PokerStars - 15/30 NL (3 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 35.17 BB
Hero (BB): 14.83 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 9

SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero raises to 3 BB, SB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) A T 6
Hero bets 1.83 BB, SB calls 1.83 BB

Turn: (9.67 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero should 99 become a bluff or not?
what about the cbet on the flop?

Flop Cbet is fine especially on A high board. You can’t go wrong a 30% pot Cbet w anything here.

Why turn 99 into a bluff? What better hands are we folding out? Why not just check and let him check down his 6X 87 TX ? He has few pure air combinations with no showdown value on 8 turn...people check down QJ here very often w Q high showdown value.

Tx would be the bluff goal. But I think check it is a spew move

Yea, people just aren’t folding 2nd pair at this stack to pot ratio and we just have way too much showdown value anyways

Are x/calling here vs a ship?

Id check/fold vs jam which in theory is just very bad but I dont think fish bluff jams this turn that much if at all, but I wanted to see how are other options so I run a sim for this hand and gto is shoving turn, also BB is not that weak here, besides Tx, air, some Ax he has a lot of pair + straightdraw hands and flushdraws, and I also played with ranges and I just couldnt get BB to do anything but jam turn.

I guess we either are jamming for value, no pair + sd and >fd+over to T hands should fold or either even if we are playing someone very tight and getting called almost only by better hands we benefit a lot from SB folding all drawy type of hands.
And I used GTOish ranges pre where BB will have some Ax, but in practice chances SB having A is supersmall which makes turn jam even better, so I guess shipping turn is prob best.

nice analysis. makes sense to me. i've been noticing recently i'm not aggressive enough in these very low SPR situations, especially OOP.

I thought that jamming was an option, but I guess for the bad reasons maybe