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set on wet board

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09-02-2014 , 07:21 AM

degi11

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 120

its against competetive player hes never bluffing here it looks like T8 or flush but he could have some two pairs so what do you think?

Full Tilt, $33.39 Buy-in (15/30 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): 1,450 (48.3 bb)
BB: 1,550 (51.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4

Hero raises to 60, BB calls 30

Flop: (120) J

(2 players)
BB bets 90, Hero raises to 240, BB calls 150

Turn: (600) Q

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 369, BB raises to 1,250 and is all-in, Hero calls 781 and is all-in

River: (2,900) T

(2 players, 2 are all-in)

Spoiler:

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09-02-2014 , 09:45 AM

Gladiatoranc

adept

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 1,112

Lets say he has straight or flush on the turn, do you think he would reraise all in? Isn't a bit overbetting?

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09-02-2014 , 10:00 AM

plappaslappa

grinder

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 440

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gladiatoranc

Lets say he has straight or flush on the turn, do you think he would reraise all in? Isn't a bit overbetting?

Yes, it's called the "fishiest face up move possible that levels regs into thinking they're good with one pair on the wettest board possible"

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09-02-2014 , 12:47 PM

I_LI_Jl

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 530

You're getting 3:1 with 10 outs, so yes villain is going to have a lot of flushes/straights here, but you still have to puke call.

For example, do some quick math, and giving villain a generous 25% equity when not value betting and a perhaps even more generous 79% equity when value betting, you get something like

(1-X)( (.21)(2119) + (.79)(-781) ) + X( (.75)(2119) + (.25)(-781) ) | x is the frequency villain is NOT value betting

And solving for 0

X = .129

So villain has to have a flush or str8 more than 87% of the time for folding to make any sense here. And that's giving very generous equity (probably at least 90% in reality).

Last edited by I_LI_Jl; 09-02-2014 at 01:09 PM.

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09-03-2014 , 06:00 AM

xkcd

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 448

Looks more like like medium-high value that nutted hand here. Imo in this spot you'll see more low str8s, 2 pairs hands than flushes. Just my 2 cents, not a turbo player.

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09-03-2014 , 01:28 PM

watergun7

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 2,796

You can't fold ott with this line.

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09-05-2014 , 11:02 AM

spartan1

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 761

That Qh OTT completes a few of the draws in his range, I'm wandering if we can check this turn card? If it's the 3h instead I'd be more inclined to vb to gain value from his straight draws that may call, if I was raised on the 3h turn if probably be inclined to fold. Since that card didn't fall, the queen represents some of the SD combos that now hit a pair and would value town himself with.

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09-05-2014 , 12:53 PM

Gladiatoranc

adept

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 1,112

Quote:

I'm wandering if we can check this turn card?

I like the idea of pot control on the turn by checking. The Q of hearts does pretty much completes everything.

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09-05-2014 , 06:48 PM

spartan1

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 761

Tough spot though, if we check with intentions of not folding to a bet on later streets, wandering if we should bet ourselves.

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09-05-2014 , 10:19 PM

#10

bjsmith22

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 2,235

maybe raise more on flop, otherwise i think this line is fine, just have to eat it when he has a straight/flush and we dont fill up. We cant think of folding here because villain still has such a wide range. There are so many combo draws and worse hands that can play this way

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