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Old 03-11-2021, 03:47 AM   #501
silky28
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Re: Spin and Go Beginners Thread

Hey all,

Got back into Spins over the last couple of months. Things have gone quite well ~75cev over 1000 tournaments.

I have a few questions about PT4...

1) I've noticed something odd in the way PT4 is calculating all-in adjusted in 3-way pots. Basically it is under-valuing my all-ins.

Lets say SB goes all-in for 300 chips, BB is all-in for 300, and I call 300 making the pot 800. We turn over our cards an I am 40% to win. As I understand it, when I check my all-in equity adjusted in PT4 is should show 320 chips (40% of 800). But it never does...it is always much lower. Where as it should be 320 it will show like 120. Why is this? I meant to save an example of this from PT4 but i forgot and cannot find a hand...

2) PT4 is not reporting $ won properly above 3x. I am playing $1 games and won several $5 tournaments and 3 $10 tournaments but PT4 only shows my net profit at like $1.92 or something like that. Any idea why this is?

3) I understand that PT4 will not report all-in equity at the time of an all-in shove if the other players are not all-in. ie. If I jam AA with 4bb and both villains call but are not all-in. Is there a way around this? It is really annoying when I jam AA with 4BB only to lose to a straight and have PT4 show it as a negative equity play!
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Old 03-11-2021, 02:44 PM   #502
silky28
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Re: Spin and Go Beginners Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by silky28 View Post
Hey all,

Got back into Spins over the last couple of months. Things have gone quite well ~75cev over 1000 tournaments.

I have a few questions about PT4...

1) I've noticed something odd in the way PT4 is calculating all-in adjusted in 3-way pots. Basically it is under-valuing my all-ins.

Lets say SB goes all-in for 300 chips, BB is all-in for 300, and I call 300 making the pot 800. We turn over our cards an I am 40% to win. As I understand it, when I check my all-in equity adjusted in PT4 is should show 320 chips (40% of 800). But it never does...it is always much lower. Where as it should be 320 it will show like 120. Why is this? I meant to save an example of this from PT4 but i forgot and cannot find a hand...

2) PT4 is not reporting $ won properly above 3x. I am playing $1 games and won several $5 tournaments and 3 $10 tournaments but PT4 only shows my net profit at like $1.92 or something like that. Any idea why this is?

3) I understand that PT4 will not report all-in equity at the time of an all-in shove if the other players are not all-in. ie. If I jam AA with 4bb and both villains call but are not all-in. Is there a way around this? It is really annoying when I jam AA with 4BB only to lose to a straight and have PT4 show it as a negative equity play!
edit: for 1) sb all-in for 300, bb all-in for 200 (not 300), I call for 300.
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Old 03-12-2021, 06:27 PM   #503
teddybloat
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Re: Spin and Go Beginners Thread

PT4 calculates the allin EV from the time the cards are tabled.

So, yes, if you are allin pre and one villain makes 2pr+ post flop it will show you losing EV

It cannot work back and show your ev as though villains were all in pre as their getting to river very much depends on the cards and action to come. PT4s explanation can be found here:

Spoiler:


PT4 should account for multway pots where all players are all in pre accurately, maybe there is an issue to do with there being a side pot i'm not sure. they have a forum you can ask in

as for the incorrect prize pools make sure pokertracker has the correct tournament summary folder. if it does not have a summaryh it will assume a 3x i think
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Old 03-27-2021, 03:34 PM   #504
weeeez
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Re: Spin and Go Beginners Thread

Hi I've been playing expressos on winamax (spin n go), nitros mostly.
I'm not great at probabilities beyond standard % and I'd like to know what is the probabilty of not hitting the max multiplier after x number of games.

exemple: Expresso €100 €1,000,000 max jackpot
Probability 4 in 1,000,000 .
What's the probabilty of not hitting at least 1 time after 1 million games?
After 250000 games?

If anyone has the time to answer this I'll be very happy.
Also if you can put the formula so I can do the maths for others multipliers.
Thanks
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Old 03-27-2021, 03:59 PM   #505
rickroll
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Re: Spin and Go Beginners Thread

There's two ways to do this, one is too monte carlo it, the other is a simple formula

Probability of it not happening is 999,999/1,000,000 which is .999999

Then multiply that number by the amount of attempts. .999999^1,000,000=.3678

So the probability of it not happening over 1 million spins is about 37%, meaning you'll get it about 63% of the time you run a million spins.

Goodluck
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Old 03-27-2021, 04:54 PM   #506
weeeez
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Re: Spin and Go Beginners Thread

thank you so much!

Quote:
Probability of it not happening is 999,999/1,000,000 which is .999999
is this always this number or the 4 chances in a million makes this:
999,996/1,000,000 ?
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Old 03-27-2021, 10:27 PM   #507
rickroll
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Re: Spin and Go Beginners Thread

Yes it would change according to odds

You're four chances in a million is correct, your could also simplify it by swapping 4 in one million to 1 in 250,000 so 249,999/25000

If you're really serious about all the various scenarios then you can learn how to create monte carlo simulations using excel on YouTube in 1-3 hours probably but otherwise this formula works for general ideas

I strongly recommend all poker players read a book called the drunkards walk, it explains statistics for non math people and will totally change how you interpret the numbers when you see them
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Old 05-03-2021, 01:14 PM   #508
Il_First_Il
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Re: Spin and Go Beginners Thread

Hi Guys,

What are the pros and cons of std Spins v flash Spins? Which are the most profitable? Are they beatable?
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Old Yesterday, 01:09 PM   #509
KenyArkana11
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Re: Spin and Go Beginners Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Il_First_Il View Post
Hi Guys,

What are the pros and cons of std Spins v flash Spins? Which are the most profitable? Are they beatable?
I think it depends if you want to play more post flop or not. If you don't like post, just stick to flashes
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Old Today, 05:05 PM   #510
Il_First_Il
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Re: Spin and Go Beginners Thread

I guess the flashes are just about Nash ? Are they beatable?
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