PokerStars Hand #219529469270: Tournament #3029988103, €9.20+€0.80 EUR Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) [AAMS ID: M4F45115E809EASF] - 2020/10/19 12:41:46 CET [2020/10/19 6:41:46 ET]
Table '3029988103 1' 3-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: pensodasolo (998 in chips)
Seat 3: TGBM1337 (502 in chips)
TGBM1337: posts small blind 15
pensodasolo: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pensodasolo [3h Ad]
TGBM1337: raises 36 to 66
pensodasolo: calls 36
*** FLOP *** [6h Ac 4h]
pensodasolo: checks
TGBM1337: checks
*** TURN *** [6h Ac 4h] [7h]
pensodasolo: checks
TGBM1337: checks
*** RIVER *** [6h Ac 4h 7h] [4c]
pensodasolo: bets 65
TGBM1337: raises 160 to 225
pensodasolo:?

I either block the flush with my 3, one straight (3-5). Plus the combos 6-4, 7-4 are less likely and I think he would bet the first one on the drawy flop. I dunno whether he would bet the turn with 4-5 for protection. I played the hand miserably, but I think the river bet appears very weak to oppo,

I feel like they have it here so much, but I’m not folding an underrepped too pairs with flush and straight blockers either. I call. Again, I just don’t see people not cbetting flopped flush draws (and gutshots on this particular board) very often. If we’re flatting A3o pre vs a 2.2x at 16.5bb then we think he’s opening too tight, so he shouldn’t have much 4x in his range here.

easiest 3bet jam pre, I dont think you can get big enough sample at your stake to ever justify flating Ax 16bb, also I dont see why we would check turn, so much value in betting and we dont want to give free cards.

Preflop and turn more important than river here for sure.

I don't remember his stats, but probably had a very low preflop raise %. If it is your first raise on 20 bands I don't jam this one

It doesnt look very good, but still imo its not good enough reason, esp shallow, people usually tend to have somehow polarized raising ranges and we just need something like 55-60% folds to make this alright jam.

Playing oop is very hard, its sooo rare that flat will be better than jam, even vs someone with tight raising ranges, this hand illustrates situation perfectly, ok you flat this, what now?
You hit top pair, best case scenario and you are playing this hand super passively and are even considering folding river after you checked two times here so why do you flat it in the first place? If you think someone is playing such a nutted range that this is your best line than just fold preflop

If there is a A on the board they often overbluff feeling entitled to do that as the board hits their range. I don't think he folds often preflop here ( btw he had 66, he didn't even shove it)

if they have hands to overbluff A boards, that means we probalby can jam pre.

I mean sure there are people vs who flat is better, but if you decide to flat, you just cant check down your A fearing to run in to bigger A, you play it agroo to get max value from other hands, like in this hand you bomb turn and river to get value from underpairs and draws.

If you really think this guy raises preflop such a strong range he wont fold much and when we are called we are crushed, than this seems clear fold preflop, I just cant see how you can make this hande +ev flat 16bb vs such a strong range

I don't know, I think folding is better than jamming against a super nitty

I think the weak AXo is pretty close between flat and jam like 14-18bb range actually. I tend to 3bet it a lot bc I just feel pretty biased toward that bc I'm a fish, but I've seen exploitative ranges from guys like coffeeyay and others in the past where they were flatting these hands around this depth (A2o-A6o and some of the weak suited AX). Definitely interested if anyone (none?) can provide some more data backing up why 3bet is significantly better?

Yeah, I have some data, but wont go in details, I was flatting basically almost all Ax but the strongest ones, for years, and only 3b jamming vs high mr %(something like 60%+, smaller % shallower, and 3b jamming under 15bb vs anyone) it was based on what you just said, some old ranges and mentality, than someone really really good told me its bad and I should just auto 3bet them, and thats what I did, I didnt care if it was 1/20 raise or my hud showed 20% raise, and I can tell you the difference is 85bb/100 on my sample, which is not small at 15s-100s.
Sure its not so easy to say what is better vs really tight players, but I can say for sure its better to 3bet jam too much than too less and unless you know for sure what are you doing and have very solid reads 3bet jam will be better 99 times out of 100

I think there’s just a massive assymetry between it sometimes being slightly better as a flat and sometimes being as much as massively better as a jam. It’s so rarely going to be a terrible jam. And yea open raise frequencies can be incredibly misleading. I’ve had a lot of success just jamtarding it too.

Are you jamming weak Ax suited too? Are you jamming A2o-A7o up to 25bb? I’m not fwiw.

Yeah, imo playing oop is just very tough, and people overestimate how good they can do oop even vs fish.

Makes sense. Thanks.

16-20bb eff. is not that shallow for me. but agree that below 20bb, 3bs vs pretty much anyone cannot ever be terribly wrong nor much different from callin, in EV.
20+bb vs fisk no 3bs any less A8, vs regish, some weaker Ax, but not all.

i guess if one has like well above avarage lazyness volume then unless specific reads jaming any Ax at any stacksize cannot be terribly wrong now can it.


also, fact that playing is OOP tough is nottin new.
but also its a position like any other that has its own corks and features and strategic attack-points, to balance out the inevitable chip loss that comes with playing OOP.

it just takes a bit more effort chilling there in the out-of-comfort zone.

as plyed.
yes will stab OTT for value, thanks very much.

river is very meh
river raise in general ultra valueheavy by pop. tend. (fish)
i think opponent has here too often trips+ thus folding tho tough be correct move imho.

in alien world of poker-spins, river raises are as consistently toptopvalue as rake thats is taken every game. talking here vs fish/readless all that.

you have pretty much the top of your range here , its kind of close. Althouhg i'd fold because I dont see people bluffing too much with chb two times + raise river, people dont slowplay enough to be ok to call A3 here , maybe start with 4x or better