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Useful formula to know how bad you run

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04-16-2015 , 12:53 AM

yrmom

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 3,921

I wanted to find the odds of losing x games out of a sample of n games recently, and couldn't find the answer on google. This lead me to calculating it myself.

See this article if you want to see how to get to the results. The formula is:

[(P^X) * (1-P)^(n-x)] * (n!/[x!(n-x)!])

Where P is the probability of losing a game (55% would be 0.55).

You can do stuff like calculate the odds of losing 18 out of 25 games fairly easily. If you want to know the odds of losing 18 or more games, you'd have to sum the result of 18+19+...+25, which you could in wolfram alpha.

Last edited by yrmom; 04-16-2015 at 01:13 AM.

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04-16-2015 , 01:11 AM

angel zera

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 857

if i lose more than 3 consecutive matches i just conclude that the site is rigged

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04-16-2015 , 04:52 AM

xkcd

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 448

You have clear leaks in your google search skills

This is textbook binomial law:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

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04-16-2015 , 05:40 AM

coon74

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 10,684

Yeah, I learned it at high school, yawn.

Thanks for linking us to your blog, though

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04-16-2015 , 09:53 AM

yrmom

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 3,921

Quote:

Originally Posted by coon74

Yeah, I learned it at high school, yawn.

Thanks for linking us to your blog, though

Well I knew about the combinatorial function, I didn't know about the PMF function (which is precisely the one above). Still, getting to a well known result basically by yourself is always nice

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