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spin go. heavy or common variance? spin go. heavy or common variance?

02-27-2023 , 05:17 AM
Guys, I would like to know how normal and frequent is this break even period I'm going through?

in the graph below, the vertical column on the left represents my buyin gains/losses. at the bottom, horizontally, is the number of tournaments played. almost 4000.

notice that my graph has only moved sideways from the 750 games so far. there are almost 3000 games without evolving.

this chart does not contain any other type of earnings, such as rakeback, for example. it's just buyins won/lost and the volume of games

my doubts:

how often will a period like this of 3000 games happen without winning or losing buyins? once every 10000 games? once every 30000 games?
...

what is the ideal volume of tournaments that I need to have to know precisely what my ROI is?

heavy or common variance?

spin go. heavy or common variance? Quote
02-27-2023 , 11:56 AM
It looks a little closer to starting at game 1250 or so, but it's a difficult question either way.

You never really truly know, it's sort of like putting a random opponent on a single hand, it would just be one guess (perhaps one valid guess of many valid guesses).

You're constantly playing different skilled opponents and even the best expectation stats aren't giving you a perfect picture of every relevant variable. That said, some of those stats will give you a more accurate picture than results alone will.
spin go. heavy or common variance? Quote
02-27-2023 , 01:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChicagoRy
It looks a little closer to starting at game 1250 or so, but it's a difficult question either way.

You never really truly know, it's sort of like putting a random opponent on a single hand, it would just be one guess (perhaps one valid guess of many valid guesses).

You're constantly playing different skilled opponents and even the best expectation stats aren't giving you a perfect picture of every relevant variable. That said, some of those stats will give you a more accurate picture than results alone will.

If we zoom in on this graph, we can see that in game 763, I had 59 buyins won and in game 3791, I have 86 buyins won. that means in 3028 games (3791-763) i won 27 buyins (86-59)
this gives an ROI of 0.0089. Remembering that this does not consider rakeback or any other award, as I said.

so, in this period of 3028 games, I am not able to evolve

what stats would you suggest i start looking at to analyze my game beyond the results?
spin go. heavy or common variance? Quote
02-28-2023 , 02:45 AM
I posted some stats in this post https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1.../#post58045209
spin go. heavy or common variance? Quote
02-28-2023 , 11:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChicagoRy
It looks a little closer to starting at game 1250 or so, but it's a difficult question either way.

You never really truly know, it's sort of like putting a random opponent on a single hand, it would just be one guess (perhaps one valid guess of many valid guesses).

You're constantly playing different skilled opponents and even the best expectation stats aren't giving you a perfect picture of every relevant variable. That said, some of those stats will give you a more accurate picture than results alone will.
I posted some stats in this post https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1.../#post58045209
spin go. heavy or common variance? Quote
03-01-2023 , 05:30 AM
Being b/e for 2k games it's not that weird. And you need like 10k games to make some idea of your cev. Shouldn't focus on roi imo because you can have a losing cev and be winning by running good in bigger multis. And vice versa.
spin go. heavy or common variance? Quote
03-10-2023 , 08:31 AM
One can be BE or worse for even 20K games in terms of $ line profits in spins. It's real, but very low probability. It is not fun to experience this low possibility, I'd highly recommend not running bad because it sucks and is painful and does not generate as much $ profits as running good.

So it goes.
spin go. heavy or common variance? Quote
05-29-2024 , 09:48 PM
This is just a 70 buy-in downsing, very normal.

Last edited by PeaceAndLove7; 05-29-2024 at 09:48 PM. Reason: typo
spin go. heavy or common variance? Quote

      
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