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Spin evROI Noob Question Spin evROI Noob Question

12-06-2018 , 06:51 AM
Hi guys.

Currently I am grinding 2eus spins on .es network. So far the results are shown below.



My question is:

According to the results I won almost 60 chips per tourney. And as you see, my actual chip won is almost there with the adjusted one. So, I expect that my actual ROI and evROI should be same. No?

When I used the formula for spin evROI

(((60+500)/1500*0.93*3)-1)*100 my evROI is %4.16

With the assumption of I am running in line with my net adjusted chips won I can expect a profit right?

But no! So the question is what am I missing?
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12-06-2018 , 07:16 AM
Hi, I think you can run good in lower prize pools and bad In higher, mean your gained chips and ev chips can be profitable, but you can still lose money, maybe filter for prize pool and see what the breakdown is?
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12-06-2018 , 08:37 AM
If you're making exactly the chips you're expecting to make, you can still have a big deviation from expected winnings, because you might run cold in distribution of multipliers.

Exactly for that reason it's bad to measure results in these games with roi and that's why most spin players rather take chips/game or itm% as a measure.
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12-06-2018 , 02:43 PM
It's tilting me that the formula that I once wrote in an unfolded form solely for the explanation purpose is still in use in this awkward form. Come on, it's a simple linear function of cpg (EV of chips per game).

Rake,%ROI,%
90.182*cpg-9
80.184*cpg-8
70.186*cpg-7
60.188*cpg-6
50.19*cpg-5

The general function of rake (%) and cpg is:

ROI = ((100 - rake) / 500) * cpg - rake
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12-06-2018 , 04:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74
It's tilting me that the formula that I once wrote in an unfolded form solely for the explanation purpose is still in use in this awkward form. Come on, it's a simple linear function of cpg (EV of chips per game).

Rake,%ROI,%
90.182*cpg-9
80.184*cpg-8
70.186*cpg-7
60.188*cpg-6
50.19*cpg-5

The general function of rake (%) and cpg is:

ROI = ((100 - rake) / 500) * cpg - rake
Thanks for wrapping up

And I'am wondering your comments on my specific issue. Since, the buy-in is always the same I could not understand the explanations of running cold on distribution of prize pool.

I mean yeah the money won depends on the prize pools but when you run in line with your positive evROI how you can be in the negative side. Even you hit the minimum prize in all of the games still should not it be in positive?
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12-06-2018 , 04:55 PM
If you always hit the minimum prize pool, then you'd have to win 50% of the time just to break even.

In fact, I think most of my past downswings were rather triggered by the overly high frequency of 2x multiplier games than by misluck in all-ins or card distribution.

Besides, luck matters more in high multipliers than in low ones. If you hit three 2x's, a 4x and a 6x (so an average prize pool of 3.2x), win two of the 2x's but run bad in the 4x-6x and lose them both, then you'll be 1 buy-in down despite having won 500 chips in total.

Last edited by coon74; 12-06-2018 at 05:06 PM.
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12-06-2018 , 06:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74
If you always hit the minimum prize pool, then you'd have to win 50% of the time just to break even.

In fact, I think most of my past downswings were rather triggered by the overly high frequency of 2x multiplier games than by misluck in all-ins or card distribution.

Besides, luck matters more in high multipliers than in low ones. If you hit three 2x's, a 4x and a 6x (so an average prize pool of 3.2x), win two of the 2x's but run bad in the 4x-6x and lose them both, then you'll be 1 buy-in down despite having won 500 chips in total.
Thanks for the explanation! Now, I completely got it.
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