[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $14.10 Buy-in (10/20 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37682075

BB: 530 (26.5 bb)
BTN: 440 (22 bb)
Hero (SB): 530 (26.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A Q
BTN folds, Hero raises to 50, BB calls 30

Flop: (100) 5 3 9 (2 players)
Hero bets 50, BB calls 50

Turn: (200) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets 100, Hero?

I shove. We are ahead of villain's draws and I don't think he will bet 3x, 5x, 66-88 here. I'd also expect villain to float this flop with some hands like JT/KQ/KJ/QJ/A4/A2.

Assuming he flats 95s+ 97o+, 33/55 pre, he has 25 combos of trips/FH here that we are effectively drawing dead against. If he bet/calls all FDs and open enders that he also flats pre with (64, 76, A2hh, A4hh, A6hh-A8hh/AThh, K2hh, K4hh, K6hh-K8hh, KThh-KQhh, Q2hh, Q4hh, Q6hh-Q8hh, QT/QJhh, J4-J8hh, JThh, T4hh-T8hh, 84hh-87hh, 76hh, 64hh), 65 combos call and we have 68% equity, though we could very easily take out some of these hands as I'd expect the OESFDs and gutshot+FDs to raise the flop.

If we give him the floats I listed above and assume he b/f's them, then that's 80 combos we get to fold.

Assuming he doesn't float the hands listed above and doesn't raise flop with big draws,

We lose 430 chips 50.8% of the time and win 1,060 chips 49.2% of the time, so shoving is immediately +EV. Even taking out the big draws (64, 76, 68, A4, A2 of hearts), I'd still think we have a profitable shove and that assumes villain never floats worse and then bets the turn.

Despite the hand where I think calling is clearly better than shoving (funny you never compare your decision to calling), you're mixing up stuff in your calculations:

You're mixing up relative and absolute stacks here.

If you call losing -430 chips (relative to 430) u have to call winning +630 chips (relative to 430) and compare it to fold which is 0 chips (relative to 430)

If you call winning +1060 chips (absolute stack after winning) u have to call losing 0 chips (absolute stack after losing) and compare it to folding which is +430 chips (absolute stack after folding)

It doesn't change your conclusion but it's a significant misconception that would lead to wrong interpretations.