I just had my Pay Pal account verified.

So why don't we do $5 for each person who wishes to get in. If we are lucky enough to win this thing(ONE TIME FROM EVERYONE!) I would like to have a lawyer claim it for us as a group and place it in a trust fund so the less people know the better. Watching and reading about the horror stories of lotto winners and talking to friends of mine who work in a bank told me this is the best route. If anyone has an issue with this please let me know. Also, I will email to those who are in this pictures of the tickets I have purchased so we can keep this off the pages if need be. Am I missing something else?


Contract would be equal share to everyone who purchases $5 of lotto tickets AND username is verified on this thread by me as well as Mods. Sound fair?

Sounds fine to me; just let me know where to ship.

Edit: And note to everyone, make sure you don't send via Paypal in a manner where PayPal collects a fee.

Only Ladies or what, Id like to get insomething like this!

the lotto is such a ****in pipe dream, lolz. but its sick cause hey ya never know.

Sounds good to me.. I am ready to ship when everything is set up.

Whether you can do this (have an attorney claim it for the group) depends on the state where the tickets are purchased, I believe. Some states make people attend a press conference and some do not.

OK, so my bank account on pay pal is not verified and might not be until Friday. This is very frustrating.

Here's the disclaimer I promised (if this actually does happen):

Is this actually +ev? I know when it gets big if you won the jackpot no matter what if you won it's super +ev but does the fact that even if you run good enough to hit the jackpot you might have to split it make it -ev?

If it ends up being even close to +ev I'm interested, probably for $100-$200, although I'm not female. Also if you can't find someone else I can escrow/buy the tickets I have a pretty solid rep paid out 6 figures this summer my name is public (Zach Hall) and ton of people on 2p2 have met me in person/know a ton of info about me and stuff. I'd think if this were a TWSS pool you'd want someone from here doing that but given that it doesn't seem anyone is stepping forward I can do it if no one else wants to.

Also if you just want it to be a small thing I can understand too but if it ends up being +ev I'm thinking of trying to get a bunch of people in and buy a bunch and be getting like a thousand tickets. Thoughts?

On a small scale, it's not +EV due to taxes. If one, I repeat ONE person bought every combination and wrote off all the losers, then it could be +EV. If two people did it though, it would be -EV.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18...ns-ev-1185932/

Edit: Now the est. jackpot is $540M vs. $500M yesterday ($389M vs $359M cash option). EV has definitely dropped since jackpot splitting is almost assured at this point. A chance of a rollover will now roughly be: 8.95%. A chance of a sole winner will be 21.6% and the chance of a jackpot split will be 69.4%.

I would be willing to paypal some money for this if gay guys are allowed to participate

I hope everyone wins...



I already have my tickets.
hahahaha

Thanks. So assuming your math is right, 1/176000000*(0.216*540000000+.694*270000000) = 1.72738636. Obviously the jackpot will occasionally be split 3+ ways as well, but I also haven't accounted for the small prizes yet but I can't imagine the number being lower than 1.

That said I'm definitely doing a 2p2 one, I think I'm going to try to get exactly 1000 tickets so each $1 put into the pool will get 0.1% of the total payout, pm me if interested.

FYI, every single combination has been played. There will be a winner for sure.


I will try to have pay pal verify my bank by tonight. If not I can't do it.

My pool's sold out now.

I have Pay Pal and can buy the tickets if you want.


Shauna

I'll paypal $5-$10 if someone is still doing this.

How did you figure this out?

There was an official notice of this? I doubt officials would publicly announce this.

$500M in sales <> Every combination played

(175711535/175711536)^500M = 0.0581 = 5.81% chance winning numbers not bought.

Actually the jackpot split probabilities are worse than that (based on $540M est jackpot) because

2 winners = 26.1%
3 winners = 20.1%
4 winners = 12.1%
5 winners = 6.1%
6 winners = 2.46%
etc...

Also for EV calculations you can't use the annuity jackpot value. You need to use the cash value.

After taxes, this draw is -EV, but it's pretty close to neutral.

I got merge$ for tickets. I'm buying my own, but wouldn't mind getting in on the pool action as well. lmk if this gets worked out.

Why is this? I thought 2 winners = 50% 3 winners = 33% etc...

Friend actually ended up doing the exact calculations last night it comes out to about 1.40 in ev per ticket if you take it over time or 1.06 if you take lump sum. That just uses P(someone hitting) using binomial distribution (works out to 89.x%) and multiplies that by jackpot divided by number of tickets bought. But that obv doesn't work if 2 winners means they each only get 26.1%...

who else is doing a pool???? I am dying to get in on this. Right now i am comfortable with $10 a person

Yeah, I was giving you the binomial distribution numbers. The math you showed assumed that 64% of ppl got half the jackpot. Not like the numbers I wrote mean anything anymore...jackpot annuity went up $100M. lol

OK, I couldn't do it and I feel bad because my bank account has not been verified yet.