1.3 million EXACTLY" (or whatever the number was). TW probably has about 2 million or so.

Tiffany: "Count it!" not please count it or may I have a count, or just taking the defending world champs word for the clearly lined up stacks in front of him.

Immediately Shawn Sheikhan calls a clock. TW protests that Fossilman hasn't even counted his chips yet. Shawn replies "he told you what he has lady." As much as a jerk that SS is, I thought he was spot on in doing this to her.

Raymer ignores all this, counts all his chips again, and of course, it's exactly the same number he gave her before.

Finally after some banter, TW calls, Raymer has KK and it holds up.

I really don't think that Raymer's range here is wider than AA or KK; I'm not thinking he makes this move with 2 raises in front and everyone left to act with AK or QQ even. He wasn't short stacked at the time, and the raise from UTG was from a fairly solid player.

Even if you debate that we should include AK QQ JJ, Tiffanys AJ is crushed.

I got a lot of flack for criticizing the play of Tiffany Williamson in this event, in fact left one women's poker forum over it. But she luckboxed a lot and took enormous amounts of time to make decisions. Her play was bad and her poker etiquette was worse.

What really irritated me was that I felt that ESPN had taken great pains to include coverage of legitimate female pros like Barbara Enright, Jennifer Harmon, et al. Finally there was only one woman to focus on, and she was doing things like this.

But all I heard from some quarters of the women's community was how the media was picking on poor Tiffany, how guys were calling the clock on her just because she was a woman. Actually most players were trying to be chivalrous and not call the clock on her even though she was playing at the speed of the Human Rain Delay

Didn't mean to derail the thread, but sadly the last woman who got close (15th) didn't represent us particularly well. Actually the other Tiffany wasn't particularly ethical either. Maybe we should just stay away from sending women with that name to the event.

On another note, most folks know that Barbara Enright was the only woman to make the final table at the WSOP ME (1995), and that Annie Duke came in 10th in 2000. But I rarely hear anyone mention Susie Isaacs 10th place finish (1998). She's not the flashiest or most aggressive player out there, but I wish she would at least be given her props more for that finish.

Shauna
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03-22-2011 , 09:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamieAnn
It will be a variance hiccup if you ever lose your virginity (w/o paying)
i'm happily married, but thanks for the concern. and if you'd like to bet on what the outcome of a poll would be if i put up a picture of her alongside a picture of you, i'd be happy to.

the point of my post, before it was edited by a ridiculously over-zealous mod, was really only to point out a statistical property. and to express confusion over the use of the term "foot in mouth" for something that as of now is still true.

edit: and don't worry crazy mods, i won't bother posting in this forum again. i'll allow this happy little world of delusion to exist peacefully....

Last edited by =_=; 03-22-2011 at 09:38 AM.
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03-22-2011 , 09:49 AM
Darn, we were all learning so much from your posts...
I'm very happy for you and your hotter-than-a-random-internet-poster wife. I'm not surprised in the least that you chose to discuss her looks to prove her worth, rather than any other quality.
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03-22-2011 , 10:57 AM
Nothing says "over-zealous" and "crazy" like a warning

I can't imagine what you must think of the mods who actually infracted you. Enjoy the rest of the forums on 2+2 and your "hot" wife
Who Will Be The First Woman Poker Player To Win The WSOP Main Event? Quote
03-22-2011 , 03:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamieAnn
Darn, we were all learning so much from your posts...
I'm very happy for you and your hotter-than-a-random-internet-poster wife. I'm not surprised in the least that you chose to discuss her looks to prove her worth, rather than any other quality.
WP!
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03-22-2011 , 04:08 PM
Shauna, I was mortified over Tiffany Williamson's play + behavior in that event as well. Her tank with KJ was such a joke. The best part about it is that I think she was seriously considering calling. No offense to the tourney players but I guess that's why they call them "donkaments." Anyone has a chance.
Who Will Be The First Woman Poker Player To Win The WSOP Main Event? Quote
03-22-2011 , 05:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamieAnn
Darn, we were all learning so much from your posts...
I'm very happy for you and your hotter-than-a-random-internet-poster wife. I'm not surprised in the least that you chose to discuss her looks to prove her worth, rather than any other quality.
lololololoolol
I guess we better get used to our delusional reality girls.
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03-25-2011 , 04:36 AM
I think this thread underestimates how much attention a woman reaching the november 9 will get. (especially if she's has a good story line)
Like it or not, most of the world series publicity happens during that time period, and the story lines are set then. Actually winning would be a cherry on top publicity-wise.
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03-25-2011 , 04:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Former DJ
James McManus made light of this in his epic book "Positively Fifth Street," but years ago Amarillo "Slim" Preston allegedly opened his mouth and inserted his foot by declaring that a woman would "never" win the WSOP Main Event. (According to McManus, Slim supposedly declared that he would take a knife and slit his throat if a woman ever won the Main Event. There's even a photograph of Slim standing behind Kathy Liebert mockingly holding a large carving knife to his throat in "Fifth Street".) To the best of my knowledge, Barbara Enright is the closest lady poker player to (nearly) grab the brass ring - she made the final table and finished fifth in the 1995 WSOP Main Event. To this day, no lady poker player has come closer to the final table than Barbara did in 1995.

I have actually given this a great deal of thought as I'm convinced that the first female poker player to win the Main Event will not only achieve a great personal victory, but such a triumph will reignite interest in poker by the media as well as the general public. Once the media gets wind of Slim's boastful prediction that a woman will "never" win the Main Event - combined with the sudden realization that a woman has made the final table and is in actual contention - it will be the poker world's equivalent of Bobby Riggs versus Billie Jean King. (Just ask Vince Van Patten what that was like.)

There was the "Moneymaker Effect" back in 2003, but a woman making the final table (and actually winning!) the Main Event will be replayed on ESPN at least a million times. (OK, I exxagerate - maybe it will only be replayed a hundred thousand times ...) The bottom line is that the first woman to win the Main Event will take poker (and interest in our beloved game) to a whole new level. So the tantalizing question is: "Who do you believe will be the first female poker player to climb poker's Mount Everest and win the big one?" Which lady poker player will force Amarillo "Slim" Preston to eat his words?

I'm going on record with my prediction now. I can't put my finger on why I think this - call it male intuition if you like - but I believe Vanessa Selbst could be the lady to do it. She's already winning large field tournaments (while simultaneously working her way through law school!) so she definitely has the talent and ability. I also sense that she has an intangible that is vital to becoming a champion poker player: She makes other players cringe in fear. (To put it in very crass terms, Vanessa plays like a man ...)

It may be another ten years before a woman wins the Main Event, (who really knows?), but it will happen sooner or later. I just hope I'm still alive to see it when it does happen. If that day comes sooner rather than later, I have a feeling Vanessa Selbst will be (could be) the first lady poker player to hoist the winner's trophy. I'm curious as to what all you lady poker players think? Do you think Vanessa has the inside track - or maybe another top female poker player like Jennifer Harman or Vanessa Rousso - or even yourself perhaps!?

Former DJ
ive said many times that a woman winning the main event would be the best thing that could ever happen to poker. unfortunately you cant choose your winner and if past wsop champs are any indication she will be a horribad luckbox. actually if i could choose i would prefer she be the female gold/moneymaker/yang type. more gold i would say, shell end up on every talk show from conan to the view and being quirky, engaging well spoken will be a big plus.
Who Will Be The First Woman Poker Player To Win The WSOP Main Event? Quote
03-25-2011 , 04:27 PM
LIVE BOEREE, I BET MY BANKROLL ON IT! lol
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03-25-2011 , 06:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NhlNut
I think this thread underestimates how much attention a woman reaching the november 9 will get.
I think the value of a woman making the final table alone would easily be worth more than first place to her. If she is a full-time player and wants to do poker/endorsements I think the value is likely well over 25 million over the course of her life (not even counting future potential earnings from the sponsored tourneys she plays).

Also, one time this year pls pls pls?
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03-26-2011 , 02:42 AM
Sadly I think that this is true only if she is young and hot. An old battleaxe like me would likely to be doing well to to celebrity rehab shows.

How does everyone here feel about the double standard. It's still true in way too many respects that men are judged on talent and women on looks.

Shauna
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03-26-2011 , 02:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Former DJ
Dear jenium:

Keeping in mind the fact that I am very "mathematically challenged," I have been reading the Wikipedia page on Fixed-odds betting:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-odds_betting

and trying to figure out what a good betting line would be for placing money on a lady player to final table the Main Event. I notice your conclusion that "on balance" it should be about even money. I just don't see how it can be even money. If we go with the American preference for bookmakers of setting "Moneyline" odds, then I would think the payoff odds should be considerably higher than +100 for even money. My (flawed?) thinking is that the moneyline odds should be much higher - like say +2,500 for a $2,500 payoff on a $100 wager - since I "guesstimate" that a woman player's chance of making the final table is something on the order of 24-to-1 against. Here is my reasoning.

Let's suppose that 8,000 players enter the Main Event. Let's also suppose that 1 of every 25 players who enter are women, so the ratio of male players to female players is 24:1. (Maybe somebody like hotjenny314 knows the exact numbers from last year and can give more precise ratios based on last year's numbers.) That ratio is heavily weighted in favor of the men. In fact, if my "guesstimates" are anywhere close to being accurate, the sheer numbers would suggest that the deck is stacked heavily against the women. OK, take 8,000 entrants, divide that number by 25, and what do you get? My calculation is 320 women entering the Main Event. (I have a feeling that number is too high. If fewer than 320 women enter the Main Event, then the "true odds" would be higher than what I'm guesstimating, but I'm going with 320 for the sake of argument.) The question then boils down to: What are the real odds that just one of those 320 women will survive down to the final nine players? I think the real odds are somewhere between 20-to-1 against and 24-to-1 against. Translated into moneyline odds, the betting line should be set at somewhere in the neighborhood of +2,000 to +2,500. (I have a sinking feeling that no bookmaker is going to offer a betting line that high on a woman final tabling the Main Event.)

Since my number, (i.e. +2,000 to +2,500), is considerably higher than your number, (i.e. +100), perhaps you can explain to me how my reasoning is flawed? I don't understand "advanced math," but it just seems to me that the payoff odds for a woman final tabling the Main Event should be a lot higher than even money. Considering the sheer numbers that a lady player will have to overcome, I would think that the betting line would have to be (at least) +2,000 to be a good bet. (I also have a suspicion that the oddsmakers will set the line at something like +1,000 which is a terrible number - unless you're the bookie setting the line!)

Former DJ
This is a first - replying to my own post.

In this week's "Pokercast" (Episode 165), Mike Johnson and Adam Schwartz discuss betting lines for a woman finishing the Main Event in one of the top 40 places as well as a woman making the November Nine final table. (Pinnacle, a web site that accepts bets, is setting betting lines for various prop bets in this year's WSOP. The discussion of betting lines for these prop bets begins around the 48 minute mark in the Pokercast. The discussion of betting lines for prop bets involving women begins around the 53:40 mark of the Pokercast.)

I'm (definitely!) confused on how betting lines work as Mike and Adam are throwing numbers around (like +140 and -1,500) and complaining about "the vig". The impression I get from their discussion is that taking a bet on a woman to go deep in this year's Main Event is a bad bet not because they're betting against a woman, but because they think Pinnacle has set a bad (or incorrect) line. (I'll have to go back and relisten to the Pokercast, but I'm really confused about that -1,500 number and what that number actually means.) I thought the line for a woman to make the November Nine final table should be somewhere in the neighborhood of +2,000 to +2,500 but apparently that number is way too high, so I'm clearly confused as to how betting lines work and what the plus and minus numbers actually mean. (I have enough trouble trying to figure out something simple - like pot odds.)

Former DJ
Who Will Be The First Woman Poker Player To Win The WSOP Main Event? Quote
03-26-2011 , 04:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AAmaz0n
Sadly I think that this is true only if she is young and hot. An old battleaxe like me would likely to be doing well to to celebrity rehab shows.

...

Shauna
I almost went there but refrained.
I think a "mom" or "grandmother" type could also make big waves.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Former DJ
but because they think Pinnacle has set a bad (or incorrect) line.
Former DJ
No opinion on the subject, but I wouldn't count on Pinny setting an incorrect line.
Who Will Be The First Woman Poker Player To Win The WSOP Main Event? Quote
03-26-2011 , 12:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hotjenny314
Probably the worst played hand ever on Poker After Dark by Tilly, in case you haven't seen it. (Ivey's face and Harman's look of digust make me LOL every single time.)
Yeah, but the worst-played hand in the ME was arguably that same Greatest Player Ivey mucking his winning flush. We all do dum s- stuff - when we start out. Or in the middle or near the end. One bad TV moment does not a totality of ability make.

That said, I think she and Phil mostly play cash and maybe she's really pretty bad, but we have no way of knowing. I know she did win some trny or other recently, Phil Tweeted about it.
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