Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny80
I got one about my redline. It's going down too fast imo. Do you think in shallow stack games like spins, preflop or postflop is where I should be focusing my attention if I'm to improve my non-showdown winnings?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nefirmative
Your preflop game has to be fairly solid. Preflop mistakes will be smaller but are much more frequent than specific postflop mistakes. Bad ranges pre also hurt you postflop.
Don't worry about your redline, focus on making the best decisions each hand. Plenty of crushers have a losing redline. Your redline will go up the more you're betting and the bigger you're betting because people will fold more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by coffeeyay
^this
The issue with the red line is that it's not a good predictor of EV. This is because there will be many decisions that are very close in EV, but have drastically different results in terms of red line vs blue line earnings (examples include bluff catching on river and thin value betting).
The one use in examining them is that if one of the lines is drastically worse than other winning regs then this gives an indicator of the types of places you should look for leakfinding. However, even in this case it's not the best of indicators anyways because the losses can be coming from a number of different spots and not all of them will be worth the same leakbusting EV. Some leaks will be unimportant to change while others will be very important, and the red line gives no ideas as to where these spots are or how important they are.
Cliffs: Ignore red/line blue line. Your time is better spent elsewhere.
Thanks for the analysis!
There's a weird inconsistency in my non-showdown winnings
Namely, over a small recent sample of 777 games (686 $0.25s and 91 $1s at Stars), my 3-max and HU red lines are pointing in opposite directions and are different at a statistically significant level. How normal is it?
Namely, the 3-max one is -19 chips per game while the overall 3-max EV is 36 cpg. The HU red line is +19 cpg (avg over all the games, not just those 564 - 72.6% of the sample - where I got HU; the avg per HU finish is 26) while the HU EV is 54 cpg (or 74 chips per top-2 finish). Thus the total red line is breakeven; the total sample EV is 90 cpg (the standard deviation of this estimate is 15 cpg), and 3-max is 40% of it (is this ratio on the high side?).
Apart from leaks, an explanation that I've come up with is that people who shove or overbet too often at 10/20-15/30 are abundant at 0.25s
but relatively unlikely to survive until the HU, so in the 3-max, while they're still in, I often have to give up my blinds or postflop pots, not only because of the pot odds but because I try to maximize the winrate in the whole tourney, whereas the HU phase is usually vs the more tight-passive subpopulation, who overfold to postflop aggression.
Last edited by coon74; 12-10-2018 at 06:52 PM.