PokerStars - 10/20 NL (3 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 45.5 BB
SB: 29.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 A

SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero checks

Flop: (2 BB, 2 players) 8 2 7
Hero checks, SB bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

Turn: (10 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, SB bets 4 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, SB calls 4 BB

River: (26 BB, 2 players) K
Hero checks

Oppo looked to me quite aggressive (22/34 on the flop). Is it reasonable to turn my pair into a bluff? the idea is to make him fold any low club card/ maybe some Q/8 overplayed
what about the river check? should I shove at this point representing a A/K club?

I would fold flop to a 200% bet.

I would usually, but oppo had a high aggression factor on the flop ( 22/34)

That doesn't seem very aggressive to me, unless of the 22 observed cbets he's used 75%+ pot sizings most of the time. How often have you seen big cbets?

You should include some explanation for adjustments like this in the OP bc someone is almost certainly going to question it haha. If you don't include an explanation for read-based adjustments in OP, I always just assume it's readless.

I have seen one pot cbet and the others were 50%. The over bet on the flop looked like a protection bet, considering the turn underbet ( or close to underbet)

I agree, which is why I think you should just fold flop. It's going to be stuff that crushes you a lot, like 2 pair, overpair, K8 no club or something (things fish might bet for protection). I don't think it makes sense for villain to be betting something for protection that you are ahead of. You basically have a pure bluffcatcher imo.

The fact you have never seen a flop overbet is more reason to fold imo.

Yeah thanks,hand miserably played.

Playing against large flop sizings is really weird.

Btw oppo had Tc4x, checked back on the river.

Here's GTO response vs a 200% flop sizing on this board. GTO basically never uses overbet sizings on this board, but I solved to a high accuracy so results should be accurate/meaningful.

I think almost anyone we play is going to have a 200% range that is higher equity than GTO, so we should be continuing tighter than this. Also, when villains overbet flops, their turn aggression is usually super high. In the simulation I ran, turn barrel frequencies are only 20-60% depending on the turn card. The higher turn aggression makes it a lot harder to realize equity/get to showdown w bluffcatcher type hands.

So higher equity flop cbet + much higher turn aggression = massively overfold flop imo.

I see, thank you very much. If I read it correctly ( I don't use solvers) it is always a call and sometimes even a raise according to gto. The raise part really puzzles me being a limped pot. FWIW I agree that the call is very bad and spewy considering that this a 40 chips pot.
I bet that the solver folds on the turn card.

A7 is always a call, but I think that could change to a fold soo easily by just slightly altering villain's strategy...but yea in GTO it's always a call. A7 doesn't block the bluffs in villain's range at all, so I guess that's why it chooses it to bluff very occasionally...it's also one of the hands with the least stable equity we have in our range so thats probably another reason it chooses to raise some (on club cards, we're pretty much dead vs villain range...almost everything else in our range has at least a club).

Yea, it's always a fold to half pot turn bets on club turns. GTO is basically never raising club turns vs any barrel size. The turn/river play after the flop overbet is actually super weird and I wouldn't expect a lot of it....super high turn donk from BB 1/3 pot.

Our opponents of course are playing nowhere near a GTO strategy with overbet flop sizings, but I just think it's valuable to see GTO response bc there's basically no chance we should be playing any wider than that (and likely tighter as I said). For example, I would kind of easily fold 84hh to this 200% flop bet in-game, but I wouldn't be nearly as confident in that fold as I am after running this solve.