Most of my games are 5$ reg speed HUSNG on IPoker in which I have a 3.9% ROI. I was looking the Good Roi? thread http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18...od-roi-994507/ and people are saying 15% is a good ROI. So... I suck, basically...

The thing is I am extremely confident on my game when playing with 30bb or more. HEM says I am winning for 21bb/100 at these stacks and those count for 75% of total hands. But when it comes to playing shallow I can't win.

Those are my stats filtered by effective stacks (15 to 20 bb):
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While stats are not so helpful overall I am sure there are lots of useful information when filtering to shallow stacks. I know some people on this forum can quickly recognize some leaks on my game just looking at this. (I know my 3bet% is one.)

Overall stats:
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I am posting the overall stats because I want to point some interesting stuff.

1st: While I am winning at 12.60 bb/100, which some people consider crushing at cash games, I am a break-even player at HUSNG.

2nd: The phase between 15-20bb count for just 10% of total hands, but is by far the more important stage. I am guessing 80% or more of the edge of a skilled HUSNG player comes from these. It is not brainless push/fold like playing w/ 10bb or less, but it is very mechanical and mathematical, there is not much flexibility, and each mistake is very expensive.

3rd: Variance is probably not bigger, but MUUUUUCH bigger than most people think. Shallow stack play is just 25% of hands in HUSNG, but the blinds are much bigger in avarage, so having an edge playing deep is not more important than having an edge playing shallow.
In 800 HUSNG I have 5500 hands w/ eff. stack < 20bb. The shorter you are the lesser the edge, so a good player probably has a real winrate of 5bb/100. Using the poker winrate confidence interval calculator with a 40bb/100 std deviation we see that after 25000 hands we can have 0 bb/100 actual winrate. And even after 100000 hands the actual winrate can deviate 2.5bb from the real winrate.
So this good player needs AT LEAST 25000 hands of shallow play to be 95% confident he will AT LEAST break even. That is 5x more hands than I have or 4000 games. To be sure of his real ROI he probably needs 6x this amount of games.

Well, this was much bigger than I expected.

Anyway, I would like people to comment on my toughts, take a look on my stats and if possible give me advice on how to improve my shallow play.

It would be interesting if people posted their stats filtered by eff. stack between 15 to 20bb, I think there is a lot of information there, and probably a pattern between huge winners.

You do use NASH under 10bb, right?

Play superturbos to work on your endgame. They start at 25 bb.

Some common weak points at 10-20 bb that come to mind:
- Flatting raises oop under ~15bb
- Playing too few hands ip and too many oop
- Min-raising wide around 10-20bb when opponent is 3-bet-jamming a lot
- Not 3-bet-jamming enough at 10-15bb when opponent is raising wide
- Generally not being aggressive enough when stacks are shallow

If you have the money I recommend buying husng.com membership for a month and watching superturbo videos of Mersenneary and Cog Dissonance. Then start playing superturbos to test your skills.

Was looking thorugh my posts and came to this thread. I can't remember why I didn't answer Bombardir and let the thread die since it started, but I think it is still valid for discussion purposes.

@ Bombardir: I agree with everything you say, but I don't think I had most of those leaks you pointed, as you can see by my stats, and I am a huge loser w/ shallow stacks. This bring me back to the variance aspect being so big, that after 800 games my actual winrate and my true winrate has a difference of 15bb/100 or more when shallow.

FYP

just kinda glanced through, but your stats look REALLY nitty.
and your variance talk was quite hand wavy and mostly inaccurate. I won't be fixing any of it though and will not be less vague about it, sorry
tbh I wouldn't worry about variance or anything, just worry about playing good poker, plugging leaks, and putting in good volume and variance won't be important.

That is possible, but I don't think it is a big leak against the opponents I was facing, usually they call a lot OOP on this level, so I don't think there is much value on raising more than 70% pre.

This is too bad, cuz I would love to hear why you think it is mostly inaccurate. By what I read on these forums I would think most good players would agree that variance is vastly bigger than most people believe.

I definitely agree with the playing good poker part, but I still think it is very important to understand variance if some want to succeed on this game.

variance sucks, but it averages out quickly and you end up with relatively short downswings.

Try playing mtts 180mans and other formats like that where 500BI downswings are standard. That's variance.

Like yeah there's a lot of variance. 1k games is a small sample almost always (maybe not deeps?). But it's really not that bad when you grind grind grind and keep improving your game along the way.

play more hands OOP, way more, way way more 15 - 20bbs

also low turn cbet from sb