PokerStars - 30/60 NL (3 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 760
Hero (SB): 740

Hero posts SB 30, BB posts BB 60

Pre Flop: (pot: 90) Hero has T 3

Hero calls 30, BB checks

Flop: (120, 2 players) 4 8 6
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (120, 2 players) 5
BB checks, Hero bets 100, BB calls 100

River: (320, 2 players) 2
BB checks, Hero ?

Oppo is a reg, he may def be calling turn without a made straight or a draw.
Question is: shall I value on the river or not?

check back, cant see this being bad check but I can see this being bad bet

what about 1/3 of the pot?
I think that gto this a bet, isn't it?

You should look at this in a solver if you can. I think GTO would mostly half pot the turn. I think GTO wouldn't have a 1/3 pot sizing on river much at all. I think 3X checks the river mostly. Like none said, it's pretty easy to imagine a bet here being bad. Many regs will way overfold to your turn bet, especially since you sized kind of big.

So I run a sim for this hand and its mixed around 50/50 for betting river and yeah, we dont bet smaller than 1/2 pot and its most used sizing.
BB probes 1bb ott with almost everything except 2nd and 3rd pair and checks a bit of air and straights.
Basically gto bets small blockbet sizings turn and river with very wide range - straights, pairs, air.
I imagine average reg wont play like this.
Nit regs prob check almost everything here and play nitty.
Vs them just play polar, bet and barrell your air and very strong hands and check rest, in this case this is not strong enough so check.
Very agroo reg will prob pressure you a lot, like probing and barreling wide with bigger sizings, Id guess these type of players will also probe straights too much, so vs them you should actually bet small river as they wont have many 7x and are very likely to call some of their made hands which they will have a lot otr.

All right, thanks!

turn you would want to bet a wide range of hands, so clearly half pot is a much better choice. then you can also vbet river more easily because villain's range is wider.

Strongly agree with ohly.

Also, I wouldn't bet this river.