What odds are fair for this supernova prop bet - Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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What odds are fair for this supernova prop bet

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12-01-2011 , 08:53 PM

jenbones

adept

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 908

So i've made 72k vpps on stars playing mtts and husngs. Now from playing husngs no higher than $60, i need to make 27k in december to get to SN.

Me and a friend are wanting to bet on this, me thinking i can do it and him thinking i can't, what odds are fair?

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12-01-2011 , 08:59 PM

RiverKillz

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 316

those that favors you of course!
While betting you should make it look fair but if you think you can make it you should also make the bet that so you can maximize your winnings.
at least i think so :P

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12-01-2011 , 09:02 PM

POPPYisABUSED69

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 116

if you can play 1k ++ games 4 tabling? probably takes you 10 days make it
1:1 bet a high amount profit??

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12-01-2011 , 09:02 PM

Hundrye

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 2,293

I haven't checked how many games it is exactly but plenty of people would be a lock to win this bet if they really wanted to so it's all dependent on how much you guys think you can grind so we can't comment on this imo

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12-01-2011 , 09:03 PM

jenbones

adept

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 908

Ideally i'd like people to post fair prices, cause my friend and I want to see which prices are fair, we're always gona try and hustle a favourable price otherwise.

Maybe if i like some of the prices i'll open it up to 2+2ers aswell

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12-01-2011 , 09:04 PM

jenbones

adept

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 908

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hundrye

good point, any info appriciated guys

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12-01-2011 , 09:21 PM

coffeeyay

See my staking thread

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,536

27k vpps is a **** ton of games at 60s or below. It's about 2.7k 100s hyperturbos for reference. Not sure how many 60s, but probably more than 4k. It'll be quite hard to make it. If I were a betting make I'd lay 2$ to your 1$ that you don't make it.

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12-01-2011 , 09:26 PM

jenbones

adept

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 908

Quote:

Originally Posted by coffeeyay

if this helps at all i've been playing 60 hypers since they started running and turbo's before that, so it's gonna be too tough for me to take 2:1 i think.

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12-01-2011 , 09:27 PM

TheClowns

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 205

If the bet is high enough you don't even need to be a winning player at 4-tabling and you can easily do it and still win a lot of money with the side bet. I think to make it fair you would need to put a minimum ROI or make it kind of small. Higher the bet is more your edge on him could be.

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12-01-2011 , 09:40 PM

#10

jenbones

adept

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 908

bets only like $100/200

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12-01-2011 , 09:46 PM

#11

JohnnyDrama030

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 1,200

$60 hypers are 6,93vpp and run all day long. ~ 4k games shouldnt be that big of a problem if you really wanna do it.

do i get this right, the bet is only $200?

then its more about how much you value super nova/how much it is worth i guess.

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12-01-2011 , 10:52 PM

#12

jenbones

adept

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 908

yeah its pretty sucky to just bet 200, if people want to bet vs me doing it then write max bet and odds you'll give.

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12-02-2011 , 02:00 PM

#13

HoyaSaxa123

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,301

Roi criteria?

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