Hi,

I’m reviewing my database to improve my preflop game in spin and go. Here are my results for defending [K2o,K3o…K7o] in BB vs BU ( 3 handed ) and SB fold. You can see results here:

https://gyazo.com/39e02b7c26327e28d94b0201d690f438

(Below I took 60 as standard deviation cause I think there is a mistake with the average made by PT4)

I calculated a confidence interval for this sample and got this. Copy and paste from google spreadsheet formula:

Confidence interval wanted: 90%

standard deviation (bb/100): 60

hands/100: 1,6 (sample is 160 hands)

results (bb/100): -125,51

Confidence interval obtained: 98,69 (bb/100)

Confidence interval with results: [ -26,82 ; -224,20 ]

- Are my maths correct here?

If so, given this confidence interval I can’t conclude folding is better than calling for those hands.

I’d like to make sure both my maths and methodology are correct here so I can check different preflop situation.

What do you think?

Thanks a lot!

not sure what the confidence interval is, never used that myself, i think the sample here is way too small to determine anything tho and id go and ask some friends for there samples aswell or build a bigger one myself.

it also depends if its a fish or a reg opening on the BTN which will need an even bigger sample

come back with a larger sample 100,000 hands and even if your the biggest fish in the world you wouldn't be able to lose at those rates.

Poker also has something called "CARD DISTRIBUTION" and you could run KK into AA 10 times in a row or vice versa, we need to eliminate that factor or minimize it, why your sample size is WAY to small.

where did you get the google formulas for this ? could you mind linking ?

your sample is too small as already suggested, as well as even arriving to the same results over a larger sample might not necessarily mean that you should not defend them pre, but perhaps improve your postflop game

Thanks for your replies. Clearly the sample is too small, but do the maths are correct here? So I can do the maths again when I get a larger sample.

You need to use a google sheet and apply this formula.

https://support.google.com/docs/answer/3093988?hl=en

Does that help?

are you forgetting that this is BTN v BB and you are already at -100bb/100 as soon as you post the blinds? i wouldnt be suprised if those hands where losing slightly more than 100bb/100, either way i think they are gonna be pretty damn close